Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

yes i noticed that  seems to be saying glos up to brum for the lightening activity.  Is there any reason why this risk isnt being highlighted further north?

Well, the convective ingredients are substantially stronger. This is only the EWN's WRF take on it, this map takes the combined convective risks to make a probability, it's not an actual forecast. It's a very messy picture to be fair, some folks will get lucky, or be unlucky, however you look at it lol

I know that looking at precipitation charts can give a good idea sometimes, but they'll be about as useful as a fart in a wind tunnel. There looks to be some heavy showers across southern counties through tonight and it to tomorrow, some precipitation charts show zilch!

[AWD]

If you want Severe weather, head to Leicester then.

[fujita5]

23 minutes ago, Jcweather said:

As long as Clacton stays dry today, I don't really mind! 

Hi, it usually stays dry here on days with surface storms forecast in a southerly or easterly breeze.  Any storms that develop do so along the sea breeze front (if any forms) which is often about as far inland as Colchester.  I'm heading down the air show on my bike when I finish work, about 2pm.  I've seen it every year since I was about 10 but it never gets old...I'm 41 now!

[Thunderstruck]

4 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

Hi, it usually stays dry here on days with surface storms forecast in a southerly or easterly breeze.  Any storms that develop do so along the sea breeze front (if any forms) which is often about as far inland as Colchester.  I'm heading down the air show on my bike when I finish work, about 2pm.  I've seen it every year since I was about 10 but it never gets old...I'm 41 now!

I was thinking that we might be at risk of a typhoon later!

[Speedway Slider]

10 minutes ago, AWD said:

If you want Severe weather, head to Leicester then.

Leicester???

What's the crack???

 

Eeeeeeeeek! We gonna cop a load then?

 

 

[AWD]

Just now, Speedway Slider said:

Leicester???

What's the crack???

 

Eeeeeeeeek! We gonna cop a load then?

 

 

Just a fleeting observation purely based on the little red area on Mapantz grid above.  Nothing sinister to it.  

[Speedway Slider]

12 minutes ago, AWD said:

Just a fleeting observation purely based on the little red area on Mapantz grid above.  Nothing sinister to it.  

 

12 minutes ago, AWD said:

Just a fleeting observation purely based on the little red area on Mapantz grid above.  Nothing sinister to it.  

We've got low, grey, dank, sky above Leicester at the moment, must be a fair bit of moisture in the air as all the rain that fell between 03:00 and 07:00 has evaporated......

No wind/breeze whatsoever, it feels like just one of those days after a night of big thunderstorms, but we didn't cop one.

It just has that "feel",if you know what I mean?

[alexisj9]

Today here is the same as yesterday with more humidity and slightly less heat for now. Highest temp so far today 26.7, not sure whether it will climb higher or not. 

[weirpig]

Hammering it down here bouncing off the floor  no thunder though

[Arnie Pie]

13 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

 

We've got low, grey, dank, sky above Leicester at the moment, must be a fair bit of moisture in the air as all the rain that fell between 03:00 and 07:00 has evaporated......

No wind/breeze whatsoever, it feels like just one of those days after a night of big thunderstorms, but we didn't cop one.

It just has that "feel",if you know what I mean?

yep...awaiting patiently with that 'feel'   

Raining now in Birmingham with the radar showing intensifying showers coming into the area

[Guest]

Hi Everyone.

Many thanks to Nick Finnis and all the other excellent forecast and analysis of the latest weather setup here in the UK. Nick mentions the chance of brief Supercells so that sounds promising. 

Starting from Salford, I plan to chase later today by getting in position near Appleby Magma along the A444. This give options NW, SW, NE, SE depending on how things are shaping up. My big concern is that unless this cloud blanket goes, heating will be insufficient for anything to happen beyond embedded rumbles of thunder in more widespread rain bands. 

[Speedway Slider]

What set of conditions is feeding the storm that is still lightning it's way in the north sea at the moment.....?

[Supacell]

Currently 17c with a dewpoint of 16c. It is definitely humid out there but it does not feel particularly warm. I am a little concerned about the amount of cloud cover, I can't see it breaking over here. Ideally the clouds need to break to get the best outcome out of today, but even if they don't there is still the risk of some elevated thunderstorms moving SSW to NNE through this afternoon and more especially this evening. 

[Dale Hay]

21 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

What set of conditions is feeding the storm that is still lightning it's way in the north sea at the moment.....?

My guess would be the tears of everyone else itching for a storm.

 

As for here, it was nice to see a bit of rain earlier, felt a lot cooler too, but now it's feeling more muggy. NW's 7 day stuff for here no longer shows any sort of precip or storms at all for here today - even though all week it's had them listed with a 70-80% chance.

It's pretty much 100% cloud here too, so that's not really gonna help any surface heating.

Oh well, hopefully something changes as the day progresses.  

[Ben Sainsbury]

My area of interest right now... With risk transfering eastwards as we move through day and become active with lightning and more severe.

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

My area of interest right now... With risk transfering eastwards as we move through day and become active with lightning and more severe.

Latest from Ian on Tweeter is for thunderstorm clusters to reach South Coast mid evening heading NNE through East Somerset up into Midlands and NE England.

Currently referring to the developments in Biscay.

[Guest]

We're right under the heaviest echoes of the rainfall here in east Sheffield. Really coming down hard!

[Mapantz]

6 minutes ago, AWD said:

Latest from Ian on Tweeter is for thunderstorm clusters to reach South Coast mid evening heading NNE through East Somerset up into Midlands and NE England.

Currently referring to the developments in Biscay.

Yep. 
Worth watching out for red parallelograms creeping up..

[Nick F]

just looking at the 12z Herstmonceux radiosonde ascent and it looks quite unstable in the mid-levels upwards but a notable warm and dry nose (cap) at around 900mb which would likely prevent any surface based convection in the flow across the SE, unless some substantial forcing develops. PWAT of 37mm is ringing the alarm bells if storms that form do root into the boundary layer though!

Some surface convergence apparent across central S England and The West Country to Welsh Borders could trigger something, though a lot of mid-level cloud cover may inhibit the 'spark'. May have to rely on the mid-level convection pushing up from the SW for the thunder fix.

[wimblettben]

Not sure if I heard a rumble of thunder last night whilst I was outside but I dought it as I didn't see any lightning. Did see a dim flash later in the night though.

Apart from that though we didn't get anything apart from rain. Am hoping that the storms shown above from Ian will give us something this evening otherwise it will be pretty disappointing considering that that would be twice now where we were promised thunder and didn't get any.

[StormChaseUK]

Nick, it seems to be clearing up here on the Welsh borders, rain has stopped, sun trying to break through. So hopefully this could help trigger.

[AWD]

13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Yep. 
Worth watching out for red parallelograms creeping up..

Nice to see a decent cloudbreak ahead off the storms.  Should it stay like that, this would provide some surface heating through late afternoon, early evening, perhaps aiding storm development as they make landfall down your way later today.

[tomp456]

After a pathetic amount of rain this morning it is now pretty much overcast, and I am sitting in the office I can taste the water in the air. 

24.5c/77% humidity. 

Am just outside the risk zone today, but you never know. 

 

Roll on winter

[Mapantz]

Almost a 20°C dew point here, but the temp has dropped back to 21.7°C - 89% RH

[sparky1972]

just started raining here, not feeling overly warm or humid so i think anything will die off before it gets here as no energy to keep the storms going