Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[fine wine]

16 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

I take it, it's under that wall cloud feature hidden by trees?

Yes it is. Others took much better photos here http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2016-07-29/dramatic-footage-shows-twister-above-the-skies-of-essex/

[weather09]

Quite high low-level moisture in tropical air mass being pulled in from far W/SW with low over the Atlantic, surging eastward over southern UK tomorrow ahead of attendant frontal system. Unfortunately, very little instability modeled- normally the case with Tm sourced air masses, though feeling warm and humid. 

 

Thursday looks a good chance of seeing better convective activity with showers and perhaps some storms, when we see shortwave aloft transferring east over the country introducing cooler air at mid-levels, steepening lapse rates, with a more northerly-sourced air mass post-front meaning clearing skies to allow for increased insolation, which, combined with cold air aloft, looks to generate substantial instability across much of the UK.  

 

Edited August 1, 2016 by weather09

[Allseasons-Si]

'Amazing' waterspout off Suffolk coast

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-36941468

[Chris.R]

There are some sferics  around tonight getting closer, but I think they  might be passing to the north. 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Great storm to my West right now, almost directly overhead!! It's intense 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Heaviest rain I've ever seen! Very gusty winds too!

 

[Nick F]

Looks like it was lively in the early hours just north and west of the central lowlands of Scotland.

A few more storms expected today embedded in convective bands swirling in across Scotland around a low moving in from the west later.

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-08-03 08:41:04

Valid: 03/08/2016 0000z to 04/08/2016 0000z

CONVECTIVE/STORM OUTLOOK - WEDS 03RD-AUGUST-2016

Synopsis

Upper low and collocated surface low will drift east across Scotland on Wednesday, bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms will swirl around this low pressure system as it moves across Scotland.

… SCOTLAND …

Upper low and associated cool mid-levels will create steep lapse rates across Scotland, steepest toward Nern Scotland. This combined with large scale ascent of moist airmass from upper trough and forced ascent in areas along bands of strong positive vorticity swirling around low moving in from the west will allow convective bands of heavy rain, accompanied by thunder and lightning locally, to move east through the day. Vertical wind shear will be weak/unidirectional – so no severe weather is anticipated, though heavy downpours in the convective bands could produce an inch or more over a few hours so could lead to localised flooding.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Tomorrow

Sunshine and showers for many, some heavy with hail and thunder across Midlands, southern and eastern England

Edited August 3, 2016 by Nick F

[NUT]

Honestly just missed that band you highlighted Nick by just a few miles. So close quite literaly but no cigar

[Evening thunder]

Quelle surprise tomorrows potential has downgraded compared to a few days ago and also moves across slightly faster, so it's the SE/east that sees the potential during the best part of the day while it moves away from the SW. Always the way these days.
 

[Raidan]

This is not good at all due to all the rain we've had over the last few days my roof has literally just started leaking and big wet patches in other areas and yes i am still talking about the roof lol, have had to move electrical items away from the leak which is annoying as i was watching the footie but now i have to try and fix the leak aaaaaarrgh.

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-08-04 08:38:39

Valid: 04/08/2016 0600z to 05/08/2016 0600z

CONVECTIVE/STORM FORECAST - THURS 4TH-AUG-2016

Synopsis

Upper and collocated surface low close to E Scotland will move NE toward Norway, while a shortwave upper trough to the W of Ireland moves SE into France embedded in strong cyclonic Wly veering NWly flow. Wly/NWly polar maritime flow will become unstable to surface heating across England, Wales and S Scotland on Thursday.

… S SCOTLAND, N ENGLAND, E WALES, MIDLANDS and E ENGLAND …

Cooling mid-level temperatures spreading from the NW and W in association with upper low over N Sea and shortwave trough glancing SW UK will create steep lapse rates as surface heating increases with sunny spells … yielding 200-500 j/kg CAPE. Showers already across the west this morning will spread/develop further east into the afternoon and become increasingly heavy with a risk of thunder as surface heating reaches its peak this afternoon. Vertical shear will be rather weak, so any storms will struggle to organise, with no severe weather anticipated as a result.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

 

Edited August 4, 2016 by Nick F

[Cloud 10]

A narrow line of intensifying showers heading towards Newcastle at the moment with the odd sferic.

 

[Methuselah]

And, not for the first time this summer, the heavens have opened!

[Gray-Wolf]

Don't know where to stick this post but over in the U.S. they just put up a severe storm warning for New Orleans....... any cameras out there?

[NUT]

5 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Don't know where to stick this post but over in the U.S. they just put up a severe storm warning for New Orleans....... any cameras out there?

