August 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[crucible72]

Cool and wet 15.1

[DAVID SNOW]

3 hours ago, Daniel* said:

I sense a heatwave towards the mid to latter part of the month.

17.7, please

Would not rule it out Dan for sure, maybe a 20 to 30 %  probability.

[davehsug]

16.8c please

[Corrigan87]

17.5C please :-)

[March Blizzard]

I'll go for 16.0C, please.

[Singularity]

An uninspiring 16.1*C is my estimate - could be an interesting temperature profile this month.

[AderynCoch]

Bland.

15.5

[Evening thunder]

Hmm.. tough one, depends whether/how much some of the model runs come off..

16.8C please

[Don]

Right, just about in time.  17.2C for me please.  I feel August could be rather humid and unpleasant.

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts at

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=6

This shows 67 on time forecasts with a median of 16.5 C. 

Will add in any late forecasts that appear. 

[Stationary Front]

Late one from me a warm 17.3 please

[BornFromTheVoid]

The hadobs site hasn't fully updated yet, but here's how the 06z GFS sees thing for the start of August:

15.8C to the 2nd (16.9: +0.1)
16.5C to the 3rd (17.9: +1.0)
16.8C to the 4th (17.8: +0.8)
16.9C to the 5th (17.2: -0.1)
17.1C to the 6th (18.1: +0.9)
17.6C to the 7th (20.9: +4.0)
17.6C to the 8th (17.8: +1.0)
17.6C to the 9th (16.9: +0.0)
17.3C to the 10th (15.3: -1.5)
17.0C to the 11th (13.5: -3.2)

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET averages

 

Date ____ Avg CET ___ cum CET ____ MAX 1772-2015 __ MIN 1772-2015

_01______ 16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.9 1995 _____ 11.9 1888

_02 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.6 1995 _____ 11.6 1822

_03 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.4 1990 _____ 10.5 1912

_04______ 17.0 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.4 1975 _____ 11.3 1812

_05 ______17.3 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.1 2003 _____ 11.3 1812

_06 ______17.2 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.5 2003 _____ 11.2 1823&1860

_07______ 16.9 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.8 1975 _____ 11.6 1898

_08 ______16.8 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.7 1975 _____ 11.5 1823

_09 ______16.9 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.9 2003 _____ 11.0 1931

_10______ 16.8 _______ 16.9 _______ 22.5 1773&1997__10.8 1892

 

_11 ______16.7 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.6 1997 _____ 10.8 1902

_12 ______16.8 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.2 1911 _____ 10.5 1912

_13______ 16.3 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.6 1911 _____ 10.5 1881

_14 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.3 1911 _____ 10.8 1912

_15 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1893 _____ 10.3 1829

_16______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1947 ______ 9.5 1888

_17 ______16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.4 1876 _____ 10.9 1888

_18 ______16.6 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.6 1893 _____ 10.3 1830

_19 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.8 1932 _____ 10.4 1839

_20 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.9 1995 _____ 10.5 1920

 

_21 ______16.4 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1984 ______ 9.8 1850

_22______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.4 1817

_23 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.3 1877

_24 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 21.5 1990 ______ 9.1 1864

_25______ 15.8 _______ 16.7 ________ 20.9 1899 _____ 10.5 1787,1843&1864

_26 ______15.7 _______ 16.6 ________ 20.6 1870 ______ 8,8 1864

_27 ______15.4 _______ 16.6 ________ 22.8 1930 _____ 11.0 1885&1890

_28______ 15.1 _______ 16.5 ________ 23.0 1942 _____ 10.5 1919

_29 ______15.3 _______ 16.5 ________ 20.6 1930 ______ 9.1 1812

_30 ______15.5 _______ 16.5 _______ 19.8 1808&2008__ 9.5 1890

 

_31 ______15.2 _______ 16.4________ 21.3 1906 ______ 9.2 1833

Edited August 2, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[Mr Maunder]

Very late, but 16.9 for me please.

MM

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 15.8C, while maxima look like being around the mid 19s, so an increase to 16.4C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

16.7C to the 4th (17.6: +0.6)
16.7C to the 5th (16.7: -0.6)
16.9C to the 6th (17.9: +0.7)
17.4C to the 7th (20.0: +3.1)
17.2C to the 8th (16.1: -0.7)
17.0C to the 9th (15.5: -1.4)
16.7C to the 10th (13.6: -3.2)
16.3C to the 11th (12.8: -4.0)
16.1C to the 12th (13.5: -3.3

A warm first week (+0.5C) followed by a very cool 5 days (-2.5C) is what the GFS is now going for.

[NorthYorksWeather]

14.8c here so far this month, thats 0.4c below average. A brief rise this weekend looks likely before dropping again next week. A significant above average month wouldn't go a miss, ideally August/September!

[Summer Sun]

16.6 to the 3rd

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

16.8 to the 4th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[Man With Beard]

There could be carnage on here this month. Latest models show potential for weather to go in a number of ways. A heatwave from August 12th - August 19th ish is a distinct possibility at the moment, but there's also the chance the Atlantic will roll back in quickly. No sense at all where things will go at all!

[Summer Sun]

16.8 to the 5th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 11.9C, while maxima look like reaching the high 22s, so an increase to 16.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

17.1C to the 7th (19.2: +2.3)
16.9C to the 8th (16.0: -0.8)
16.7C to the 9th (14.3: -2.6)
16.3C to the 10th (13.4: -3.4)
16.4C to the 11th (17.2: +0.5)
16.6C to the 12th (18.4: +1.6)
16.7C to the 13th (18.7: +2.5)
17.0C to the 14th (19.8: +3.1)
17.2C to the 15th (20.5: +3.7)

Lots of fluctuations in the recent GFS output regarding the medium term. Could be hot, could be cool, could switch between the 2. Uncertainty appears to be the main theme heading toward mid month.

[Gael_Force]

Keep that going BFTV; I've a big number on my CET guess.

[Summer Sun]

16.8 to the 6th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[seaside 60]

Net weather have the CET running at 1.49c over.

It will come down next week, but have a feeling that many of us will be well out on this month.

[NorthYorksWeather]

16.3c to the 7th. That's 1.1c above average, will be interesting to see how much it drops over the next few days, before a rise looks likely by next weekend.