August 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[cheese]

On 8/30/2016 at 20:47, vizzy2004 said:

August looking likely to be the first above average month since January here, currently 15.7 which is 0.2c warmer than the 81-10 average.

Wow, I'm surprised. All months except March and April have been warmer than average here. 

Edited September 1, 2016 by cheese

[BornFromTheVoid]

August confirmed as 17.0C, 0.6C above the 81-10 average and the joint 34th warmest on record.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Congrats to @CongletonHeat and @DiagonalRedLine for getting it spot on!

Edited September 1, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid

[Relativistic]

On 29/08/2016 at 18:35, Relativistic said:

So far we have one day this August whose provisional daily CET mean is greater than 20C (20.5C on the 23rd), and it's not impossible that this could end up sub-20C after corrections. With the possibility of this month ending up at 17C or above, I thought I'd look to see how many Augusts have managed an overall mean of 17C+, but not managed any 20C+ days.

Only five Augusts have managed it:
- 1801, overall mean CET of 17.1C.
- 1802, 17.2C.
- 1819, 17.4C.
- 1944, 17.0C.
- 1991, 17.1C.

(It's worth noting that 17C+ Augusts average four 20C+ days. The most ever was 14 in 1997.)

I'd say the odds of joining the club aren't in 2016's favour because there's still a good chance of finishing below 17C, and we also require a reasonably large downward correction of 0.6C on the 23rd (they do happen though).

 

We didn't quite make it with this one. We met the 17.0C+ criterion, but both the 23rd and 24th finished with daily means of 20.2C. Close, but no cigar.

 

2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

August confirmed as 17.0C, 0.6C above the 81-10 average and the joint 34th warmest on record.

 

The second half (16th-31st) finished as the 15th warmest on record (17.6C), between 1807 (17.5C) and 1857 (17.7C).

Edited September 1, 2016 by Relativistic

[reef]

The summer as a whole came in at 16.40C, making it the 39th warmest in 359 years, 7th warmest since 1976 and 15th warmest since 1900.

Certainly a very warm one in the CET zone.

[BornFromTheVoid]

No records were set with the daily mean CET this month, not with the maxima. The minima set one new daily record on the 7th with 16.3C, beating the old record of 16.2C set in 2003.

Of the 31 days this month, 19 days were above the 81-10 average, 10 were below and 2 were exactly average.

Of the 18 above average .......................... ..................... Of the 11 below average
8 were in the top 25 .............................. ......................... 0 were in the bottom 25
1 was in the top 5 .................................. ......................... 0 were in the bottom 5
0 were daily records ............................... .......................... 0 were daily records

The total downward correction in August was -0.07C, from 17.09C to 17.02C. Of the corrections, 19 saw drops, 12 saw increases and 0 days saw no change.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Some CET stats for the summer too:

Of the 92 days this summer, 56 days were above the 81-10 average, 33 were below and 3 were exactly average.

Of the 56 above average .......................... ..................... Of the 33 below average
16 were in the top 25 .............................. ......................... 1 was in the bottom 25
3 were in the top 5 .................................. ......................... 0 were in the bottom 5
1 was daily records ............................... .......................... 0 were daily records

The longest stretch of above average days was 13 from the 4th to the 16th of June. The longest below average spell was 9 days, from the 28th of June to the 6th of July.

[North-Easterly Blast]

August 2016 CET confirmed as 17.02*C.  For only the third time in 29 years, since 1987, the second half was warmer than the first half.  Since 1987, the only three years where the second half of August was warmer than the first half were 2005, 2008 and 2016.  This shows how the second half of August has largely escaped the warming trend seen at most other times of the year.

 

[Man With Beard]

11 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

August confirmed as 17.0C, 0.6C above the 81-10 average and the joint 34th warmest on record.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Congrats to @CongletonHeat and @DiagonalRedLine for getting it spot on!

Fairly relieved at that. At one point I thought we may have been looking at 17.5C - though funnily at the start of the month all the charts looked cold, I seem to remember!!

[cheese]

3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

August 2016 CET confirmed as 17.02*C.  For only the third time in 29 years, since 1987, the second half was warmer than the first half.  Since 1987, the only three years where the second half of August was warmer than the first half were 2005, 2008 and 2016.  This shows how the second half of August has largely escaped the warming trend seen at most other times of the year.

 

December and June have not warmed over the past 30 years. 

[Weather-history]

May is the only month that has yet to record a CET rounded to .0 this century.

The last time May did was 1989 with 13.0

[Optimus Prime]

On ‎01‎/‎09‎/‎2016 at 22:32, cheese said:

December and June have not warmed over the past 30 years. 

Not true. Both have but June less so;

1986-2015 period and 81-10 in brackets

June; 14.5c (14.5c)

December; 5.0 (4.6c)

 

[Relativistic]

26 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Not true. Both have but June less so;

1986-2015 period and 81-10 in brackets

June; 14.5c (14.5c)

December; 5.0 (4.6c)

 

December suffered a double whammy. The new average loses December 1981 (0.3C) and gains December 2015 (9.7C).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Taking a look at warming trends, I used a 5 year average (so the random hot or warm months at either end don't have too big an influence) then calculated the trends over 30 and 50 years. Below is the graph of this:

The vertical axis here shows the temperatures trend in terms of degrees Celsius per decade, with the 30 year trend on the left and 50 year on the right for each month

So over the last 30 years, the months that have shown little warming are March, July and August, while December very much bucks the trend with strong cooling.
Over the last 50 years, December is the only month not to show a warming trend.

Edited September 4, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid

[cheese]

3 hours ago, Optimus Prime said:

Not true. Both have but June less so;

1986-2015 period and 81-10 in brackets

June; 14.5c (14.5c)

December; 5.0 (4.6c)

 

So June hasn't warmed - and December was more or less the same for the 81-10 normals as 71-00. 

[cheese]

 

Seems like August was actually a good month widely across the UK. Nearly everywhere was sunnier than average. Even where rainfall was above average like here we still had in excess of 200 hours of sun. We had a similar number of rain days as most places down south (5-10) despite us being much wetter overall, reflecting how most of it fell on just 2 days - with one day having more rain than all of July!

Edited September 3, 2016 by cheese

[NorthYorksWeather]

3 hours ago, cheese said:

 

 

Seems like August was actually a good month widely across the UK. Nearly everywhere was sunnier than average. Even where rainfall was above average like here we still had in excess of 200 hours of sun. We had a similar number of rain days as most places down south (5-10) despite us being much wetter overall, reflecting how most of it fell on just 2 days - with one day having more rain than all of July!

Yeh even though we saw above average rainfall, a lot fell in just a few days towards the end of the month, with plenty of sunshine for the most part.

[J10]

Results now in based on the 17.0c figure, and thanks to everyone for their patience this month.

August 2016 CET New final.pdf

August 2016 CET New.xlsx

As correctly mentioned above

CongletonHeat and DiagonalRedLine got August spot on.

In the overall comp the top 3 has changed a great deal now being
Man With Beard (1st), CongletonHeat (2nd) with Roger J Smith (3rd)

However it really is very close and the closest it has ever been this time of year.

Onto the final summer seasonal results, and the standard this time has been stunning.

CongletonHeat won with 2 months spot on, and 0.2c out last month.
seaside 60 had the first 2 months spot on, was only 0.3c this month and ended up 2nd.

Dancerwithwings finished 3rd with 2 months 0.1c out and the other 0.2c out.

Any queries as ever please let me know.