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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

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Hmm. Does not look that inspiring this morning as I stare outside at grey skies. High res model showing showers even more isolated then yesterday.

Hoping we get some sort of another plume before Summer is out. Models have been hinting of this outcome, but a bit of an outlier for now. All depends on what happens to the trough that sits out to our West. If it eventually drops down towards Iberia, it could get interesting.

Ireland, SW Wales, parts of Cornwall and Devon seem to have the best chances for any showers that do develop later. Good luck...

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And to be fair the Met Office seems a bit more optimistic for parts of the SW, if I was to base it on precipitation forecasts...

Whether it becomes thundery will be a wait and see game.

1900hrs.jpg

2200hrs.jpg

 

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I'm wondering even how much rain we're going to get let alone if we'll get thunder. Could turn out drier than expected.

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Yeah, if the Met Office is correct, then the Isles of Scilly and Cornwall could well get thunderstorms later on. Interesting that it puts a downpour slap bang over the top of me, too. ;)

679825debfde9da8cf249ad67d0a0dfc.png

Edited by William Grimsley

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15 hours ago, Martin Auld said:

Just a quick question, is this a sun dog, mock sun, parhelion whatever you want to call it? 

IMG_1141.JPG

 Eeeeeek!!!!!!

There a  few that would say it's Planet X/Nibiru or whatever it's called!!

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Warnings issued

Issued at: 10:51 on Wed 17 Aug 2016

Valid from 07:00 on Sat 20 Aug 2016

Valid to: 21:00 on Sat 20 Aug 2016

A spell of unseasonably strong southwesterly winds, accompanied by heavy, blustery showers, is expected to develop across the south of the UK later on Friday but peaking during Saturday daytime. Additionally, the strongest winds will lead to large waves round exposed coastlines. Gusts of up to 45 mph inland, and 45 to 55 mph along exposed coastlines are expected. Please be aware that these may lead to disruption to transport, and in view of the time of the year, there is increased potential for disruption to holidaymakers and outdoor activities.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

An area of low pressure currently forming over the mid-Atlantic is expected to intensify into an unseasonably intense feature as it tracks towards the south-west of the British Isles. Strengthening winds on its southern flank are likely to move into southwestern areas on Friday, but the peak in wind strength will be across southwest England and south Wales at first on Saturday, spreading along the south coast of England through the course of the day.

Areas covered

Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire, Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan, Swansea

Herefordshire

Devon, Dorset, Somerset, Cornwall, Plymouth, Torbay, Bournemouth, Poole, Wiltshire, Isles of Scilly, Bath and North East Somerset, Bristol, Gloucestershire, North Somerset, South Gloucestershire

Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Kent, Portsmouth, Southampton, West Sussex

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1471647600&regionName=uk

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@Summer Sun, finally something eventful! RIP trees!

Just noticed a torrential downpour has erupted near Plymouth!

Edited by William Grimsley

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2 hours ago, Speedway Slider said:

 Eeeeeek!!!!!!

There a  few that would say it's Planet X/Nibiru or whatever it's called!!

lol  i actually saw that starnge sun last night aswell   i bet the conspiracy theorist were on overdrive

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12 minutes ago, Jcweather said:

Looking like all this low pressure will miss me to the South

To the south? No, that's incorrect. It'll be too the north if anything.

Anyway, more showers developing now out west.

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1 minute ago, William Grimsley said:

To the south? No, that's incorrect. It'll be too the north if anything.

Anyway, more showers developing now out west.

If it's affecting the SW and then along the South Coast towards Kent then it's to the South of me

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9 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

To the south? No, that's incorrect. It'll be too the north if anything.

Anyway, more showers developing now out west.

No, map clearly shows affected areas to be the SW and the south coast. No warnings in place for the north

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Sorry? No, it sounded like as if Jcweather was saying that the LOW was going to be to the south of the UK, but that's incorrect it's going to affect western areas of the UK.

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1 minute ago, William Grimsley said:

Sorry? No, it sounded like as if Jcweather was saying that the LOW was going to be to the south of the UK, but that's incorrect it's going to affect western areas of the UK.

No, what I meant was that the area of low pressure was going to miss where I live to the South. 

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Lightning strike detected out in the channel south of Cornwall, probably some mid level convection..... not expecting much to develop if I'm honest....the odd elevated storm maybe but generally the parameters are underwhelming......best chance in the far Southwest....I'll continue to live in eternal hope

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Clear blue here, has been most of the day.

 

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I was referring to the weather warning above for Saturday and the fact the wind was going to affect the SW and southern coasts!Meanwhile SW weather have just tweeted there may be downpours,possibly thundery affection Plymouth fireworks tonight so all isn't written off yet for you today!

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Can see the cloud beginning edge in from the southwest at the moment. Some bright radar echoes out west but that mass that went over Plymouth seemed to fizzle as it went over land.

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3 hours ago, weirpig said:

lol  i actually saw that starnge sun last night aswell   i bet the conspiracy theorist were on overdrive

So what do you think about this Nibiru/Planet X?

Is there any truth in it? Perhaps not what they are saying it is, but a rogue planetary body orbiting our Sun, but on a different plane, and not curcular orbit, perhaps an orbit that takes it way out of the usual planetary orbits, and possible close encounter with the Sun or Earth every 20,000 years or more? We wouldn't have been around for the last encounter, would we..........?

Surely would have some effect on weather, etc.......

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1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

@ajpoolshark, we have some stunning Altocumulus Castellanus clouds here! :)

It pains me to say it, but I have lots of that here too. lol

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7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It pains me to say it, but I have lots of that here too. lol

Haha, I love the stuff, not just because there's instability in the air, but I love the shape of them.

Very lightly raining here, but feeling quite humid and it's quite dull and hazy, certainly feels thundery.

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Wouldn't it be about right when I leave for Greece on the 24th it'll all go bang... Bring on the Balearics in late September :bomb:

mind you, ive got my eye on that area of forecasted low barocyclic heights at 500hpa heading down over Serbia into the Greek islands around that time. And precip charts don't look too bad. So that would be some consolation at least! 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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