Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[Nick L]

Can see virga from my office window from a passing shower.

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Can see virga from my office window from a passing shower.

Yep seems to be evaporating before it reaches the ground . Is it down to down drafts ?  Or simply not enough precipitation 

[Gord]

21 minutes ago, weirpig said:

The band of showers really seems to be getting going now going from nort west France right through the heart of England  seems to be a lot more organised as well. Which should bode well for later 

Do we think we can get something here? I'm not so sure to be honest. A tad too far west maybe?

[Methuselah]

I think the problem has something to do with folks' getting relative (RH) and absolute humidity (AH) confused? 32C with 35% RH, like today, is rather muggy; but 28C with 10% RH (Highlands in April 2003) is as comfortable as comfortable can be??

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=psychrometric+chart&safe=strict&rlz=1C1AVNE_enGB682GB682&espv=2&biw=1680&bih=949&tbm=isch&imgil=w_E4-qSGKpJ0HM%3A%3BB-7Lhf6BM40AZM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fweb.uconn.edu%252Fpoultry%252FNE-127%252FNewFiles%252Fpsychrometric_inset.html&source=iu&pf=m&fir=w_E4-qSGKpJ0HM%3A%2CB-7Lhf6BM40AZM%2C_&usg=__nQXe_OaYZ70XUgGSaHAQHjeTZKA%3D&ved=0ahUKEwiCk7zZxtrOAhVLJ8AKHe7KA7YQyjcIJw&ei=Cda9V8LqEMvOgAbulY-wCw#imgrc=w_E4-qSGKpJ0HM%3A

Edited August 24, 2016 by Ed Stone

[weirpig]

Just now, Gord said:

Do we think we can get something here? I'm not so sure to be honest. A tad too far west maybe?

It's touch and go gord there does seem more showers slightly more west exiting France. I'd be more happy if I was East Midlands 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Gord said:

Do we think we can get something here? I'm not so sure to be honest. A tad too far west maybe?

miles too far west! fresher air is already here, NW wind all day as well

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep seems to be evaporating before it reaches the ground . Is it down to down drafts ?  Or simply not enough precipitation 

There's simply a layer of very dry air not far above the surface, so any rain that does fall just gets evaporated. Having said that, it has just started raining here.

[Thunderstruck]

Localised shower seems to have appeared over Romford area, be intersting to see what becomes of it

[James1979]

1 minute ago, Jcweather said:

Localised shower seems to have appeared over Romford area, be intersting to see what becomes of it

Just gone through Romford this minute on the train, not a drop. Looks like yet another dry and thunderless one, it's get worse every year, here's hoping I'm proved wrong ...

[Gord]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

miles too far west! fresher air is already here, NW wind all day as well

That's why I asked. Felt lovely and fresh outside and just doesn't feel right for storm development.

I did say earlier that east of Birmingham had a greater chance...it's just that we have been lucky enough to get our own developments in the past when it's looked like we're too far west.

I take it that we're now behind the cold front so game over? Or is it more complicated than that?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

well we are behind the cold front, unless the cold front moves west, but not expected to

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Gord said:

That's why I asked. Felt lovely and fresh outside and just doesn't feel right for storm development.

I did say earlier that east of Birmingham had a greater chance...it's just that we have been lucky enough to get our own developments in the past when it's looked like we're too far west.

I take it that we're now behind the cold front so game over? Or is it more complicated than that?

Looks to me as though the CF is set to develop a wave, which brings the risk of storm activity further N&W through tomorrow. This can be seen on the GFS 12z

[The PIT]

Just had a light shower here funny the earlier forecast going on about storms with my bolteks and netweather radar showing no activity. Just one isolated flash now showing.

[matty40s]

It was gloriously hot and sunny in Northamptonshire until 4.30 and then the cloud/haze rushed over. It is now hotter 29deg c and the humidity is stifling.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Strange feeling evening. Some thunder to my west over southampton way but I can't hear it from where I am. Fantastic looking skies with all sorts of pre-storm formations set against a lovely Aqua-blue evening sky. It may as well have a sign on it saying "storms here soon - we're working on it - hang tight for a bit - thanks!"

[Thunderstruck]

I honestly don't know whether to expect anything or not. The breeze from earlier now seems to have gone...

[Chris.R]

15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks to me as though the CF is set to develop a wave, which brings the risk of storm activity further N&W through tomorrow. This can be seen on the GFS 12z

 Thanks CC  I was wondering this myself, explained it well,  I thought it might be something like that.  I was surprised that the MO  mentions thunder a lot on the  regional text forecast. 

Edited August 24, 2016 by Chris.R

[A.J]

well, what a difference in 6 hours in the land of model watching....I've gone from 29C tomorrow afternoon to 19C under heavy cloud with general moderate rain for central southern england/west country.......to say it's an underwhelming NMM run is certainly not an exaggeration for areas that looked very good on today's earlier runs....let's hope it's utterly wrong

[West Sussex Kate]

Very stormy here, it's sooooo warm!

[TropicThunder]

Wahey thunder and lightning, finally.

[Chris K]

7 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

well, what a difference in 6 hours in the land of model watching....I've gone from 29C tomorrow afternoon to 19C under heavy cloud with general moderate rain for central southern england/west country.......to say it's an underwhelming NMM run is certainly not an exaggeration for areas that looked very good on today's earlier runs....let's hope it's utterly wrong

Best potential seems to either be to the North or East of our region as well...and Saturday is heading the same way...again Just going to wait and see now.

Edited August 24, 2016 by Chris K

[TheToastPeople]

Now this feels oppressive! Just like evenings ive experienced in south africa right before a big storm moved in... lets cross those fingers everyone!!

[Nick L]

I think anyone expecting big storms is going to be disappointed.

[Dami]

gone quite dark here now, strange greeny yellow light and a few drops of rain.

[The PIT]

More activity now on the radar.