August 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[Roger J Smith]

August CET averages and extremes

(all of these are mean daily values, the average of daily max and min)

24.9 ... warmest August day (1st, 1995)

19.2 ... warmest August, 1995

18.9 ... second warmest August, 1997
18.7 ... third warmest August, 1975

18.6 ... fourth warmest August, 1947

18.3 ... fifth warmest Augusts (tied 1747 and 2003)

18.2 ... seventh warmest August, 1911

18.1 ... eighth warmest August, 1955

18.0 ... ninth warmest August, 1990

16.9 ... 2013 mean

16.6 ... 2012 mean

16.4 ... average of 1981-2010 and 1986-2015

16.3 ... average of 2001-2015
16.2 ... average of 1971-2000

15.9 ... 2015 mean
15.8 ... average of 1961-1990, and 1701-1800, and 1901-2000
15.6 ... average of 1659-2015
15.4 ... average of 1801-1900
15.1 ... average of 1659-1700

14.9 ... 2014 mean
13.7 ... coldest August since 1956 (1986)
13.5 ... coldest August since 1912 (1956)
13.0 ... second coldest Augusts (tie) (1694,95)
12.9 ... coldest August, 1912

9.5 ... coldest day to 16th (16th, 1888) ... earliest sub-10 value in August

8.8 ... coldest August day (26th, 1864) ... although it was 7.1 C on 1 Sept of 1816

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Enter by the end of the day Sunday 31st July without penalty, or before end of Wednesday 3rd August with increasing time penalties.

Edited July 20, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[Relativistic]

13.7C.

[B87]

16.8c

[BARRY]

16.3c

 

[Polar Gael]

16.9C for me please.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Rest in pieces summer 2016!  21.5C    Last sub 13C August in 1912.  Last sub 14C August in 1986.  Last sub 15C and last sub 15.5C August in 2014.

Edited July 22, 2016 by Lettucing Gutted

[coldest winter]

17.1 for me please

[simshady]

16c please.

[SteveB]

17.3c please

[JeffC]

16.5 please

[Summer Sun]

17.0c for me please

[Mapantz]

16.7°C

Thank you please!

[ThundersnowDays]

15.6 please.

[iapennell]

I am going with the South and Midlands having rather more warm dry weather for much of the month than the North (where it will get progressively wetter windier and chillier as August progresses). Prevailing winds will be Westerly. I will plump for a CET of 16.8C if I may, please. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the August CET from 1659-2015 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 16.2 and 17.2C after corrections. The average August following Julys within that range is 16.0C.

The linear trend for the whole August record is +0.14C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 15.9C.
The linear trend since 1850 is +0.63C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 16.3C.
The linear trend since 1950 is +1.83C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 16.6C.
The linear trend over the last 50 years is +1.35C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 16.5C.
The linear trend over the last 30 years is +0.13C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 16.4C.

It's been 30 years since a CET below 14.5C was recorded. The longest run without such a CET occurred between 1737 and 1771,  34 years. In stark contrast, during the 32 Augusts between 1881 and 1912, 11 Augusts were below 14.5C, more than 1 in 3.

[Captain Shortwave]

16.6C for me, a generally westerly based month with the north cooler and unsettled with the south seeing some dry and warm weather at times. I suspect 30C will be reached at least once.

[Weather26]

15.2C-Another August going down the tube for me 

[Costa Del Fal]

16.5c please

[Joseph Hudson]

I am going with somewhere between 16.0 and 17.3.

[summer blizzard]

16.4C.

[CongletonHeat]

17c

[Bobd29]

17.3 for me please

[BlueHedgehog074]

A bit optimistic, but will go for 17*C please. Have a feeling that the core area of the Azores High will stay locked away to the South and West of the U.K. at times with Lows running over the top and into Mainland Europe, although I do also feel that some of the Atlantic Lows may dig far enough South to our West and force some ridging from the Azores High to get pumped North-East into the continent and perhaps allow some Spanish Plume-like instances to occur at times. However, can't really see anything super warm occurring generally and also can't really see any particularly amplified or stubborn High Pressure ridges developing to our East. (hope to be wrong, though). 

[cheese]

I see August being rather average, rounding off a thoroughly unremarkable summer. 30C will almost certainly be reached somewhere - probably around London or Cambridge, most likely in the early or middle part of the month, but 30C in late August is certainly possible as well.

16.3C.

Btw, August 2014 - what a horror show! Worst August of my lifetime.

Edited July 24, 2016 by cheese

[Methuselah]

I'll take a guess at 16.2C please...