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coldcomfort

Where do France and Germany go from here

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Tragically since the Serious Discussion forum was closed other despicable terrorist events have taken place across both Germany and France, the latest one involving the catholic priest being particularly heinous, even leading a few to suggest that some within the ISIS hierarchy itself might conclude the two islamist terrorists overstepped the mark.

From what I can see both countries really are now in a very dark and dangerous place, especially in the case of France, where it appears that mistakes after mistakes after mistakes have been and continue to be made.  The latest one possibly being one of the worst of all, because it's emerged that both the perpetrators in Rouen were known to the police and security services having both tried to get to Syria in the recent past.

In my humble opinion it is going to be extremely difficult for either country to turn things around any time soon, in fact if things do not continue to worsen I'll be very surprised (albeit very pleasantly), because to my mind they simply do not have either the correct levels of intelligence nor the correct structure in place to fight this scourge.  

Discuss.....

Edit-: in the last hour Merkel has made it clear any change of direction on migrant policy will not be happening... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36912141

Edited by coldcomfort

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Words fail me regarding how low these savages will stoop, the latest one has left myself and many others particularly disgusted, to mutilate and kill elderly man in the last few years of his life in such a brutal merciless way is beyond my comprehension.What threat was he to islamic state? What threat was he to anyone?

I dont have any answers, im not sure anyone does, but reading about this elderly priest and how the locals in his village described his kind friendly personality actually brought tears to my eyes.

I wonder if there is such a thing as the devil and he is revealing himself in the disguise of islamic state

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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Words fail me regarding how low these savages will stoop, the latest one has left myself and many others particularly disgusted, to mutilate and kill elderly man in the last few years of his life in such a brutal merciless way is beyond my comprehension.What threat was he to islamic state? What threat was he to anyone?

I dont have any answers, im not sure anyone does, but reading about this elderly priest and how the locals in his village described his kind friendly personality actually brought tears to my eyes.

I wonder if there is such a thing as the devil and he is revealing himself in the disguise of islamic state

Agreed....I think the main concern for me is the lack of any sort of plan by both France and Germany going forward, indeed Merkels insistence today that they roll on with no real change to german immigration policy kind of reinforces my fears. That said I don't profess to have any short term answers either, but I think the old adage of 'if you find yourself in a hole stop digging' is probably relevant to a degree here.  Both the germans and more particularly the french police/security services have got to sort out the way in which they deal with local communities however as a matter of urgency. Here in the UK we have learnt to do this much better and more efficiently, but then again we have been fighting terrorism in one for or another for close to 50 years, so it really is time they started watching and learning just how we do things. 

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To  be honest, as I have said previously,I think  that sooner or later these individuals who are currently under surveillance will out of necessity have to be interned. .

Edited by 78/79

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I'm still a bit confused as to why Britain hasn't had a similar amount of attacks? You'd have thought we'd have been top of the list when it comes to jihad?  

The security forces in this country are doing a good job.

 

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3 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

I'm still a bit confused as to why Britain hasn't had a similar amount of attacks? You'd have thought we'd have been top of the list when it comes to jihad?  

The security forces in this country are doing a good job.

 

Luck? And only last week two people tried to abduct an RAF man with a knife, i dread to think what they were planning, an efit of the attackers points in only one direction as far as im concened..

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I suppose we have had a lot of practice in dealing with terrorism what with the IRA , et al, . 

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27 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

I'm still a bit confused as to why Britain hasn't had a similar amount of attacks? You'd have thought we'd have been top of the list when it comes to jihad?  

The security forces in this country are doing a good job.

 

Most of Britain is better integrated particularly North of the border. 

I don't think there are any sink arab estates in Britain like you would find in parts of France. 

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19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Luck? And only last week two people tried to abduct an RAF man with a knife, i dread to think what they were planning, an efit of the attackers points in only one direction as far as im concened..

The one thing it has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with is luck. There are several contributing factors, not least our closed border system that means the free movement of people, arms and explosives is more difficult, but the overriding reason is our security services who are second to none. Over the years we have learnt just how important it is to have friends within certain communities, watching, listening and reporting back on those who they know wish to do us harm, moreover the police do a very good job in general too as far as putting themselves about and being approachable is concerned. Compare and contrast that to France or worst still Belgium, where certain sections of the community hold them in total contempt and in turn create ghettos/no go areas where the ordinary police force simply cannot do their work. You only had to see the reception they got in Molenbeek post the Paris atrocity to see just how completely alienated they are by significant numbers of the population.

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29 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

I'm still a bit confused as to why Britain hasn't had a similar amount of attacks? You'd have thought we'd have been top of the list when it comes to jihad?  

The security forces in this country are doing a good job.

 

They have indeed! ....

but ... will they be able to counteract this new threat of the internet radicalised lone wolf we are seeing now.

As for the two French who tried to get to Syria and were brought back; why were they not waved off on a one-way ticket? An easy solution there.

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7 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

The one thing it has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with is luck. There are several contributing factors, not least our closed border system that means the free movement of people, arms and explosives is more difficult...

Eh? I thought we didn't have any 'border controls'? Was that not the #1 reason for pushing for a Brexit?

But anyway, as we all know, more than 90% of terrorist attacks are made by people born in whichever country they happen to attack...

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Eh? I thought we didn't have any 'border controls'? Was that not the #1 reason for pushing for a Brexit?

But anyway, as we all know, more than 90% of terrorist attacks are made by people born in whichever country they happen to attack...

Try not to drag us back down that road again Ed. i said it was a contributing factor, but the overriding one was the professionalism of our security services. Frankly I wish they spent more time explaining to the public the number of plots that they foil, rather than spending ages on covering each and every atrocity to the enth degree. All that does is gives encouragement to those thinking of joining their jihad imo.

