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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Not to excite but some decent ML Cape around, 40kts of DLS and 350m^2s^2, I'm seeing a potential for organised and potential elevated supercells? Especially Multi-cells!

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Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms or snow
  • Location: Portsmouth
1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Not to excite but some decent ML Cape around, 40kts of DLS and 350m^2s^2, I'm seeing a potential for organised and potential elevated supercells? Especially Multi-cells!

hi back from holiday hopefuly might see some storms tonight but knowing my luck probably nothing   

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Too far away to get excited. Expect it to be a none starter for us as with all the other forecast storm activity earlier on this year. Just always in the wrong place.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL

Wednesday day time looks fine, its into the evening and through the night and especially Thursday where it may go bang!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

The second pulse on Saturday looks the best bet for me but that's too far away.

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Why is it storms from plumes these past couple of years always seem to be modelled to arrive much later in the night for the South then go kaboom further North the next day...

Bring back the days of storms moving up late evening from the S coast...not at 3am...

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey

Can't recall a plume with 850 temps this high not providing some solid storms. GFS goes for 20 degrees at 850 hpa which is quite a high figure in the SE. A reasonable chance for many later in the week.

These things are always very hit and miss but I would be surprised if this didn't deliver. Hopefully quite widespread.

Edited by dave48
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 23 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 24 Aug 2016

ISSUED 13:13 UTC Mon 22 Aug 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

As the approaching Atlantic upper trough engages with the trailing cold front and western edge of the plume of warm, moist air across the bulk of England and Wales, then there is scope for a reinvigoration of precipitation across portions of S/SE Scotland and perhaps Cumbria-NE England on Tuesday evening and night, running NE-wards with time. Instability is not overly-impressive and so the true extent/frequency of any lightning from this (primarily elevated) convection is unclear, and confidence not high enough for a SLGT to be issued at this time. Main concern would be the risk of locally high rainfall totals given PWAT 32-36mm.

GFS has been consistently keen to develop deep convection and isolated to well-scattered showers/thunderstorms over high ground of N Wales and N England late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. This particular model has a known bias to develop showers/thunderstorms in a warm, moist southwesterly flow with elements of orographic forcing - and has a history of doing so in similar situations in the past. In reality a field of convective cloud often develops but fails to build into anything more significant, and so for now have ignored this potential.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-08-23

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 3 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 24 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 25 Aug 2016

ISSUED 14:16 UTC Mon 22 Aug 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

This is an advance forecast issued to highlight the potential for thunderstorms - but given the current lead time, it is likely some aspects will be changed as confidence increases towards the event.

There is good agreement amongst NWP to keep the warm, moist plume across England capped during Wednesday daytime, despite a build-up of SBCAPE in response to strong heating - particularly across E Anglia / Home Counties / SE England / CS England. Whilst currently unexpected, should the cap be eroded locally, then a strong to perhaps severe thunderstorm would be possible capable of large hail, given strong deep layer shear and high values of storm relatively helicity.

The most likely evolution, however, is an increase in elevated convection to occur as the warm plume begins to destabilise during the evening and night hours, beginning over the English Channel and environs late afternoon, with activity generally expanding in coverage and migrating NNE-wards through the night hours. Based on latest guidance, this would generally avoid SE England and much of E Anglia (but subject to change) - the most likely areas to be affected have been highlighted with a LOW threat level at this time.

The best instability will be typically found towards the east, and it is likely an upgrade to at least SLGT will be required nearer the time. It is expected a rather messy mix of frontal (dynamic) rain along the trailing cold front will develop with elements of medium-level convection either embedded within or ahead of the front, on the western edge of the warm plume.

The true extent of lightning activity (in terms of frequency and coverage) is a little unclear at this time, and at this stage does not look to be as frequent/widespread as the 19th-20th July 2016 events.  Any thunderstorm activity that does develop on Wednesday will continue to track NNE-wards beyond this forecast period into Thursday morning.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-08-24

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
4 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Seems about right! The SE has to endure the worst of the temperatures, and with no reward....

It's fine by me.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
9 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Good for you a9, but I think the vast majority would disagree :D

Agreed Dave...Why should we have to soak up all that heat and get no thunderstorms as a reward? It's nae fair, I tell ye. It's nae fair!:rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
28 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Agreed Dave...Why should we have to soak up all that heat and get no thunderstorms as a reward? It's nae fair, I tell ye. It's nae fair!:rofl:

:D

This week on the central line will be fun! Temps 100f + ........... give me a storm as compensation :D They only transport people in such conditions.......

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Occasionally, in setups like the forthcoming one, i'll have a look at the tropospheric ducting charts. They show potential inversions that can cause TV signals to go pear shaped due to interference, especially freeview. It is currently showing moderate to strong across parts of the South, and sure enough, the freeview signal is playing up on most of the channels. It also seems to link nicely with capping, and Wednesday is showing moderate to strong ducting. It'll be interesting to see how this all pans out!

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
3 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

:D

This week on the central line will be fun! Temps 100f + ........... give me a storm as compensation :D They only transport people in such conditions.......

I hate the tube in summer used to use it all the time to get to school and work.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)

A "Plume" event, and little interest on here at the moment?

Looks like the Midlands to get the fireworks, Leicesters Lightning shield being switched on as I type, it needs a warm up as nothing of any significance has really tested it this yr....

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
27 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

A "Plume" event, and little interest on here at the moment?

Looks like the Midlands to get the fireworks, Leicesters Lightning shield being switched on as I type, it needs a warm up as nothing of any significance has really tested it this yr....

yep as it stands the euro 4  morning run  places the greatest risk over the midlands on Thursday  with the heavist of the precipitation from shropshire across to the east midlands   might be quite a show for a few folk

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey

Have to say I am surprised there isn't much interest in this too. This looks a very nice set up indeed, lots of potential from tomorrow onwards. (even a very small chance for today up in the north!)

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

From an IMBY point of view, my interest currently lies on the weekend, as any potential mid-week seems to be too far East/NE now, as expected with the slight shifts East of the surface front features over the past several model runs.

As others have stated, parts of the Midlands NE'wards may be in for some fun over the coming couple of days. Awaiting further outputs and forecasts with interest.

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

To many let downs for my area to even raise an eyebrow of interest, if it happens great, but if not......... hey-ho

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Cape values further west again for thursday!dont think we gona nail down these potential thunderstorms till the last minute!!at the moment i would say midlands east anglia look good!

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