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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent

So this is very strange. Netweathers 7 day forecast has significantly reduced the potential for storms for my area which is what I was looking at earlier, but convectiveweather is suggesting the possibility of overnight storms in my area and tomorrow is looking like it has more potential? I'm confused.

Today and tomorrow...

As you can see zero storm risk (was between 60 and 80% about three days ago for both days), in stark contrast to convective weather which is showing a risk of storms for my area on both days. There seems to be a massive difference of opinion on the forecast. Either that or there's a technical error?

Screenshot_2016-08-26-11-34-46.png

Screenshot_2016-08-26-11-37-12.png

Screenshot_2016-08-26-11-49-49.png

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 26 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 27 Aug 2016

ISSUED 11:24 UTC Fri 26 Aug 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 11:24 UTC SLGT re-introduced to S/SE England and LOW extended slightly far N to cater for increase elevated activity likely overnight

 

Any leftover elevated convection should soon clear the SE and E Anglia, leaving the main focus during Friday across Scotland where cooling aloft atop relatively warm SSTs and diurnally-warmed land will steepen lapse rates developing a few scattered showers, sometimes organised into bands, with a couple of weakly-electrified thunderstorms. Strengthening DLS from the south through the afternoon could allow some cells to become better organised across northern Scotland - with the potential for an upgrade to SLGT.

 

Late Friday night the attention then shifts to the English Channel and environs as warm, moist plume makes a return from France, in theory beginning to destabilise in the mid-levels as a warm front slowly lifts north. An increase in elevated convection seems likely through the early hours of Saturday morning over the highlighted LOW threat areas - still at this stage a lot of uncertainty as to how quickly this plume will destabilise, and hence how much lightning activity there will be, so we refrain from issuing a SLGT at this stage.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-08-26

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
2 hours ago, Neilsouth said:

What an incredible early hours that was in east kent,  some of the most vivid lightning I've seen for some time and completely unforcasted by the met to that extent as well!

Does anyone have the radar grabs between 2-3am? and 4-5.30am

Here's a couple or 3 for you.... The bottom one was 01:45, the others between 02:00 and 03:00 hours

Screenshot_2016-08-26-03-15-00.png

Screenshot_2016-08-26-02-10-49.png

Screenshot_2016-08-26-01-54-54.png

Screenshot_2016-08-26-01-45-55.png

Screenshot_2016-08-25-22-00-23.png

Edited by Speedway Slider
The bottom one was nearer 22:00 not 01:45, sorry....
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 hour ago, Windblade said:

So this is very strange. Netweathers 7 day forecast has significantly reduced the potential for storms for my area which is what I was looking at earlier, but convectiveweather is suggesting the possibility of overnight storms in my area and tomorrow is looking like it has more potential? I'm confused.

Today and tomorrow...

As you can see zero storm risk (was between 60 and 80% about three days ago for both days), in stark contrast to convective weather which is showing a risk of storms for my area on both days. There seems to be a massive difference of opinion on the forecast. Either that or there's a technical error?

Screenshot_2016-08-26-11-34-46.png

Screenshot_2016-08-26-11-37-12.png

Screenshot_2016-08-26-11-49-49.png

Strange  but isnt the net weather forecast taken from the Gfs.  which at the moment is at odds with most high res models?

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Strange  but isnt the net weather forecast taken from the Gfs.  which at the moment is at odds with most high res models?

Hmm, I'm not sure where they get their data tbh. I wasn't sure if they gathered it themselves or through another network? I know they do their own forecasts so I figured it was a difference of opinion which is fair enough, although it is at odds with the current outlook so not sure who's more accurate at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Just now, Windblade said:

Hmm, I'm not sure where they get their data tbh. I wasn't sure if they gathered it themselves or through another network? I know they do their own forecasts so I figured it was a difference of opinion which is fair enough, although it is at odds with the current outlook so not sure who's more accurate at the moment.

