Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[ChezWeather]

Does anyone have the full lightning strike map for today? I know we were on 44000 strikes earlier and that was before this afternoons storms kicked off

[A.J]

3 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Well a bit congrats to Roger who called the past 24 hours almost perfectly... Well done sir

with genuine respect....??.....kudos for the call on strong storms over east anglia, but I'm sure many people in Dorset and Somerset are waiting for their intense action!......Nick F, W09 and Tony G over on ukww were bang on the mark, although before I'm jumped on, respect to everyone who had a bash at forecasting this complex convective outbreak, reagrdless of whether their forecasts were right or wrong

[Roger J Smith]

You may have noticed, the development was later than I expected in my outlook because I thought the first of two fronts would activate, but it waited until reaching the North Sea (other than a bit of morning activity in France). So because it produced no storms, the lower levels did not cool down significantly and the second front arrived in time to exploit the dynamics with even better upper support (deeper into the upper level trough). For the same reasons my thinking about late overnight storms failed in parts of the inland southwest. 

But I'm not surprised by the development being focused on east Anglia and Lincs, it's always best to be in the zone where a cold front slams slams into a warm sector rather than relying on an occlusion for uplift (that works better at night as they saw in Scotland).

I won't be surprised either to hear on later news reports that some isolated tornado wind damage occurred, from what I saw on the radar, a zone from 15 miles northeast of Cambridge to just north of Ipswich might produce that somewhere, although a lot of the track that I worked out on google earth is rural. Haven't seen any reports on here from Bury St Edmunds which looked close to the most severe development on radar earlier. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

with genuine respect....??.....kudos for the call on strong storms over east anglia, but I'm sure many people in Dorset and Somerset are waiting for their intense action!......Nick F, W09 and Tony G over on ukww were bang on the mark, although before I'm jumped on, respect to everyone who had a bash at forecasting this complex convective outbreak, reagrdless of whether their forecasts were right or wrong

The East Anglia event was not something I had predicted either, where we all learn!

[A.J]

2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

The East Anglia event was not something I had predicted either, where we all learn!

yup, kudos were it's due, it was a good call

[TheToastPeople]

What a storm that was! the am freqency was going like hell, Took these pictures after i stopped to let the storm overtake me. Cracking day!

 

Edited July 20, 2016 by TheToastPeople

[Delka]

26 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Mine were just a tad bigger last July 1st, but they're impressive. Is everything safe and sound?

From what I could tell, everything seems to be good up from the storms in North-West Norfolk.

9 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Does anyone have the full lightning strike map for today? I know we were on 44000 strikes earlier and that was before this afternoons storms kicked off

http://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/europe/index.php?bo_page=archive&bo_map=uk&bo_hour_from=0&lang=en&bo_year=2016&bo_month=07&bo_day=20&bo_hour_from=0&bo_hour_range=24#bo_arch_strikes_maps_form

95997 strikes since midnight! 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/europe/index.php (Also a good overview of today)

Edited July 20, 2016 by Delka

[Guest]

Just got back from trying to chase the storms. Starting in Manchester shortly before 5pm, I have been defeated by the weather and the insane traffic. M60, M6, M62, A57, A50,A34 and a number of the back ways and alternative routes were either blocked or almost static. After getting south and targeting the Cheshire Plain with a hope of following storms via the A50, I drew a blank. I did see some nice cloud formations but not an anvil in sight sadly. Some distant cumulus congestion was spotted amid the roadworks. Never had a hope of making it to East Anglia let alone Lowerstoft or Norwich

[Costa Del Fal]

Well done and thanks to all forecasters who had a go at this event. Plumes are never easy to predict. And well done to all who had storms.

Bit disappointed we didn't get anything here apart from a few distant rumbles earlier as in a good solid plume, we usually get something but this was on the whole very much a northern event so nice to see some others get a chance at some decent storms. However I'm not too disappointed as it always looked knife edge here but in return today was another hot day with plentiful sun again. 

Given how this plume appeared relatively out of the blue last week, every hope another will arrive before summer is out. Still a good couple of months at least of storm potential.

Edited July 20, 2016 by Costa Del Fal

[Dami]

11 minutes ago, TheToastPeople said:

What a storm that was! the am freqency was going like hell, Took these pictures after i stopped to let the storm overtake me. Cracking day!

 

wow toast great pics. Watched the storm develop over us then go and then it went mental, like I did when I knew bedford would miss it!

