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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

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Some nice accas in Worthing 

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3rd rumble of thunder getting closer .

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Seeing some distant cloud of to the SW. Nothing convective, but suggests that something may spark off here in the next few hours. Still feels pretty close out there...

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Just now, Speedway Slider said:

Is this heavy rain being dried out as it makes landfall??

Yes it's not hitting the ground in salisbury

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2 minutes ago, Rob Walker said:

 

Yes it's not hitting the ground in salisbury

Whereabouts are you Rob? We had a bit, 5 miles South, but it's stopped now.

Edit - TMS tells me that they're off at the Rose Bowl now.

Edited by jtay

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Can someone please enlighten me as to what missing ingredient we're short of this time? Massive area of heavy rain peters out as it hits hot unstable landmass. This simply can't be science - we have heat, instability and a trigger. Why is nothing kicking off?

 

edit: the landmass isn't unstable, the air is (I think)

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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well the first batch has fizzled into nothingness.....let's see what happens later

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Suddenly looking very thundery here with convection at elevation...gone very still and hotter than earlier. 

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We've just put a new version of the V7 radar live in Extra :D

There's a new 'Geo-Tracker' option which tracks your location on the map and keeps it centred on your location if you're on the move - perhaps out chasing!

There's also a new selection of background maps to choose from:

radar4.png radar3.png

radar2.png radar1.png

http://www.netweather.tv/radar 

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2 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Suddenly looking very thundery here with convection at elevation...gone very still and hotter than earlier. 

There is a great looking convergence on the london/se area at the moment, wonder if it will have enough to break the cap?

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Just now, Rob Walker said:

There is a great looking convergence on the london/se area at the moment, wonder if it will have enough to break the cap?

I think it just might...

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4 minutes ago, Paul said:

We've just put a new version of the V7 radar live in Extra :D

There's a new 'Geo-Tracker' option which tracks your location on the map and keeps it centred on your location if you're on the move - perhaps out chasing!

There's also a new selection of background maps to choose from:

radar4.png radar3.png

radar2.png radar1.png

http://www.netweather.tv/radar 

Yes, yes and yes! Thanks Paul! :D

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7 minutes ago, Paul said:

We've just put a new version of the V7 radar live in Extra :D

There's a new 'Geo-Tracker' option which tracks your location on the map and keeps it centred on your location if you're on the move - perhaps out chasing!

There's also a new selection of background maps to choose from:

radar4.png radar3.png

radar2.png radar1.png

http://www.netweather.tv/radar 

Great addition that, it's invaluable on Radarscope in the states.

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1 minute ago, Nick L said:

Great addition that, it's invaluable on Radarscope in the states.

Cheers yep, it's odd - we've tracked the chase team on a map for years, and have had geo-locate on the radar for years, but for whatever reason we've never put them both together until now!

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4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

I think it just might...

Be hoping! so far most areas seeing anything are getting just rain/evaporating rain; despite the conditions!
Had a couple of thunderclaps here and the rain on radar never touched the ground. Since then just very muggy but a touch cooler than the 30 degrees earlier today. 

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38 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Can someone please enlighten me as to what missing ingredient we're short of this time? Massive area of heavy rain peters out as it hits hot unstable landmass. This simply can't be science - we have heat, instability and a trigger. Why is nothing kicking off?

 

edit: the landmass isn't unstable, the air is (I think)

First, the Herstmonceux (East Sussex) 12z sounding reveals a hot and quite dry airmass across the SE today, and even adjusting for a surface temperature of 33.8C (which was the highest achieved today in the UK at Cavendish in Suffolk) still does not break the cap, even though it gives a tasty 2,200 J/kg SBCAPE. Capped in fairly substantially to surface convection today!

However, as we have seen with the medium level activity spreading up from Biscay and Brest, the 12z Camborne (Cornwall) sounding looks more unstable and also very moist in the medium levels, atop quite a warm but dry low-level airmass - so as we have seen with some subtle upper forcing, elevated convection has brought showery bursts of rain and the odd thunderstorm, but this falling through a lot of dry air so probably no more than some large convective drops that don't amount to much in the rain gauge - at least at first, until things moisten-up further through the night.

I suspect we'll see a continuation of this theme overnight until better upper forcing arrives, especially late in the night into tomorrow morning.

herstmonceux-24082016.JPG

camborne-24082016.JPG

Edited by staplehurst

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The band of showers really seems to be getting going now going from nort west France right through the heart of England  seems to be a lot more organised as well. Which should bode well for later 

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Some convection bubbling up nicely here, whether it will deliver, if not so sure....

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48 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Can someone please enlighten me as to what missing ingredient we're short of this time? Massive area of heavy rain peters out as it hits hot unstable landmass. This simply can't be science - we have heat, instability and a trigger. Why is nothing kicking off?

 

edit: the landmass isn't unstable, the air is (I think)

Possibly low humidity ??? which could rise as we move into late evening.

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