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56 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

I'm still a bit confused as to why Britain hasn't had a similar amount of attacks? You'd have thought we'd have been top of the list when it comes to jihad?  

The security forces in this country are doing a good job.

 

And thank that they do. However doesn't mean one can be complacent though.

The last attack in France does demonstrate one reason why you should let these people go and not come back unless there's 100% evidence that they have reformed.

Ed the post you are missing wifuly is that if these people move across borders to meet people of the same ilk border controls allow you gather intelligence.

 

Sadly the open door policy by Germany has led to these attacks bar one mad man just as Isis said it would as has allowing known jihadists back. ISIS are laughing like mad. I think Merkels latest statement has nailed her defeat in the coming elections and may open the door to the far right in the future.

Edited by The PIT

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10 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

Try not to drag us back down that road again Ed. i said it was a contributing factor, but the overriding one was the professionalism of our security services. Frankly I wish they spent more time explaining to the public the number of plots that they foil, rather than spending ages on covering each and every atrocity to the enth degree. All that does is gives encouragement to those thinking of joining their jihad imo.

Drag us back to what, exactly? That, for the past six-months UKIP (along with its acolytes) has done just about everything in its power to convince us all that UK border patrols are about as much good as nothing?

Why the sudden conversion? Expedience?

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1 minute ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Merkel is continuing to allow refugees to enter the country. Luckily she refuses abandon her principles and fold under the wave of fear caused by these outlier attacks.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36912141

So, Germany at least is continuing on as is.

It will cost her the election though.

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2 hours ago, The PIT said:

It will cost her the election though.

Her approval ratings seem fine. Partly thanks to Brexit.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-07/merkel-s-poll-support-rises-as-germans-confront-brexit-turmoil

Even if it did effect her election chances, it would be nice to see a politician put the greater good above their own short term career prospects.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid

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10 hours ago, coldcomfort said:

From what I can see both countries really are now in a very dark and dangerous place, especially in the case of France, where it appears that mistakes after mistakes after mistakes have been and continue to be made.  The latest one possibly being one of the worst of all, because it's emerged that both the perpetrators in Rouen were known to the police and security services having both tried to get to Syria in the recent past.

 

In the UK its just a matter of time...

Just ONE terror suspect in the UK is under an official curfew despite at least 2,000 fanatics being at large in Britain 
 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3711679/Just-ONE-terror-suspect-UK-official-curfew-despite-2-000-fanatics-large-Britain.html

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3 hours ago, The PIT said:

It will cost her the election though.

Sadly not. CDU is still about 10% ahead with AfD in 3rd still. 

 

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7 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Sadly not. CDU is still about 10% ahead with AfD in 3rd still. 

 

A few more attacks will take care of that

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11 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Her approval ratings seem fine. Partly thanks to Brexit.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-07/merkel-s-poll-support-rises-as-germans-confront-brexit-turmoil

Even if it did effect her election chances, it would be nice to see a politician put the greater good above their own short term career prospects.

You know the saying the road to Hell is paved with good intentions.

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15 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Her approval ratings seem fine. Partly thanks to Brexit.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-07/merkel-s-poll-support-rises-as-germans-confront-brexit-turmoil

Even if it did effect her election chances, it would be nice to see a politician put the greater good above their own short term career prospects.

I guess the $64000 question is for the greater good of who, as there are million and millions of people on the continent saying certainly not us.

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3 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

I guess the $64000 question is for the greater good of who, as there are million and millions of people on the continent saying certainly not us.

Part of the problem is down to people perceiving Islamic terrorism to be a bigger threat to them than it is in reality. People are easily scared by terrorism despite the fact that you have a way better chance of winning the lottery than being directly effected by a terrorist attack. That's what makes it so effective. Sometimes you need calmer heads in positions to make the sensible decisions, rather than acting on the irrational level of fear and outrage that terrorism aims to cause.

Also, Merkel still appears to have an overall positive approval rating, so I guess the majority of Germany stand by her decision.

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Indeed Born. It really is hope over fear policy from Merkel.

It is heartening to see such positive leadership from a major power who is prepared to stand up to the xenophobes who play on peoples worries.

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17 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Part of the problem is down to people perceiving Islamic terrorism to be a bigger threat to them than it is in reality. People are easily scared by terrorism despite the fact that you have a way better chance of winning the lottery than being directly effected by a terrorist attack. That's what makes it so effective. Sometimes you need calmer heads in positions to make the sensible decisions, rather than acting on the irrational level of fear and outrage that terrorism aims to cause.

Also, Merkel still appears to have an overall positive approval rating, so I guess the majority of Germany stand by her decision.

Terrorism is scary, the clue is in the name really, but I think what is really driving this is the increasingly strongly held view that there is no real plan to turn the tide. People can see that increased bombing in the middle east really is not sorting the problem, it's fuelling it, moreover one look at the math suggests problems are likely to increase and not decrease if the current policy is not radically altered. Then of course you have to look at the whole balance of power across Europe, because her announcement yesterday did nothing other than embolden those already on the far right and push many in the middle even more towards the right, which can be good for absolutely no one. 

Frankly I would love to think yesterdays announcement was all about her profound belief in continuing to help others, as I genuinely think it was last year. However I now think she's simply rolled the dice and gone for **** or bust, too embarrassed to admit she got her initial call wrong and just hoping against hope that history eventually judges her favourably. Her speech yesterday was Cameron's Brexit announcement moment, like him she has just put her whole bank on red imo.    

Edited by coldcomfort

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