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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 28 Jul 2016 - 05:59 UTC Fri 29 Jul 2016

ISSUED 16:59 UTC Wed 27 Jul 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Similar to Wednesday, a SMZ with dewpoints of 14-17C will be present across the bulk of England and Wales for a time during the afternoon/early evening hours. Given sufficient insolation can develop through otherwise initially extensive cloud, deep convection may allow a few scattered heavy showers to form, perhaps capable of producing some sporadic lightning activity. Given relatively low cloud bases, and some reasonable LLS and backing of the surface winds in advance of the cold front, there is scope for a brief funnel or even weak tornado.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-07-28

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

What is an SMZ,  I can't think what it is; I'll probably kick myself. . 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

What is an SMZ,  I can't think what it is; I'll probably kick myself. . 

Shallow Moist Zone

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Shallow Moist Zone

Ar right thanks Nick,  makes sense. :-) 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Risk of some isolated post frontal storms developing across Wales, Midlands and parts of southern and eastern England tomorrow, a fairly narrow zone of instability moving through ...

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_280716.png

Issued 2016-07-27 21:21:27

Valid: 28/07/2016 0600z to 29/07/2016 0600z

CONVECTIVE/STORM FORECAST - THURS 28TH-JULY-2016

Synopsis

Upper low persists to the north of the UK centred over the Norwegian Sea, driving a deeply cyclonic westerly flow across the UK. A shortwave trough and associated jet max, originating from far NW Atlantic/NE Canada will moves east across Nern UK on Thursday beneath the upper low to the north. A surface low will cross N. Ireland late morning, then across N England in the afternoon/early evening. Attendant warm sector will move across England and Wales late morning and afternoon, cold front clearing E England by early evening.

… WALES, MIDLANDS, S and E ENGLAND …

A shallow layer of quite moist air will persist across the above areas into the afternoon during peak heating post cold front clearance. This warmed moist surface layer combined with steepening lapse rates as shortwave trough glances as it moves across Nern UK will yield a narrow pool of around 300-700 j/kg CAPE that will follow near/ behind the cold front clearing east. This unstable zone should support the development of isolated or scattered thunderstorms for a time across the above areas.

Strong westerly jet streak aloft and veering winds as low moves through is indicated to yield 30-40 knots of Deep layer shear and 15-20 knots of low-level shear ... which is sufficient for organisation of any storms that develop. So there is a small risk of hail, strong wind gusts and torrential rain leading to flash-flooding. Low LCL/cloud base and locally enhanced low-level shear means funnel clouds or even brief/weak tornadoes can’t be ruled out too. However, with what looks like an isolated/uncertain risk of strong thunderstorms – have refrained from issuing severe probabilities.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
12 hours ago, Nick F said:

Shallow Moist Zone

Must resist.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
21 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Must resist.

When studying mesoscale meteorology in Oklahoma (the part with all the fun stuff like thunderstorms) the lecturer kept referring to updrafts as "vertically erect". Us Brits could barely stifle our laughter while the Americans didn't even bat an eyelid. Anyhow, moving on :D

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Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl

Rather reminds me of a bloke I knew who nipped out of a meeting in New York with the words "Just nipping out to bum a fag" and got a room full of disgusted looks. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

Warwick looks like it's a getting a soaking right about now

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
10 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

Warwick looks like it's a getting a soaking right about now

Indeed, and lightning has also been picked up it would seem

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Very suprised not to have a rumble from the one that's just passed over here (northampton/daventry). Was monsoon  like rain in several bursts.

Looks.like it lost its mojo just before it got here on the radar.

Edited by matty40s
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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Very heavy shower passing through here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

no thunder for me, but nice clouds and heavy rain, a few cm of water on the path. Sky is a very odd colour.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham

Pretty poor outlook in all if it's a proper storm setup you're looking for. Strong upper jet looks to blow over UK for the foreseeable with no amplified ridge to the east holding for any length of time. Cool air advection aloft with upper troughing, however, will likely bring some maritime storm risk days, so not entirely quiet on the convective front. 

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
3 hours ago, weather09 said:

Pretty poor outlook in all if it's a proper storm setup you're looking for. Strong upper jet looks to blow over UK for the foreseeable with no amplified ridge to the east holding for any length of time. Cool air advection aloft with upper troughing, however, will likely bring some maritime storm risk days, so not entirely quiet on the convective front. 

After the very thundery period of late May/early June things have definitely turned rather poor. There was that one day a couple of weeks ago with the heat and storms but following on from the most thundery June I can remember I have now just endured one of the least thundery July's I can remember. Not a single storm here all month. Maritime storm risk days are okay, they are better than nothing, but I would love another plume event.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham

Yep, can't get the proper big storms without the real heat and moisture (there are some who mistake that for getting storms at all, but obviously not saying that). Indeed, week ago Weds we saw the right kind of convective setup, which brought big storms over northern UK morning hours, followed by strong surface-based storms during afternoon period across eastern England.  Not to say you can't get potent storms under cooler setups, but they don't compare to those that develop from hot 'plumes'. 

Have to say though, despite some decent years (2013/14 spring to mind) recently, things still don't feel the same after 2006.  It's not even so much the lack of storm occurrence as it is the lack of punch the storms that do affect here have.  Storms just feel watered down.  '90s and early 00s had plenty of big storms here, so much so that I would really look forward to summer almost knowing that there was guaranteed to be a least one day in the year when I'd see a proper storm.  After the last several years, though, I don't expect to see much at all now. Granted, got a good storm on May 7th and, as you say, there was that early June period, but this summer, so far, has been a disappointment.  

Let's hope Aug and Sep come up with the goods..

Edited by weather09
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Posted
  • Location: Great Yeldham, North Essex
  • Location: Great Yeldham, North Essex

Just spotted a funnel cloud West of Haverhill. I took this photo but it really doesn't show much.

20160729_165954.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan
55 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Yep, can't get the proper big storms without the real heat and moisture (there are some who mistake that for getting storms at all, but obviously not saying that). Indeed, week ago Weds we saw the right kind of convective setup, which brought big storms over northern UK morning hours, followed by strong surface-based storms during afternoon period across eastern England.  Not to say you can't get potent storms under cooler setups, but they don't compare to those that develop from hot 'plumes'. 

Have to say though, despite some decent years (2013/14 spring to mind) recently, things still don't feel the same after 2006.  It's not even so much the lack of storm occurrence as it is the lack of punch the storms that do affect here have.  Storms just feel watered down.  '90s and early 00s had plenty of big storms here, so much so that I would really look forward to summer almost knowing that there was guaranteed to be a least one day in the year when I'd see a proper storm.  After the last several years, though, I don't expect to see much at all now. Granted, got a good storm on May 7th and, as you say, there was that early June period, but this summer, so far, has been a disappointment.  

Let's hope Aug and Sep come up with the goods..

dont get your hopes up for those months either, definatley a reduction in thunderyness over the last few years in these parts too, i still blame that pesky cold blob in the atlantic for our recent woeful summers, ever since that emerged we seem to be in perpertual autumn. expecting next summer to be just as naff

Edited by IanR
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

That rain over parts of north Yorkshire has developed quite significantly in the past 90 minutes or so

17:15

5676575.png

18:30

5675458997.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Yup and if it survives a bit longer I'll be able to wave at distant lightning strokes as they just miss me again.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
7 hours ago, fine wine said:

Just spotted a funnel cloud West of Haverhill. I took this photo but it really doesn't show much.

20160729_165954.jpg

I take it, it's under that wall cloud feature hidden by trees?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Another torrential roof-washing downpour. The first since yesterday evening.

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