August 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[Stationary Front]

Winter 1947 / 1948 wasn't special was it?

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

CET down here probably 19C-20C

Yes, but back say, 700 years , would the forests of SE England , return such a value, with the same synoptic ?

[LetItSnow!]

1 hour ago, Stationary Front said:

Winter 1947 / 1948 wasn't special was it?

It was a mild winter, with every month above average temperature wise. Wet too.

[Summer Sun]

17.1 to the 27th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today of 14.5C, while maxima look like hitting about 22C, so remaining on 17.1C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

17.1C to the 29th (17.3: +2.0)
17.1C to the 30th (17.4: +1.9)
17.2C to the 31st (17.8: +2.6)

A finish of 17.0C to 17.3C before corrections, and 16.6C to 17.3C after corrections most likely.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.6C

[March]

Sunny my back garden in Bedfordshire at 18C. 

[alexisj9]

On 27/08/2016 at 23:39, LetItSnow! said:

It was a mild winter, with every month above average temperature wise. Wet too.

Ah so those types of winter are nothing knew.

[Summer Sun]

17.1 to the 28th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a min of 11.7C and a max of around 21C, we should remain on 17.1C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

17.1C to the 30th (17.6: +2.1)
17.1C to the 31st (17.5: +2.3)

Looks quite likely to finish on 17.1C now, but still 17.0C to 17.2C possible, and 16.6C to 17.2C after corrections.

[Relativistic]

So far we have one day this August whose provisional daily CET mean is greater than 20C (20.5C on the 23rd), and it's not impossible that this could end up sub-20C after corrections. With the possibility of this month ending up at 17C or above, I thought I'd look to see how many Augusts have managed an overall mean of 17C+, but not managed any 20C+ days.

Only five Augusts have managed it:
- 1801, overall mean CET of 17.1C.
- 1802, 17.2C.
- 1819, 17.4C.
- 1944, 17.0C.
- 1991, 17.1C.

(It's worth noting that 17C+ Augusts average four 20C+ days. The most ever was 14 in 1997.)

I'd say the odds of joining the club aren't in 2016's favour because there's still a good chance of finishing below 17C, and we also require a reasonably large downward correction of 0.6C on the 23rd (they do happen though).

Edited August 29, 2016 by Relativistic

[crucible72]

Good chance of all 3 summer months being above average now, would be the first time since 2003

[Weather Boy]

54 minutes ago, crucible72 said:

Good chance of all 3 summer months being above average now, would be the first time since 2003

Surely June was not? Rather cool for me (not to mention dull and wet).

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Weather Boy said:

Surely June was not? Rather cool for me (not to mention dull and wet).

Not sure the weather in Royston is necessarily indicative of everywhere else!

 

[The PIT]

Unless there's a heatwave today we should finish on 16.5C which means a fairly average summer temp wise. June and July all close to average. Rainfall close to average as well.

[Weather Boy]

8 hours ago, cheese said:

Not sure the weather in Royston is necessarily indicative of everywhere else!

 

I meant that generally, June was poor, was it not, and then went on to give my location as an example!

Some exceptions, I believe towards the NW, but I understood that June overall was a very disappointing month, and therefore I don't think it's correct that all three summer months are going to be above average.

[Summer Sun]

17.1 to the 29th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Relativistic]

3 hours ago, Weather Boy said:

I meant that generally, June was poor, was it not, and then went on to give my location as an example!

Some exceptions, I believe towards the NW, but I understood that June overall was a very disappointing month, and therefore I don't think it's correct that all three summer months are going to be above average.

I don't know if Crucible72 was referring to his/her own location, or the CET specifically, but it is true to say that for the CET zone this will be the first time all three Summer months have been above the 81-10 averages since 2003.

In fact, for June, the CET was well above average, and places 64th warmest since the record began. Most of the warmth however was concentrated in the first half of the month, so perhaps people's opinions are skewed by the second half of the month.

1st-15th: 15.6C (61-90 mean is 13.7C, 81-10 mean is 13.8C)
16th-30th: 14.9C (61-90 mean is 14.6C, 81-10 mean is 15.1C)

As you can see, the first half was well above the 81-10 average, the second half was a touch below.

BFTV's post here may be of use for visualising this (the first graph):

The nation as a whole was above average also:

 

Edited August 30, 2016 by Relativistic

[Summer Sun]

June was 0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

July was 0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[J10]

Results will be late this month and should be published on the 10th Sept.

 

[cheese]

June's perception as poor is based on the exceptional rainfall and dullness that much of England experienced. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

August looking likely to be the first above average month since January here, currently 15.7 which is 0.2c warmer than the 81-10 average.

[Summer Sun]

17.1 to the 30th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

A max of anything between 19.1 and 25.2C will give us a value of 17.1C before corrections, so that almost certain now.  All that's left then are the corrections.

[Weather Boy]

On 30 August 2016 at 20:14, cheese said:

June's perception as poor is based on the exceptional rainfall and dullness that much of England experienced. 

Ok, thanks all of you. Interesting and surprising.