August 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[Summer Sun]

17.1c to the 7th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 12.6C, while maxima look like reaching the high 18s, so a drop to 16.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

16.6C to the 9th (13.8: -3.1)
16.3C to the 10th (13.6: -3.2)
16.3C to the 11th (17.0: +0.3)
16.6C to the 12th (19.1: +2.3)
16.7C to the 13th (18.3: +2.1)
16.9C to the 14th (18.8: +2.1)
17.1C to the 15th (21.0: +4.2)
17.6C to the 16th (24.8: +8.3) [Record High: 21.6C]
17.8C to the 17th (21.0: +4.5)

Some cool days in the near term before changing to warm/hot conditions around mid month. While the forecast value for the 16th isn't reliable yet, it could challenge the record for the warmest day in August, 24.9C from August 1st 1995.

[Daniel*]

On 31 July 2016 at 22:46, DAVID SNOW said:

Would not rule it out Dan for sure, maybe a 20 to 30 %  probability.

I may have latched onto something it seems.

[Summer Sun]

16.9c to the 8th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[DAVID SNOW]

23 hours ago, Daniel* said:

I may have latched onto something it seems.

There was always the chance, but the probability was never in your favour

As for this months CET, a figure > 17, is looking very unlikely, imo.

Edited August 9, 2016 by DAVID SNOW

[Summer Sun]

16.6c to the 9th

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 10.1C while maxima look like reaching the mid 18s, so a drop to 16.3C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

16.4C to the 11th (17.3: +0.6)
16.6C to the 12th (18.8: +2.0)
16.8C to the 13th (18.4: +2.2)
16.7C to the 14th (16.3: -0.4)
16.8C to the 15th (18.1: +1.3)
17.1C to the 16th (20.9: +4.4) [Record High: 21.6C]
17.2C to the 17th (18.5: +2.0)
17.1C to the 18th (16.1: -0.5)
17.1C to the 19th (16.5: -0.4)

Variable conditions coming up but generally slightly warmer than average. The chance of record breaking temperatures next week now appears reduced.

[NorthYorksWeather]

15.6c here to the 9th which is 0.4c above average, another drop looks likely after today's temps after a low of 9.1c and a high of 17c so far. 

[Daniel*]

17 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

There was always the chance, but the probability was never in your favour

As for this months CET, a figure > 17, is looking very unlikely, imo.

I suppose so that plume being modelled mid-month looks much more subdued. A fluid situation IMO.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.3C

[Summer Sun]

16.3 to the 10th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

16.3 to the 11th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 13.5C while maxima look like being in the mid 22s, so we're likely to remain on 16.3C on tomorrow's update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

16.5C to the 13th (17.3: +1.1)
16.5C to the 14th (15.6: -1.1)
16.5C to the 15th (17.0: +0.2)
16.6C to the 16th (17.4: +0.9)
16.7C to the 17th (18.7: +2.2)
16.9C to the 18th (19.8: +3.2)
17.0C to the 19th (19.7: +2.8)
17.0C to the 20th (17.9: +1.2)
17.0C to the 21st (15.5: -0.9)

Next week's heat pulse has been downgraded to a longer lasting warm spell, with no daily records under threat. A gradual rise in the CET expected over the next 7-10 days

[Summer Sun]

16.4 to the 12th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.3C surprisingly close tot he CET value.

[seaside 60]

So much for the cold spell.

NW CET back up to just under 1c above ave.

[Roger J Smith]

I would estimate 16.8 is the most likely finish from the current guidance. 

[Summer Sun]

16.5 to the 13th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[seaside 60]

21 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I would estimate 16.8 is the most likely finish from the current guidance. 

Well that would be good I thought I could well be well out this month.

Thats a brave call at mid month though.

[summer blizzard]

I'd not be shocked if we ended up below the 1981-2010 average although i think a 1C departure from average (15.4C) is off the table.

[Roger J Smith]

GFS 12z today gives me an estimate of 16.5, so a little cooler but really anything seems in play when the thermal gradient looks very tight in the last ten days of the month. A shift either way and almost any forecast is in the running. Towards the end of the run, which is less reliable, some very warm air hovers just off to the south, so given the uncertainty of any modelling at that range, we could see that warmth making at least some runs into the CET zone (more certainly the current value will go up to about 17.0-17.2 at some point later this coming week, then I am fairly confident it will slump back towards 16.5 again).

[NorthYorksWeather]

15.5c here to the 14th. 0.3c above average, next week or so looking fairly average so not likely to change much.

[Summer Sun]

16.5 to the 14th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 9.4C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 22s, so remaining on 16.5C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

16.6C to the 16th (17.7: +1.2)
16.6C to the 17th (17.9: +1.4)
16.8C to the 18th (18.9: +2.3)
16.7C to the 19th (16.4: -0.5)
16.8C to the 20th (17.2: +0.5)
16.8C to the 21st (18.4: +2.0)
16.9C to the 22nd (18.0: +1.5)
17.0C to the 23rd (18.1: +2.0)
17.1C to the 24th (19.6: +3.5)

Warmer than average conditions dominating for the next week to 10 days according to the GFS, pulling the CET up t the 81-10 average by the 20th.

[Summer Sun]

16.5 to the 15th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited August 17, 2016 by Summer Sun