Hurricane Earl

[mezzacyclone]

NHC  has classified previous invest 97L as a tropical storm between Jamaica & the Honduras/Nicaraguan coast.

See above link, 2nd advisory at 7pm bst.

Edited August 3, 2016 by mezzacyclone

[mezzacyclone]

a false 998mb 16.317N 80.733W (just under 200 mile NE of the Hond/Nic coastal border point) was recorded but higher accuracy HDOB`s put the lowest officially at 1002mb.

aircraft returning to base now.

Looking as though a big change is required if this does not landfall into Belize? but re-intensification exiting campeche into the southern BOC could be interesting as well as any more northern trajectory?

7pm update should detail max sus 50mph winds & slight strengthening,,,

 

Edited August 2, 2016 by mezzacyclone

[summer blizzard]

60mph, 996mb.

[mezzacyclone]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

60mph, 996mb.

Hurricane status imminent?

noaa recon in honduras bay area finding est surface 65mph winds & 987mb extrapolated pressure,

managing to stay of coast enough to slightly strengthen, slight meander WNW/NW-wards but still belize landfall.

[mezzacyclone]

NHC Special Update at 9pm BST indicated sustained 75mph surface winds hence final requiremant for category 1 hurricane status.

expected Belize landfall tomorrow early (local) morning, 

Earl has become a large cyclone with TS winds up to 140+ miles out of centre, favorable circumstances allow for further slight strengthening off the honduran coast but weakening upon land interaction.

minimal re-intensification upon exiting Campeche, Mexico expected due to brief exposure over the BOC.

[summer blizzard]

As i postulated a few days ago, Earl has become quite a large system and i must say it's also a pretty one. 

Not often you see 3 outflow channels which is a reflection of just how ideal conditions are. Just a shame it left it a bit late to develop, we'd have quite the monster had this got going early. 

Still, just over 24 hours to go from 45 to 75mph. 

Edited August 3, 2016 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

Earl has now made landfall near the capital of Belize. 

Damn shame it did too because you can see from the very dark convection and structure that if this were a thousand miles east, it would have deepened very rapidly.

[mezzacyclone]

25 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Earl has now made landfall near the capital of Belize. 

Damn shame it did too because you can see from the very dark convection and structure that if this were a thousand miles east, it would have deepened very rapidly.

Just goes to show RI due to such favorable conditions can make a large impressive organised 'cane from a TS in 24hrs!

& yes, given more time this would have definitely become a major!

certainly given a lot to consider for the next few month?

[Gray-Wolf]

Anything getting into the Gulf would show us just what an Atlantic Hurricane can turn into!!!

[Nouska]

Earl exits into the EPAC and morphs into Javier. Nice one UKMO!