[Staffordshire]

17 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

with genuine respect....??.....kudos for the call on strong storms over east anglia, but I'm sure many people in Dorset and Somerset are waiting for their intense action!......Nick F, W09 and Tony G over on ukww were bang on the mark, although before I'm jumped on, respect to everyone who had a bash at forecasting this complex convective outbreak, reagrdless of whether their forecasts were right or wrong

Oh no don't get me wrong, congrats to everyone, maybe I should of worded the previous post more consicely... Congrats on forecasting what later evolved in the south eastern quarter of the country. Not taking anything away from anyone else, as always, excellent forecasts by all

[TheToastPeople]

1 minute ago, Dami said:

wow toast great pics. Watched the storm develop over us then go and then it went mental, like I did when I knew bedford would miss it!

Thanks dami It went off like a bomb over our town infact here is a picture of from just a few minutes before lightning was being detected!

[Guest]

Having had a bust myself, it would be great to see some photos of storm structure from today and or lightning etc

[Mark wheeler]

49 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Look at them badboys

Wow . And someone was saying a couple a days ago in the mod thread that this was not a plume event because it won't produce hail the size of marbles . So I guess this now is a plume event. 

[Dami]

1 minute ago, TheToastPeople said:

Thanks dami It went off like a bomb over our town infact here is a picture of from just a few minutes before lightning was being detected!

It went from zero to hero in minutes, the radar pretty much showed that, cloud over me, towers just over then it went dark. Gutted.

[Windblade]

3 hours ago, Harry said:

The line of Cbs across the N London skyline is breathtaking. Taken some photos although the grubbiness of the windows has spoiled them somewhat.

I saw that to the north as I got home. Couldn't believe the rate of convection.

[TheToastPeople]

1 minute ago, Dami said:

It went from zero to hero in minutes, the radar pretty much showed that, cloud over me, towers just over then it went dark. Gutted.

Hhhmm bedford does have a bad habbit of breading storms as aposed to them rolling on through, but hey maybe if we keep our fingers crossed we will get the perfect storm here one day!

[lassie23]

59 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Look at them badboys

Gallstones?

[Dami]

1 minute ago, TheToastPeople said:

Hhhmm bedford does have a bad habbit of breading storms as aposed to them rolling on through, but hey maybe if we keep our fingers crossed we will get the perfect storm here one day!

I noticed that A LOT.  It's nice to watch it all building, but annoying watching it move away, especially with the clear sky behind. Also If storms come from the west they end up being nothing  here then re-building later.

[Joseph Hudson]

wind picked up slightly still some dark clouds in the north 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

24 minutes ago, nwextremeweather said:

Just got back from trying to chase the storms. Starting in Manchester shortly before 5pm, I have been defeated by the weather and the insane traffic. M60, M6, M62, A57, A50,A34 and a number of the back ways and alternative routes were either blocked or almost static. After getting south and targeting the Cheshire Plain with a hope of following storms via the A50, I drew a blank. I did see some nice cloud formations but not an anvil in sight sadly. Some distant cumulus congestion was spotted amid the roadworks. Never had a hope of making it to East Anglia let alone Lowerstoft or Norwich

I feel your pain bro

[Supacell]

A disappointing chase day for me. I guess I can't win them all and I went wrong in a big way today. I headed up to the NE as this seemed to be the favored area for the biggest storms. Well I am not sure what happened but after the early morning storms which occurred before my arrival nothing seemed to be able to get going. I did get to see some nice undulatus cloud but overall not worthy of the petrol money. Then came the real slap in the face. Thunderstorms developed close to my home across the Peak District. I was already on my way back home by then so decided to try and intercept them. Well, this would have been easy had it not been for traffic congestion all the way down the A1. Even so, I somehow managed to get ahead of them... at which point they went from intense storms to drizzle. 

All that being said, there have been some awesome storms today for some and I am sure today will be remembered if you live in Scotland or parts of East Anglia.Today for me reminded me a bit of the 3rd August 2011. At this time I lived in Yorkshire, but I drove down from Yorkshire towards Cambridge to chase as severe thunderstorms had been forecast. I ended up seeing very little whilst a supercell raged through Doncaster (a town I drove past on my way down south). I got over that, and I will get over this... actually I already have. It can be frustrating though in this country with traffic, areas of no internet and the unpredictability of where the storms will be.

Being a storm chaser doesn't always pay off  . Some good pictures posted today though, well done those that did. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

34 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

with genuine respect....??.....kudos for the call on strong storms over east anglia, but I'm sure many people in Dorset and Somerset are waiting for their intense action!......Nick F, W09 and Tony G over on ukww were bang on the mark, although before I'm jumped on, respect to everyone who had a bash at forecasting this complex convective outbreak, reagrdless of whether their forecasts were right or wrong

I agree please can everyone remember a lot of people missed out esp. those in Dorset and Hants. However I will be studying CZ movements very closely next time as it turned out that that was the golden ticket today

Plume in the SE next week! Woot!

[Supacell]

It still feels horribly humid too.

[Frosty hollows]

Much fresher tonight here.We seem to have negotiated the transition to a cooler phase without any fireworks!!