Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[Windblade]

Spent some time away from the forums these past few weeks, simply because there wasn't much going on. This has got to be one of the worst summers for storms I can ever remember. Over the past month we've had hot, absolutely cloudless skies for the vast majority of the time, yet absolutely nothing remotely stormy came from all the heat. Today we have light rain which makes a change, but I cant see anything remotely stormy coming up anytime soon. On a positive note its nice to see William back. Hope everyone is doing well.

Edited August 19, 2016 by Windblade

[Nick F]

Have issued a storm forecast for Saturday, plenty of showers and the odd storm in the strong flow rotating around the unseasonably deep low crossing northern Britain tomorrow, can't rule out a storm almost anywhere, but central and northern areas most at risk where greatest forcing will be near the low:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[Stuart]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 19 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 20 Aug 2016

ISSUED 20:49 UTC Thu 18 Aug 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge initially across the British Isles will shift eastwards as a notable upper trough approaches from the southwest, associated with an unseasonably deep area of low pressure. The greatest potential for lightning will likely be in the post-frontal environment, especially through Friday night over the Celtic / Irish Seas and neighbouring coastal counties, as cold mid-levels round the base of the upper trough atop relatively warm SSTs. Given marginal instability, the true spatial extent of lightning is probably not high enough to warrant an upgrade to SLGT at this time. The strongest cells may produce gusty winds and some small hail.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-08-19

[Azazel]

broad and messy picture today really and almost anywhere could get the odd rumble,

 

my eye is drawn to the red circle this afternoon.

 

 

[NUT]

Hopefully this thread will be busy next week with the possible heat and humidity building. Sparks have to fire off surely....................

[Dangerous55019]

No doubt many will have seen the varying excitement over in the MOD thread about the potential Spanish Plume next week.
So just to add to all of the froth and wibble that will no doubt come from such a juicy looking Plume, I've just cherry picked these most juicy looking charts 

And before anyone says anything, yes I am fully aware that most of these charts are over a week away, so therefore the chances of them verifying are almost second to none, but hey, its nice for us storm lovers to have a bit of eye candy after what seems like an eternity 

And always remember, it was about twelve months ago that we a very short lived, one day Spanish Plume (I think it was on Saturday in August ) that gave us (well me anyway) a very impressive and thundery evening... So could history be about to repeat itself? or Am I just hopecasting? ... Probably the later. Lol 

[Stuart]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 20 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 21 Aug 2016

ISSUED 19:05 UTC Fri 19 Aug 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

We are starting to the see the transition now from land to sea-generated convection as we head towards the autumn months. Broad upper low will sit over the British Isles on Saturday, with an associated surface low drifting from Northern Ireland to the Scottish Borders / North Sea by the end of this forecast period. Cool mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs and increasing land surface temperatures during the diurnal cycle will create an unstable environment, with numerous showers developing and rotating around the main parent low.

 

This then gives a rather broad area at risk of lightning (hence the large LOW threat level), albeit each individual shower has a relatively low chance of producing lightning, and hence makes it rather difficult to highlight specific areas to upgrade to SLGT. One main inhibiting factor may be excessive amounts of cloud reducing the amount of insolation in places, especially associated with wrap-around occlusions. Nonetheless, some lightning is expected, and we have included a SLGT where forcing might be better during the afternoon/evening hours.

 

The most intense showers will be capable of producing gusty winds, perhaps a brief funnel, and also small hail

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-08-20

[Chris.R]

 Looks interesting for me here on the west coast tonight now that the sea is at its warmest. 

[Polar Maritime]

The sky is black to my West with moderate/heavy rain. 

Very heavy rain now 

Edited August 19, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[carl1980]

Just about see the storm around Blackpool 

[Chris.R]

Things developing a little earlier than I was expecting. I'll stay up for a while tonight to see what happens. It's a warm night tonight  so I might sit in the garden. 

[Eye to the sky]

Intense rain here for the last 15 mins but nothing electrical!!.

[Stuart]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 20 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 21 Aug 2016

ISSUED 05:41 UTC Sat 20 Aug 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

We are starting to the see the transition now from land to sea-generated convection as we head towards the autumn months. Broad upper low will sit over the British Isles on Saturday, with an associated surface low drifting from Northern Ireland to the Scottish Borders / North Sea by the end of this forecast period. Cool mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs and increasing land surface temperatures during the diurnal cycle will create an unstable environment, with numerous showers developing and rotating around the main parent low.

 

This then gives a rather broad area at risk of lightning (hence the large LOW threat level), albeit each individual shower has a relatively low chance of producing lightning, and hence makes it rather difficult to highlight specific areas to upgrade to SLGT. One main inhibiting factor may be excessive amounts of cloud reducing the amount of insolation in places, especially associated with wrap-around occlusions. Nonetheless, some lightning is expected, and we have included a SLGT where forcing might be better during the afternoon/evening hours.

 

The most intense showers will be capable of producing gusty winds, perhaps a brief funnel, and also small hail.

 

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-08-20

 

[stevofunnelcl]

http://www.eyeballhq.tv/surfcheck/fistralnorth/

High spring tides combined with low pressure

Oh lovely, i want to be sitting at those tables now, getting stuck into a Cornish Pasty

[Frosty hollows]

Rainfall in the Aldershot area looks insane on the radar!

[Chris.R]

 I'm rather disappointed. Not many  showers  at all, and only after 5 AM.  I thought it was supposed to be windy, it's not windy at all here. Probably too much  westerly component in the flow  today  to get any showers off  The land, so it's a lose lose situation. Oh well, let's see what happens next week. 

[Frosty hollows]

\There looks like a big bank of rain is heading your way 

[Chris.R]

 As I suspected, it's dry, warm, and sunny. 20.1°C 

[Speedway Slider]

Is this a real strike..... North West of Plymouth??

[Convective]

Yet another plume down the pan... Third plume, in the last month, to look incredible at five days notice, then to be downgraded to nothing but mild drab at three days notice..... Infuriatingly boring weather 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 hours ago, Convective said:

Yet another plume down the pan... Third plume, in the last month, to look incredible at five days notice, then to be downgraded to nothing but mild drab at three days notice..... Infuriatingly boring weather 

Still potential for the south though

[Mapantz]

Midweek/Thursday is starting to catch my eye!
NetWx MR is starting to look a little bit interesting..

[Speedway Slider]

Yea, some warm humid air coming out of France? 32c to 34c there, might get southern/central UK up to around 29c to 30c Tuesday/Wednesday... 

Might trigger some electrical activity...

[Speedway Slider]

Well, thought i'd have a quick look before bed, see if any excitement over the hot weather on its way from France, and not another soul on here, just me, so night night all...

[Sparkiee storm]

Not getting any hopes up yet, but am feeling a little bit more optimistic for this plume.