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August 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

Roger J Smith
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Minimum today of 14.1C, while maxima look like hitting about 20C, so remaining on 16.8C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

16.9C to the 22nd (19.7: +3.2)
17.1C to the 23rd (20.9: +4.8)
17.3C to the 24th (22.0: +5.9) [Record High: 21.5C]
17.5C to the 25th (21.0: +5.3) [Record High: 20.9C]
17.4C to the 26th (17.0: +1.3)
17.5C to the 27th (17.9: +2.5)
17.4C to the 28th (17.0: +1.9)
17.4C to the 29th (15.0: -0.3)
17.3C to the 30th (15.7: +0.2)

A slight downgrade in the warmth, but still enough to set a few daily records. The extent of the warmth is still varying from one run to the next, so things may still change.

At this stage, a finish of about 16.7 to 18.0C is likely before corrections, and 16.3C to 18.0C after corrections.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield still on 16.3C

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted

GFS 12z looks very warm to Saturday (20 on average), near normal Sunday to Tuesday 30th (16.0) and slightly below normal for Wed 31st (14.5). If we assume that translates to 18.2 overall would suggest month ends at about 17.3 plus or minus 0.3. 

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted
14 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

GFS 12z looks very warm to Saturday (20 on average), near normal Sunday to Tuesday 30th (16.0) and slightly below normal for Wed 31st (14.5). If we assume that translates to 18.2 overall would suggest month ends at about 17.3 plus or minus 0.3. 

Yep, very much in agreement with my estimate from the 12z, 20.1C average to Saturday, then 16.4C average for the remaining 4 days, giving 17.34C overall. Today's 0z is a touch warmer too.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Minimum today is 14.1C, while maxima look like reaching the low 27s, so an increase to 17.0C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

17.2C to the 24th (20.6: +4.5) [Record High: 21.5C]
17.3C to the 25th (20.3: +4.6)
17.4C to the 26th (18.5: +2.8)
17.4C to the 27th (18.8: +3.4)
17.5C to the 28th (19.7: +4.5)
17.4C to the 29th (15.5: +0.2)
17.4C to the 30th (15.2: -0.3)
17.3C to the 31st (17.0: +1.8)

We'd require a max today of at least 30C just to equal the record high, so that appears unlikely. Several of the next few days may reach the top 5, but none look likely to break any records now.
At this stage, I'd hazard a guess of 16.9C to 17.7C before corrections, and 16.5C to 17.7C after corrections. 
 

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted (edited)

Sunny Sheffield at 16.4C just sneaking above average. Still a very dry month as well.

Edited by The PIT
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Min today of 15.0C, while maxima look like hitting the low 25s, so an increase to 17.3C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

17.3C to the 25th (20.6: +4.9) [Record High: 20.9C]
17.3C to the 26th (18.3: +2.6) 
17.3C to the 27th (17.2: +1.8)
17.3C to the 28th (15.4: +0.3)
17.3C to the 29th (17.3: +2.0)
17.2C to the 30th (16.4: +0.9)
17.2C to the 31st (17.6: +2.4)

No record yesterday, and barring maxima being way higher than expected, there'll be no record today. Tomorrow has a slight chance though.

GFS has gone a little cooler overall, finishing on 17.2C. However, at this time a range of 16.9C to 17.5C is still possible, with about 16.5C to 17.5C after corrections.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

2012 was the last time August was the warmest summer month.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Maxima yesterday was way down on what the GFS was showing. The forecast was for 30C about 5 days ago, down to low 25s the morning of and final max was just 23.9C.

Anyway, next few days look a little cooler, but the final 3 days look a little warmer, so still a finish of 17..2 or 17.3C before corrections expected.

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DAVID SNOW Veteran

DAVID SNOW

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
Posted
9 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

2012 was the last time August was the warmest summer month.

Will August 2016 make it?

Gonna be very close, either way.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Min today of  12.8C, while maxima look like getting close to 22C, so likely remaining on 17.1C, with a slight change of 17.2C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

17.2C to the 27th (17.8: +2.4)
17.2C to the 28th (19.1: +4.0)
17.2C to the 29th (17.6: +2.3)
17.3C to the 30th (17.6: +2.1)
17.3C to the 31st (18.6: +3.4)

The max yesterday was way down on predictions too, just 19.9C. The GFS has gone a bit warmer for the remainder of the month, and so 17.3C is still the predicted end.

At this stage, 17.0C to 17.6C before corrections is likely, and 16.6C to 17.6C after corrections

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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Min today of  12.8C, while maxima look like getting close to 22C, so likely remaining on 17.1C, with a slight change of 17.2C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

17.2C to the 27th (17.8: +2.4)
17.2C to the 28th (19.1: +4.0)
17.2C to the 29th (17.6: +2.3)
17.3C to the 30th (17.6: +2.1)
17.3C to the 31st (18.6: +3.4)

The max yesterday was way down on predictions too, just 19.9C. The GFS has gone a bit warmer for the remainder of the month, and so 17.3C is still the predicted end.

At this stage, 17.0C to 17.6C before corrections is likely, and 16.6C to 17.6C after corrections

Looks like, overall, a very warm second half of August. Combining the provisional data with your estimates for today and the days to come yields a second half CET (16th-31st) of 18.0C, which would place as the joint 7th warmest on record, with 1826.

Those that rank above this are:
1947: 19.4C
1955: 19.3C
1984: 18.9C
1995: 18.6C
1997: 18.3C
1976: 18.3C

Some very famous Summers there.

Edited by Relativistic
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted
8 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Looks like, overall, a very warm second half of August. Combining the provisional data with your estimates for today and the days to come yields a second half CET (16th-31st) of 18.0C, which would place as the joint 7th warmest on record, with 1826.

Those that rank above this are:
1947: 19.4C
1955: 19.3C
1984: 18.9C
1995: 18.6C
1997: 18.3C
1976: 18.3C

All very famous Summers.

Looks like it could be around the 5th warmest final 10 days too, at 18.3C.

Current top 5 being

1955: 19.3C
1984: 19.2C
1947: 18.6C
1949: 18.5C
1976: 18.2C

Downward corrections and and the GFS inaccuracy will play a role though.

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted (edited)

Mean in Leeds so far this month is 17C. Likely to just miss out on being warmer than July which had a mean of 17.2C.

Edited by cheese
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
On 8/26/2016 at 16:30, BornFromTheVoid said:

Looks like it could be around the 5th warmest final 10 days too, at 18.3C.

Current top 5 being

1955: 19.3C
1984: 19.2C
1947: 18.6C
1949: 18.5C
1976: 18.2C

Downward corrections and and the GFS inaccuracy will play a role though.

Will you all please stop mentioning 1947, you'll have the winter thread in a cold sweat!!

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

If the heat was more widespread instead of restricted to the South East, the CET will have probably risen more than it has done.

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
1 minute ago, cheese said:

If the heat was more widespread instead of restricted to the South East, the CET will have probably risen more than it has done.

CET down here probably 19C-20C

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted (edited)

 

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

CET down here probably 19C-20C

Mean at Heathrow this month is 1.4 degrees above average.

Mean at Leeming (North Yorkshire) is 0.7 degrees above average.

Mean at Shawbury (Shropshire) is 1.0C degrees above average.

It's a warmer than average month for all of England, just more so for the South East.

In terms of sunshine, Heathrow is currently at 92% of the average, Leeming at 88% of the average, Shawbury at 89% of the average.

I know I've said it a million times (apparently to no avail), but it's been a perfectly fine month here - just limited in terms of heat.

Edited by cheese
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