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September 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts

Roger J Smith
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thestixx Enthusiast

thestixx

Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
Posted

My first go. Fingers crossed I'm right 15.9

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

I'll bump my guess to 15.1C thanks

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

A slightly mind-boggling 15.7*C is my unusually daring estimate for this month.

Way, way above average, yet still some way short of the record. September sure is a wild card, much as April can be! :crazy:

 

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

I'd pour scorn on such mild predictions but the Euro barely gets rid of the 10C isothern over the next ten days. 

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

I'll do a full update for the 06z GFS, but the 00z would have the CET around 18.2C to the 10th or the joint warmest first third of the month on record with 1852 (a month that eventually finished on 16.3C, but was as warm as 17.8C to the 20th!).

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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

I'll do a full update for the 06z GFS, but the 00z would have the CET around 18.2C to the 10th or the joint warmest first third of the month on record with 1852 (a month that eventually finished on 16.3C, but was as warm as 17.8C to the 20th!).

I have 1st-10th being the warmest in 1898 (at 18.2C), which was then 17.4C to the 20th, and finished at 15.2C? September 1852 finished at 12.9C. I also have the warmest 1st-20th period as 1865 at 17.8C, and 1852 in the same period as 13.8C?

Forgive me if I've made a massive cock-up here!

Edited by Relativistic
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted
1 hour ago, Relativistic said:

I have 1st-10th being the warmest in 1898 (at 18.2C), which was then 17.4C to the 20th, and finished at 15.2C? September 1852 finished at 12.9C. I also have the warmest 1st-20th period as 1865 at 17.8C, and 1852 in the same period as 13.8C?

Forgive me if I've made a massive cock-up here!

1852 was a typo... but I meant 1865. Not sure why 1852 got into my head!
On my spreadsheet 1898 was 17.9C to the 10th though?

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Anywho, the outlook from the 06z GFS (not quite as record breaking as the 00z)

16.2C to the 1st (16.2: +0.8)
16.4C to the 2nd (16.6: +1.2)
16.2C to the 3rd (15.7: +0.4)
16.3C to the 4th (16.6: +1.9)
16.6C to the 5th (18.1: +3.0)
17.1C to the 6th (19.5: +4.4)
17.7C to the 7th (21.0: +6.0) [Record High: 21.1C]
17.9C to the 8th (19.2: +4.2)
17.5C to the 9th (15.0: +0.3)
17.4C to the 10th (16.4: +1.7)

Still the 6th warmest first 10 days if it comes off. An extended summer anyone?

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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

1852 was a typo... but I meant 1865. Not sure why 1852 got into my head!
On my spreadsheet 1898 was 17.9C to the 10th though?

Weird, my program spits out 17.9C as the value to the 10th in 1795, with only 1865 (18.0C) and 1898 (18.2C) above it. Seems to be consistent with my spreadsheet as well...

Whatever the case, both September 1865 and September 1898 started out very hot!

Edited by Relativistic
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted
1 minute ago, Relativistic said:

Weird, my program spits out 17.9C as the value to the 10th in 1795, with only 1865 (18.0C) and 1898 (18.2C) above it. Seems to be consistent with my spreadsheet as well...

Whatever the case, both September 1865 and September 1898 started out very hot!

I spotted the problem! I was averaging the first 12 days, not the first 10:fool:

Your stats are correct!

 

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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted
1 minute ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

I spotted the problem! I was averaging the first 12 days, not the first 10:fool:

Your stats are correct!

 

Ah I see, no worries!

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Corrigan87 Newbie

Corrigan87

Posted
  • Location: Ashurst, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, fog in winter. Warm & dry and thunderstorms in summer
  • Location: Ashurst, West Sussex
Posted

Bugger late again! Seems like a classic year of summer weather when the kids go back!

15.4C please

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