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Supacell

Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

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Slightly off topic, so an apology, and move if you see fit...

Looking through NW thunderstorm archives, any posts going back onto the 00's  seem to have dead links to photos/videos, or photos/videos no longer there....... Are these images/videos available anywhere??

SS

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1 hour ago, dave48 said:

Have to say I am surprised there isn't much interest in this too. This looks a very nice set up indeed, lots of potential from tomorrow onwards. (even a very small chance for today up in the north!)

Aha a fellow Godalmerian!

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I think we might see something here Wednesday night/Thursday, but I think the main core will be a bit further West

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Hooooorayyy! Some interesting weather at long last after what seems an eternity of non-convective dryness.

Bit further out and while not convective....I think GFS has been sniffing something not quite legal.....thankfully that (presumed) hurricane looks nothing like that as it is modelled to barrel towards our shores, but its pokey enough!

 

h500slp.png

Edited by Harry

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On 15/08/2016 at 08:15, William Grimsley said:

 

Good afternoon all fellow posters .I,m realy hoping for some action here in north Somerset late Wednesday early Thursday but currently i think anything of note will be further east than my area .perhaps this evenings charts will show a bit more hope ,and now with a bit more darker hours perhaps hopefully some of us lucky ones can get some night time storms which are more interesting ,so fingers crossed Stella on ice and lets hope the weather gods play Ball ,cheers .:yahoo:

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You don't read this much in the UK...

"Any mist soon clearing, then mainly dry with bright or sunny spells. Later scattered thunderstorms may spread northwards, but bringing little rain. Becoming hot across eastern areas. Maximum Temperature 31°C"

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4 minutes ago, Harry said:

You don't read this much in the UK...

"Any mist soon clearing, then mainly dry with bright or sunny spells. Later scattered thunderstorms may spread northwards, but bringing little rain. Becoming hot across eastern areas. Maximum Temperature 31°C"

Where's that from met office?

and is it for today or tomorrow?

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If I was to hazard a guess, am I right in thinking storm development is most likely along that surface trough feature ahead of the wiggling weather front? As the statement in the above posts suggests, also likely to be elevated where they do occur overnight?

0000hrs Thurs:

20160823.0456.PPVI89.png

 

Edited by Chris K

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1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

Where's that from met office?

and is it for today or tomorrow?

It's from the regional forecast for London and South East England on the MetOffice website, for Wednesday.

Edited by Harry

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This would be nice, even in elevated form:

2016-08-23.png

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23 minutes ago, Harry said:

It's from the regional forecast for London and South East England on the MetOffice website, for Wednesday.

Thanks.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 24 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 25 Aug 2016

ISSUED 09:34 UTC Tue 23 Aug 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

This is an advance forecast issued to highlight the potential for thunderstorms - but given the current lead time, it is likely some aspects will be changed as confidence increases towards the event.

There is good agreement amongst NWP to keep the warm, moist plume across England capped during Wednesday daytime, despite a build-up of SBCAPE in response to strong heating - particularly across E Anglia / Home Counties / SE England / CS England. Whilst currently unexpected, should the cap be eroded locally, then a strong to perhaps severe thunderstorm would be possible capable of large hail, given strong deep layer shear and high values of storm relatively helicity.

The most likely evolution, however, is an increase in elevated convection to occur as the warm plume begins to destabilise, beginning over the English Channel and environs early afternoon, with activity generally expanding in coverage and migrating NNE-wards through the evening and night hours. Initially, given hot, dry surface air, a lot of virga with not much precipitation reaching the ground is expected, but still scope for some lightning from elevated thunderstorms. A SLGT has been issued to highlight this risk, but there is still some discrepancy over the exact positioning / orientation of this zone, and the SLGT may need to be expanded/shifted NW or SE as confidence improves.

Later in the night stronger forcing arrives from the southwest, but by this stage the most favourable conditions for thunderstorms will have shifted east - and so a broad LOW threat level is issued for an uptick in precipitation coverage later in the night over the Midlands for example, but questionable as to how much lightning activity will be associated with this. It is expected a rather messy mix of frontal (dynamic) rain along the trailing cold front will develop with elements of medium-level convection either embedded within or ahead of the front, on the western edge of the warm plume.

