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September 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

September CET averages and extremes

22.6 ... warmest day (2nd, 1906)

16.8 ... warmest (2006)

16.6 ... second warmest (1729)
16.3 ... third warmest (tied 1865 and 1949)

16.0 ... fifth warmest (1795)
 

15.1 ... 2014 CET

14.3 ... average 2001-2015

14.0 ... average 1981-2010 and 1986-2015

13.7 ... average 1971-2000, 2013 CET
13.6 ... average 1961-1990
13.5 ... average 1701-1800, 1901-2000
13.3 ... average 1659-2015
13.1 ... average 1801-1900

13.0 .. 2012 CET

12.6 ... average 1659-1700, 2015 CET

11.3 ... coldest since 1952 and tied 14th coldest (1986)
10.7 ... coldest recent month and sixth coldest (1952)
10.6 ... fifth coldest (1703)
10.5 ... coldest (four tied, 1674,1675,1694,1807)

4.9 ... coldest day (28th, 1824)

___________________________________

 

post your forecasts before the end of August (penalties apply for forecasts posted 1-3 Sept, absolute deadline end of 3 September.)

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Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

14.5 please. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level

14.6 please

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert, Falkirk 37m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it!
  • Location: Larbert, Falkirk 37m asl

14.1 for me please

Edited by Christopher
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Below is the September CET from 1659-2015 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

ixVCFQd.png

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 16.8 and 18.0C after corrections. The average September following Augusts within that range is 13.7C.

The linear trend for the whole August record is +0.20C per century. Following this trend gives an September CET of 13.7C.
The linear trend since 1850 is +0.68C per century. Following this trend gives an September CET of 14.1C.
The linear trend since 1950 is +1.50C per century. Following this trend gives an September CET of 14.3C.
The linear trend over the last 50 years is +1.70C per century. Following this trend gives an September CET of 14.3C.
The linear trend over the last 30 years is +3.66C per century. Following this trend gives an September CET of 14.6C.

Our current run of mild Septembers is very similar to that which occurred in the early to mid 1700s, which had a peak 30 year average of 14.0C, compared to the current 30 year average of 14.0C.
The CET of 12.6C last September ended the longest run on record without a CET below 13C, 20 years.

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

19C  :(  Last sub 11C September in 1952.  Last sub 12C September in 1986.  Last sub 13C September in 2015.  Winter 2016/2017 is over before its even started.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

14.5 for me please

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

An early stab at 14.6C, thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Well I forgot to enter last month (before going on holiday), so getting in now whilst I remember. A optimistic 14.8C (although sadly I suspect more northern areas will keep on the cooler side of a pronounced north/south split).

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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.

I'll guess 13.5C. Also predicting a wet, maybe even very wet month. 

Edited by LetItSnow!
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

14.8C for me, a drier and slightly warmer than average month, though as last year shows a settled spell during September doesn't always mean warm CET wise.

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

Going for an early punt this month.

14.7c please

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
52 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

14.8C for me, a drier and slightly warmer than average month, though as last year shows a settled spell during September doesn't always mean warm CET wise.

Last September was odd - consistently sunny and dry but also quite cool. Average low at many stations in England hovered in the 6-7C range which is something you'd expect in Scandinavia.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

As is usual for this competition, I'll let my heart do the talking.

11.1C for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Proper Seasons,lots of frost and snow October to April, hot summers!
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria

I am confident of high-pressure extending over England and Wales bringing a warmer than usual September but not exceptionally so. So I will plump for 14.9C if I may. 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

15c cheers.

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Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

15.2C please!

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

A slightly optimistic 15.3 C for me, please.  Here's hoping we get a late summer burst of warm weather before an arctic winter descends upon us.....

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