Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[William Grimsley]

Met Office and GFS still agreeing on a thundery breakdown later on Wednesday.

[legritter]

Afternoon all ,i,v been lurking ,family ties with older relatives keeping me busy but great that i can still come on Net weather and enjoy some weather talk from time to time .

I ,m realy looking forward to this week ahead ,we do have some potential synoptic conditions for some  thundery action and looking at current charts it looks like a slow moving front later tuesday could deliver .

for my neck of the woods [somerset ] i,m hoping for an over nighter ,but best of luck for all .

too early yet for specifics but i think by later tomorrow we should start to see much more detail .i,v memories of being a young boy [absolutely scared of night time storms but still managed to look out the window ]watching the street light getting hit then catching fire ,soot coming down the chimney etc .

Right then Gang ,sausage Baps all round bring it on cheers .

[William Grimsley]

@legritter, slightly off topic, but there's something wrong with your keyboard.

Edited August 15, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Chris K]

Well yet again it looks like any of the surface features and weather front has been delayed slightly in crossing into the UK. Looking at the latest fax charts, the surface trough and front looks to cross SW England, Wales and Ireland late Weds evening into Thursday morning, starting to stall/pivot as it eventually weakens.

I am not sure just how thundery any rain associated with this will be, as surface based CAPE is minimal. I do not have access to MLCAPE which is probably more important at this time, as well as other factors such as wind shear. Either way, rain could be quite heavy in places and this is now starting to tie up with the GFS operational output in terms of timings.

During this, any 'heat' begins to drain away (although that has been persistently reduced compared to the low 30's modelled last week anyway...). A spell of unsettled weather seems to be firming up and there is potential for classic thundery showers developing across many areas, as LP traverses the country and daytime surface convection kicks in where the sun makes an appearance.

 

Edited August 15, 2016 by Chris K

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

So - in a nutshell - no storms any more for the UK this week?

Disappointing watching the potential fizzle out over the last 5 days. Looked so promising initially.

I hear we might have 'thundery rain' but not interested in that at this time of year - it's all-or-nothing for me when it comes to the summer months!

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

So - in a nutshell - no storms any more for the UK this week?

Disappointing watching the potential fizzle out over the last 5 days. Looked so promising initially.

I hear we might have 'thundery rain' but not interested in that at this time of year - it's all-or-nothing for me when it comes to the summer months!

Fax charts look quite interesting to me for chances of thundery activity with some potential there. Have been surprised quite a few times in years gone by with less promising synoptics. I'll be watching with interest.

[Azazel]

Do we have any idea IF anything comes off, will it likely be tomorrow or wednesday night?

 

i've gotten so desperate this year i will scive the next day and work from home.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Never known such a thunderless July and August so far. Only on the 20th July we had that one half hearted plume. Looked so promising in June too. It was since that spotless sun definitely that I noticed the Iberian low staying put and the cool Atlantic dominating as usual. 

I actually do think there may well be some correlation with sunspot activity and thunderstorms. When activity was sky high in the 90's, there was no shortage of thunder that's for sure. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, Azazel said:

Do we have any idea IF anything comes off, will it likely be tomorrow or wednesday night?

 

i've gotten so desperate this year i will scive the next day and work from home.

Good plan - at least then either way you get a day off work!

[Chris K]

Netwx-MR model continues the slight SW push of the point precipitation stalls as it crosses Ireland and pivots SE before weakening late Weds evening into early hours of Thursday. The below image is pretty much the Eastern extent before it is dragged into France.

Latest Fax chart for the same time. Close if not in agreement.

If it verifies similar to this (and if there are indeed thunderstorms that initiate) it pretty much minimises chances for most of Wales/Midlands/W Country/CS England, whereas before they were also in the firing line.

Rapidly losing my interest, but will await other model runs in the coming day or two 

Edited August 15, 2016 by Chris K

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 16 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 17 Aug 2016

ISSUED 17:18 UTC Mon 15 Aug 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper high cell will drift from the British Isles towards the Norwegian Sea on Tuesday, allowing advection of warmer air / higher low-level WBPT plume on the southwestern flank of the high (as the flow backs) into parts of Ireland and extreme SW England. This, combined with the approaching Atlantic upper trough, will provide some scope for elevated convection to occur either within or ahead of the advancing Atlantic frontal boundary.

Instability is rather limited, and hence the coverage of lightning is unlikely to be too widespread - so we remain with a LOW threat level for now. If any surface-based convection can develop, particularly across W Ireland on Tuesday evening, it may benefit from 30-40kts to DLS to become organised for a time.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-08-16

[Mapantz]

Here's a map from the Points West forecast, nothing set in stone is the order of the day.

[William Grimsley]

Still think we'll get some thundery rain and/or thunderstorms through tomorrow night into Thursday as the warm front moves in from the SW. Can already see instability building west of the Isles of Scilly.