The true extent of lightning activity (in terms of frequency and coverage) is a little unclear at this time, and at this stage does not look to be as frequent/widespread as the 19th-20th July 2016 events.  Any thunderstorm activity that does develop on Wednesday night will continue to track NNE-wards beyond this forecast period into Thursday morning.

Scattered showers and a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms will also be possible over W Scotland and western fringes of Ireland on Wednesday night.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-08-24

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Saturday which was looking good also seems to be  going to the way of recycle bin. Not expecting anything for now unless the cold front stays further west and gets stronger.

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Well this is ticking all my boxes so far.

i'll get the Stampervan ready tonight, bed set up in case it becomes a late night / early morning affair - looking like top west of the M25 by the M1 so I can go in any required direction - but this all rests on the forecasts put out by certain agencies over the next 24 hours - Estofex, Convective Weather, Nick F and Tony Gilbert are my main trusted sources.

I also find googling any specific location appended by the word "weather" is good (though not exceptionally reliable) as a way of getting a very broad timeframe for stuff to happen.

We look to be getting all the ingredients this time and for once it's gonna hopefully be (relatively) local.

Gonna love the afternoon heat and sunshine tomo too. Here's hoping we get a proper good one :-D

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What an absolutely glorious day. I could shut my eyes and almost convince myself I was on holiday.

 

Now if these storms could come to fruition, I'll be a very happy lady.

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34 minutes ago, Lauren said:

What an absolutely glorious day. I could shut my eyes and almost convince myself I was on holiday.

 

Now if these storms could come to fruition, I'll be a very happy lady.

yes, it's time for a storm.....it's been pretty horrific here this year, which is unusual....just a couple of very distant rumbles to show for this year

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1 hour ago, ajpoolshark said:

yes, it's time for a storm.....it's been pretty horrific here this year, which is unusual....just a couple of very distant rumbles to show for this year

Same here mate, we have had one storm all year!

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4 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Same here mate, we have had one storm all year!

I had a few good ens earlier in the year, so can't really complain. 

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abit off topic but i hope we all get something like this in the next few days with the charts that are showing at the moment. this was taken from christchurch harbour looking towards bournemouth this is the first time ive seen this footage and am quite shocked this was in england lol.if you like cg's then you'll love this video 

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13 minutes ago, Willsy said:

abit off topic but i hope we all get something like this in the next few days with the charts that are showing at the moment. this was taken from christchurch harbour looking towards bournemouth this is the first time ive seen this footage and am quite shocked this was in england lol.if you like cg's then you'll love this video 

It's on topic as far as I can see... a video of a thunderstorm, and a fantastic one at that. As you say it is hard to believe this was England. I've never seen CG's raining down that frequently in this country. I know that night was an impressive night though, especially across the south coast. I am thinking it is the 4th July last year as at the end of the video there are links to other videos for this date.

If I see something even close to that tomorrow night I will be forever satisfied!

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20 minutes ago, Supacell said:

It's on topic as far as I can see... a video of a thunderstorm, and a fantastic one at that. As you say it is hard to believe this was England. I've never seen CG's raining down that frequently in this country. I know that night was an impressive night though, especially across the south coast. I am thinking it is the 4th July last year as at the end of the video there are links to other videos for this date.

If I see something even close to that tomorrow night I will be forever satisfied!

Even a small thunderstorm would go down a treat here! It does look like I am on the western fringe of activity but i'm staying positive!!

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3 hours ago, Willsy said:

abit off topic but i hope we all get something like this in the next few days with the charts that are showing at the moment. this was taken from christchurch harbour looking towards bournemouth this is the first time ive seen this footage and am quite shocked this was in england lol.if you like cg's then you'll love this video 

Shocked as well, how far away were you when you shot this? Can't believe how many people are just sitting/standing around watching/filming it all.... Surely, that was damn dangerous, was it coming towards you?

That was an absolute belter.....!!!

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Morning forecast really going for storms tomorrow severe as well. We shall see will the front reinvigorate that much

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