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/neworleans/bourbonstreet/?cam=bourbonstreet

 

[Windblade]

Hi guys and girls. Sorry I havnt been around recently. I've been in Dorset on a biking holiday staying with a friend. Saw some lovely cloudscapes and some beautiful cells in portland last saturday, but was riding at the time with my friend and his Dad so sadly couldn't stop and take pics, although we did stop later in the hills and I got a few paoramic shots so will upload them at some point for those interested.

Site mods - Had a hard time logging in just now using the usual "sign in" pop up at the top of the page. I usually visit the site on xbox as I use it all the time and it's very convienient/fast and never had the issue before, but today the on screen keyboard kept dissapearing as I'm trying to type. I had to use the link at the bottom of the page (not ideal) which took me to a separate sign in page which then worked as normal. It also works fine on other sites so I think there is an issue there.

So, its nice to be back and also to see theres a small storm risk today. I wonder if the warm weekend might boost our chances over the next couple of days?...

[Sprites]

Went on a small storm-chase on 20th July, as some forecasts had been showing a chance of severe thunderstorms in East Anglia during the evening. 
After noting rapid growth of cbs to my west about 5.15PM, I headed out to Great Livermere which is a great place to watch the skies during thundery weather.

As i arrived the storm to my NW was rumbling constantly with mostly C-C lightning


storm was heading SE towards me


The anvil shield over to the east


Storm moving closer with most of the hail to my north , i did get a few doinks on the car roof from 12mm hail, and gusty winds around 40mph.
 

I drove through a couple of villages and found some flooding and some greenery from hedges and trees by the road due to a combination of hail and wind
near Elmswell i saw what looked like a funnel cloud



Further east at Mendlesham another possible funnel cloud was seen, and some foliage blown onto the road 




The storm was now over the Suffolk coast when i took these two photos,and still going strong,certainly moving away quickly.

 

One of the best storms for a few years around here.

timelapse here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NN-E31AMIHY

 

Edited August 6, 2016 by Sprites

[lassie23]

It all started so promisingly storm wise, but July and now by the looks of things, August as well, will end up being stormless here in London. Will be on snow watch soon instead

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, lassie23 said:

It all started so promisingly storm wise, but July and now by the looks of things, August as well, will end up being stormless here in London. Will be on snow watch soon instead

I doubt it will get that cold in this northerly lol, or is it supposed to last right out till november?

[alexisj9]

23 hours ago, Sprites said:

Went on a small storm-chase on 20th July, as some forecasts had been showing a chance of severe thunderstorms in East Anglia during the evening. 
After noting rapid growth of cbs to my west about 5.15PM, I headed out to Great Livermere which is a great place to watch the skies during thundery weather.

As i arrived the storm to my NW was rumbling constantly with mostly C-C lightning


storm was heading SE towards me


The anvil shield over to the east


Storm moving closer with most of the hail to my north , i did get a few doinks on the car roof from 12mm hail, and gusty winds around 40mph.
 

I drove through a couple of villages and found some flooding and some greenery from hedges and trees by the road due to a combination of hail and wind
near Elmswell i saw what looked like a funnel cloud



Further east at Mendlesham another possible funnel cloud was seen, and some foliage blown onto the road 




The storm was now over the Suffolk coast when i took these two photos,and still going strong,certainly moving away quickly.

 

One of the best storms for a few years around here.

timelapse here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NN-E31AMIHY

 

Is this the storm that produced a water spout just of shore?

Not quite sure if this was the same day.

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I doubt it will get that cold in this northerly lol, or is it supposed to last right out till november?

I meant the storm season looks dead in the water, so the next thing will be snow chasing in November lol.

Edited August 7, 2016 by lassie23

[Nick F]

GFS and ECMF, over last few runs, have been hinting at a southerly plume of very warm, humid and potentially unstable  air beginning early next week as an upper trough stalls to the west. Long way off though and subject to downgrades ...

[TropicThunder]

On 8/7/2016 at 09:26, lassie23 said:

It all started so promisingly storm wise, but July and now by the looks of things, August as well, will end up being stormless here in London. Will be on snow watch soon instead

Yes same here, May and early June were pretty good but since then the last two months have been dire, with barely even a hint of a storm.  Looking at the US lighting up like a Christmas tree on Blitzortung every day makes it so frustrating, really wish I lived there!

[Sprites]

On 07/08/2016 at 14:08, alexisj9 said:

Is this the storm that produced a water spout just of shore?

Not quite sure if this was the same day.

Hi, This the storm with the large hail was on wednesday 20th july. The waterspout was on a saturday, 30th of july i think as a convergence-zone moved slowly east.

Edited August 8, 2016 by Sprites

[alexisj9]

32 minutes ago, Sprites said:

Hi, This the storm with the large hail was on wednesday 20th july. The waterspout was on a saturday, 30th of july i think as a convergence-zone moved slowly east.

Thanks.