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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

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Pinning my hopes in cirencester on this mass coming up past plymouth .... all post cold front I assume so I dont think Ill pull an all nighter! Samos

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Does look more like a wave on the cf coming up, but I thought that was due tomorrow...

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1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

The north and east anglia / links are getting their weekly supercell now by the looks of it.

for those in the sultry south - here's some lovely sheep lightning to look at:

 

 

image.png

image.png

image.png

Supercell? Weekly? HAHAHAHA! It's barely raining here, some strange flash out to the east (nothing on radar). Probably a Typhoon practising over the N Sea.....

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Mist and low cloud rolled well-inland from the North Sea in Norwich this evening, so after a max of 29C this afternoon we've been sitting at 17C with a dew point of 17C all evening, and a cloud base lit orange by the city lights at 100ft above the ground! Just seen a few flashes lightning up all this mist above our heads with a long, deep but quiet rumble.

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Does look like some small areas of heavier convective precipitation in the mass to the SW.

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Once again, masses of strikes in Bay of Biscay, i think all uk storm chasers could chip in, we buy a boat, since we've got more chance

of chasing storms over the ocean, than land

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10 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Mist and low cloud rolled well-inland from the North Sea in Norwich this evening, so after a max of 29C this afternoon we've been sitting at 17C with a dew point of 17C all evening, and a cloud base lit orange by the city lights at 100ft above the ground! Just seen a few flashes lightning up all this mist above our heads with a long, deep but quiet rumble.

Evening Dan - seems that my post in the regional thread was totally incorrect.  As you say, the low cloud fron the North Sea ledto a disappointing end to a hot and sunny day with some lovely cirrus clouds here a few miles south of yourlocation.  I must admit we missed thelocal forecast this evening - friends came over - did you do it?

 

EDIT - no sferics showing on bitzortung - atmospheric conditions not conducive?

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

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It rained moderately for 5 minutes here earlier which is the closest we've come to a thunderstorm all year.

im expecting a similar result tomorrow. Any episodes of heat have faded out with a whimper here this year, the Synoptics just haven't been conducive 

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2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Evening Dan - seems that my post in the regional thread was totally incorrect.  As yiu say, the low cloud fron the North Sea ledto a disappointing end to a hot and sunny day with some lovely cirrus clouds here a few miles south of yourlocation.  I must admit we missed thelocal forecast this evening - friends came over - did you do it?

Depends on your preference - I for one am thankful for the noticeable cool northerly breeze! :laugh:

and it's Alex today - I'm back on Friday...

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Just now, staplehurst said:

Depends on your preference - I for one am thankful for the noticeable cool northerly breeze! :laugh:

and it's Alex today - I'm back on Friday...

Was a bit too hot for me - and I don't do well in high humidity.  Is it my imagination, or are our summers more humid than they used to be when I were a lad?!:rofl:

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6 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Was a bit too hot for me - and I don't do well in high humidity.  Is it my imagination, or are our summers more humid than they used to be when I were a lad?!:rofl:

When I was a lad, I never wore long sleeve shirts and trousers in the height of summer, nor travelled on an AC-less packed out cattle wagon of a train for 90 mins a day, so it's difficult to compare...with this in mind, I do agree that it does feel summers are more humid than those of yester-year - paradoxically however storms are certainly less frequent than those good years in the 90s/early 00s.

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Latest GFS thoughts on CF development tomorrow evening

ukprec.png

West Midlands-Cheshire up into Manchester and Lancashire way

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The sky has lit up a few times now and one rumble of thunder heard here from the cell over cambridge

*Bah sorry this should have posted ages ago.

Edited by TheToastPeople

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30 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

Once again, masses of strikes in Bay of Biscay, i think all uk storm chasers could chip in, we buy a boat, since we've got more chance

of chasing storms over the ocean, than land

Brittany Ferries Pont Aven will be sailing from Santander to Plymouth as we speak. About 2 hours into the voyage, she won't be far from those storms! Every time I travel on her, I hope I'll get lucky but it hasn't happened yet :nonono:

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Latest GFS thoughts on CF development tomorrow evening

ukprec.png

West Midlands-Cheshire up into Manchester and Lancashire way

Two hi res models, the Hirlam and NetWx SR have areas of heavy rain, nothing convective showing up on them though.

viewimage.png2016-08-24 (3).png

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Two hi res models, the Hirlam and NetWx SR have areas of heavy rain, nothing convective showing up on them though.

viewimage.png2016-08-24 (3).png

Fair enough- GFS suggestive of convective element however

ukstormrisk.png

 

At the very least there will be some torrential rain knocking around I would have thought.

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12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Fair enough- GFS suggestive of convective element however

ukstormrisk.png

 

At the very least there will be some torrential rain knocking around I would have thought.

Funnily enough, EWN's take on the WRF, shows surplus ingredients to show up a 15% severe area, strong SRH, DLS and LLS, enough to put a high risk of supercells. It is an open book again though.. I looked at a few skew-t's (still learning) from what I can see, there is a cap in place for these areas, possibly eroding in the evening. it may be all in vein though.

2016-08-24 (4).png

Edited by Mapantz
fixed a few letters that were missing :o

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Forecast from the estofex team:

http://estofex.org/

Tomorrow is certainly going to be a very interesting day. *if* any cells can route themselves in the boundary layer, conditions certainly very favourable indeed.

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Disappointed, although I am not exactly surprised, how Saturday's potential is all but avoiding the UK all together now on the GFS 18z op run, with perhaps a Kent Clipper on the cards (that's if it does not shift any more East).

Just this morning it was showing a much more S to N trajectory covering much of England and Wales. No longer, unless it moves back over the next couple of days.

Tomorrow looks a Midlands North/NE event if anything does develop, so good luck to those that seem to be in the best positioning for that.

Not long now before my thunderstorm plume hunting season closes and onto the autumnal storm watching instead.

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Another non event not that I was expecting anything different. I'm so thankful for this forum as I knew  from info here that nothing would happen imby. But I'm happy for the one's who've seen something 

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GFS said no rain at 3am over my area, or across large swathes of the country for that matter

ukprec.png

 

2.30 am and there is currently a large swathe of rain across the UK (mainly W Midlands, NW England), pushing NNE.

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This lot has just rolled in, not a spark anywhere to be found @ 02:50

 

Except in the middle of the north sea!! What's all that about!!

 

Screenshot_2016-08-25-02-48-18.png

Edited by Speedway Slider
Missed off info..

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10 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

This lot has just rolled in, not a spark anywhere to be found @ 02:50

 

Except in the middle of the north sea!! What's all that about!!

 

Screenshot_2016-08-25-02-48-18.png

Aye, turned into an unexpectedly wet night across my part of the country.

The EURO4 was much too far SE with its placement 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/08/24/basis18/ukuk/prec/16082503_2418.gif

 

Edited by CreweCold

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Some forecasts lacking accuracy, placement, and quantity of the wet stuff..

Currently absolutely hammering it down in LE3 (Leicester) @ 03:19

Screenshot_2016-08-25-03-20-15.png

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Zippo in the way of storms here which was expected. Unlikely to be any today as well but some showers

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