Edited August 16, 2016 by William Grimsley

[William Grimsley]

I have just read Matt Hugo's forecast for today and it says this: "However, parts of Ireland, Wales and SW England will see an increasing risk of some locally heavy and perhaps thundery showers later today and overnight into Wednesday", I can't see that anywhere else?

Altocumulus Castellanus cloud visible on this webcam: 

But, yeah if I'm being perfectly honest, most thunder risk will be the further west you are not east like some posters have said, most of the instability is tied up at mid level within the front not at surface based ahead of the front.

Edited August 16, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Chris K]

Following the charts over the last few days has only increased my scepticism on whether there will be many storms, but we will see. Shame after this, it looks like we go back to another boring period of general unsettled rain/wind/showers. (Although I do still have an interest in big Autumn storms when that 'season' gets going)

The best I can currently see for tomorrow night is a line of heavy precipitation stalling through Ireland, Cornwall & Devon and SW tip of Wales, who may have some interest to look forward to if the right conditions are in place. This weakens through the night. Pretty much as you were from yesterdays charts.

NetWx-SR now coming in range - this is 0000hrs, rain band is lingering there from late evening until about 0300.

Edited August 16, 2016 by Chris K

[Speedway Slider]

Yes, well, been off the forum since last week, been getting to excited/worried about thundery activity again coming my way, so decided not to worry myself endlessly over what might or might not be Thunderstorm wise..

The plume from Spain is now a bit of a non event thanks to subtle changes and a shower or two that may or may not be thundery is about my expected barrowload!!

I see Sunspot activity has again been mentioned alongside thunderstorms.... What's the general consensus over their effect on the Worlds weather?

[William Grimsley]

Very unstable looking skies in the Isles of Scilly! There are developing elevated showers which may turn to thunderstorms through this evening!

Edited August 16, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Martin Auld]

Just a quick question, is this a sun dog, mock sun, parhelion whatever you want to call it? 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 17 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 18 Aug 2016

ISSUED 13:27 UTC Tue 16 Aug 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Plume of high low-level WBPT will gradually nudge northeastwards with time through Wednesday, from Ireland into Wales/SW England while being stretched to the SE (towards France) overnight as upper heights rise. The proximity to the forward side of the Atlantic frontal boundary and upper forcing may allow elements of medium-level instability to be released in a rather sporadic nature, with scope for pockets of embedded lightning possible. This potential is perhaps greatest late afternoon into the evening over the Celtic Sea / SW England / SW Wales / W Channel, but gradually decreases and exits into northern France during Wednesday night.

Given marginal instability and current uncertainties, it is likely any lightning activity (if any) may not be that widespread, and hence the chance in any one location is considered too low to warrant a SLGT for now.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-08-17

[Raidan]

I know you cant always belive what you read in the papers and nothing at all when it comes to the Express when they have weather stories but anyway read two papers while sat in the pub garden enjoying the glorious sunshine one said according to forecasters they werent specific on who they were but the area of warm/hot air coming up from the continent know as a Spanish Plume expected this week is no longer on the cards as a change in wind direction will push plume away from the uk so already im thinking well there goes the thunderstorm potential then, the other practically said the same thing, i know its just what ive read but im siding with them and from a IMBY opinion dont expect to see a thunderstorm this week if we do get some rain it will just be normal boring rain and will be a total snore fest,

A thunderless summer here will go on and probably for the rest of the year.

I really hope there wrong and it goes bang here this week but im not holding my breath.

[Thunderstruck]

What are the chances of seeing anything here in Essex over the next few days?

[stevofunnelcl]

here we are, in the dead of night, a little surprise strike over Dartmoor

then i checked the radar, and there are some returns down there, one little isolated shower

[William Grimsley]

5 hours ago, stevofunnelcl said:

here we are, in the dead of night, a little surprise strike over Dartmoor

then i checked the radar, and there are some returns down there, one little isolated shower

Sorry, but where were you seeing this? There wasn't a detected lightning strike or shower?

[Super_Uwe]

5 hours ago, stevofunnelcl said:

here we are, in the dead of night, a little surprise strike over Dartmoor

then i checked the radar, and there are some returns down there, one little isolated shower

Yeah, a little rogue one! Is there on the historical Blitzortung map for the UK from a few hours ago.

As for the next few days, hopefully some more activity before Friday and after Sunday as going camping in Wales in between!

[William Grimsley]

25 minutes ago, Super_Uwe said:

Yeah, a little rogue one! Is there on the historical Blitzortung map for the UK from a few hours ago.

As for the next few days, hopefully some more activity before Friday and after Sunday as going camping in Wales in between!

Really? Well, unfortunately there wouldn't have been a lightning strike anyway, there was no precipitation in the area.