The  euro4 model now puts the main storm now in the north sea   so its anyones guess

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Any graphical forecast, such as those on the MetO and Netweather, won't have any human input. If you have a setup like the current one, fine detail will not be noted in those forecasts. As you can see, the words 'if' and 'likely' get used in convectiveweather.co.uk forecast, there's a high uncertainty and currently a low risk, no graphical forecast will be able to pick that out. The MetO warnings emphasis the uncertainty too, hence why the warning matrix is at 'very low' for the likelihood of it happening, it is an evolving and complex situation, so nothing could happen, in which case the warnings were right to be cautious, but if all hell breaks loose, then the warnings are there to be upgraded closer to the time. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but hate the cold
  • Location: Kent,Ashford

I manage to record a bit of footage of the shocking electrical storm that came over Kent in the early hours of August 26th between 1:45 am and 2:10 am 

the video starts all quiet with a few flashes but it quickly gets more intense as the video progress

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
1 hour ago, weirpig said:

The  euro4 model now puts the main storm now in the north sea   so its anyones guess

Ah, I see. Thanks to Mapantz as well, I didnt know the forecasts came straight off the data first without any human element at that stage so that explains a lot. Yes, very unpredictable at the moment. I guess the best thing to do is keep and eye on the radar and the skies and see what happens. I just hope we finally lose this unbearable heat.

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 hour ago, Windblade said:

Ah, I see. Thanks to Mapantz as well, I didnt know the forecasts came straight off the data first without any human element at that stage so that explains a lot. Yes, very unpredictable at the moment. I guess the best thing to do is keep and eye on the radar and the skies and see what happens. I just hope we finally lose this unbearable heat.

Doubt it tomorrows showers come with a warm front.

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Doubt it tomorrows showers come with a warm front.

Oh no. I was hoping for either some cooling rain, a strong breeze or just lower temps in general.

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

I really hope we get some thunder tomorrow as I don't wan't to go through this forecast thundery period without even getting one rumble of thunder!

I can't honestly tell whether it looks good for our area tomorrow for convective weather as all the forecasts are different.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

here looks wettest location, sigh, bbc and GFS, GFS a bit more friendly and gives a wet evening/night, bbc though has it during the day

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

ukcapeli.png

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I'd happily take this from the German model..

2016-08-26.png

No doubt that it will look a lot different tomorrow, though.

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Posted
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey

Looking at the various models haven't got a clue what going to happen down here as they are so varied at such short range, anybody know why there is still so much uncertainty/differences in model output?

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
35 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'd happily take this from the German model..

2016-08-26.png

No doubt that it will look a lot different tomorrow, though.

Pretty similar to the euro4

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Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

Could see the lightning over Kent last night despite being a good 50/60 miles away from it. I was hoping for a more widespread light show, hopefully we can get a few more chances in before the end of September, last year we had a decent storm in September so all hope is not lost.... yet! 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
4 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Could see the lightning over Kent last night despite being a good 50/60 miles away from it. I was hoping for a more widespread light show, hopefully we can get a few more chances in before the end of September, last year we had a decent storm in September so all hope is not lost.... yet! 

Last year we had one in October, so not giving up just yet.

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent

Once again absolutely cloudless skies in every direction with zero convection and still very hot. I cant see anything happening in the next few hours.

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
3 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Once again absolutely cloudless skies in every direction with zero convection and still very hot. I cant see anything happening in the next few hours.

Well nothing's forecast to happen until post-midnight anyway :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl

Dont know which model this forcast is concocted from but think a tropical storm is on the way according to the rain totals.... The away with the fairies model? 

image.png

Edited by WillinGlossop
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
47 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Dont know which model this forcast is concocted from but think a tropical storm is on the way according to the rain totals.... The away with the fairies model? 

image.png

The same could well be said for the forecast on my website, regarding the storm icon:

2016-08-26 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
4 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

12z on GFS actually looks perfect for my location, just a pity I have work...

Hmm in all honesty the higher res models indicate our region as more of an initiation zone, with showers developing as they head N/NE through the Midlands etc.

However, as always it comes down to what happens on the day.

 

 

Edited by Chris K
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