Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[NO LONGER POSTING]

15 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

What will actually need to happen to break/breach the cap (locally)?

Thanks.... in advance peeps.

Correct me if I am wrong on this people.

The reason the cap isn't breaking currently is because the lid is firmly tight. There is very dry air up in the atmosphere at the moment and thus no moisture to produce "clouds" 

However, as we move on later in the evening the front pushing north north East introduces a trigger and moisture.

However, if there is zero fuel or lacking then it will simply be a cloudy and light rain affair. 

[TheToastPeople]

1 hour ago, Dami said:

Afternoon toast, hope you are well  Nope can't get into sat24 either. 

Not expecting anything, but hubs is cooking chicken strips and quick french fries for lunch. Just need a glass of something to make it pub lunchy. Beautiful day if i may say so and no i'm not checking every five minutes to see if anything is building. Getting a light breeze now too. yummy.

Good afternoon Dami! Im all well thanks you! Hows you been? Thats odd it seems to be working for me? though i mostly use there android app now. Storms seem to be making great progress through bay of biscay and into france, looks like they could make it into the channel in the next couple of hours.... Though we have seen them side step past us at this point before but lets just keep our fingers crossed for now eh!

[Supacell]

It was supposed to be a cloudier day here today with that weather front overhead but it is a blue sky sunshine day with temperatures of 24c currently, warmer than the predicted 21c.

[Super_Uwe]

The clouds this morning down in South Devon have been lovely, now it's clouded right over. Feels really warm and humid out.

Just have a feeling there might be some nice storms later on  Maybe not specifically down this part of the world, but it just feels right today. No science behind that prediction mind!

[Willsy]

2 hours ago, Luke Best said:

Wow that's insane in half an hour

[Rob Walker]

4 minutes ago, Supacell said:

It was supposed to be a cloudier day here today with that weather front overhead but it is a blue sky sunshine day with temperatures of 24c currently, warmer than the predicted 21c.

Yes also seeing this here in down central south in salisbury predicted 25/26 and cloudier by midday onwards but hardly seen a cloud yet (apart from a few tiny wispy ones!), very little wind, and my garden thermometer (in by far the coolest/shadiest / most exposed part of my garden) is already just nudging above 30 degrees c!    Salisbury wasn't set to be in the hottest air today but It certainly feels like it's holding on still it's sweltering outside! easily feels as hot now as yesterday (predicted to feel just "warm" for my area today and not as hot as yesterday)

So, while I don't often fiollow events as so many non starts in uk; I actually will be keeping an eye on the next few days, what with that precip/thundery rain heading up from bay of biscay in this direction currently

Either way will be interesting to see what happens; can't imagine with all this heat here that something won't develop in or around the incoming thundery rain! 

 

[A.J]

strikes now being detected moving NNE off the NW French coast into the southern English Channel associated with a big mass of convective rain tracking NNE out of Biscay.....anyone from east Devon to IOW should keep an eye on the sky in a few hours time as the plume is starting to destabilise 

[Vestan]

Some very intense rain over Brittany, with some strikes on the leading edge. Is this what is coming our way or will the rain intensity die off?

[MattTarrant]

11 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

strikes now being detected moving NNE off the NW French coast into the southern English Channel associated with a big mass of convective rain tracking NNE out of Biscay.....anyone from east Devon to IOW should keep an eye on the sky in a few hours time as the plume is starting to destabilise 

I am keeping an eye on the sky haha, though I would never judge what is going to happen with the weather on the BBC precipitation graphics, on there latest video the precipitation has pushed further west and is likely to affect most of Devon. Here's hoping!!

[Thunderstruck]

That cell around NW France looks interesting, if it doesn't die out, the South Coast will see something today I reckon

Edit: If it carries on its current trajectory, it should make landfall around the Weymouth area

Edited August 24, 2016 by Jcweather

[philglossop]

It's gone very muggy here as well after a lovely morning. Shame I took half day for this murk 

 

[TropicThunder]

Oppressively hot and humid here, certainly feels ripe for a storm.

[weirpig]

Starting to pep up now in the bay of Biscay few hours should be hitting landfall

[MP-R]

Plenty of altocumulus williamgrimsleyus appearing within a slowly increasing coverage of high cloud from the southwest. All the signs are there for something later/early tomorrow, just depends if we're on the western edge or in the firing line.

[legritter]

13 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Plenty of altocumulus williamgrimsleyus appearing within a slowly increasing coverage of high cloud from the southwest. All the signs are there for something later/early tomorrow, just depends if we're on the western edge or in the firing line.

Afternoon all ,i,m keeping an eye on developements now down to our s west ,last bbc update was a bit of an upgrade for my area ,hope plenty of us see a good display overnight .

bring it on weather gods ,crikey i,m painting today think i will give up and leave it till cooler [no rush as its the sheds ]cheers gang .

[Thunderstruck]

The cell just to the West of Guernsey appears to be almost stationary, but a second storm seems to have developed just to the North of the island. Definitely livening up out in the Channel

[Speedway Slider]

How far in old money from Cherbourg Octevan to the nearest bit of UK coast peeps?

[Speedway Slider]

That large area of Orange yellow purple rain heading our way has the heaviest (pinks/purples) actually not moving into the channel, it stalls on the coast as the other colours edge ever close to the UK.....

[Thunderstruck]

Make that 3!! Another cell to the North of Jersey!

[A.J]

26.8C here with 17C dewpoints....certainly 'juicy' out there with increasing mid-level cloud spilling up from the south

[AWD]

On 19/07/2016 at 18:25, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

 

Ignore

[Mapantz]

On my way to Corfe  Castle at the moment. I see I have nudged 30°C back home.

Is this a Grimsley special?

[AWD]

High cloud spilling here now.  In comparison to this morning, it feels fresher and more comfortable out now.  Still warm, but not the oppressive feeling of this morning.

Think the upper wind trajectory will steer any convective activity away to my east but we will see.

[Speedway Slider]

Does anyone think the Met Office are under egging the potential today?

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just now, AWD said:

High cloud spilling here now.  In comparison to this morning, it feels fresher and more comfortable out now.  Still warm, but not the oppressive feeling of this morning.

Think the upper wind trajectory will steer any convective activity away to my east but we will see.

I can certainly confirm your observations , I just reckon we'll see some weaker convective rain this evening, hopefully we'll see things pep up tonight.