Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[Dangerous55019]

Just been sorting the horses out, and this is the sky above me here... I doubt it'll do anything for us, but its all brewing up and heading northwards!! 
Enjoy folks 

[Dangerous55019]

For the record, the radio is still crackling with sferics, so there are some spiky storms out there at the moment by the sounds of it 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

9 minutes ago, Chris K said:

Come to daddy

Haha I saw that too! Here comes our severe threat!

Watch out for:

SEVERE shade

PROLIFIC breezes

BIBLICAL stratus cloud

and

CATACLYSMIC mildness

[Fiona Robertson]

About 8 minutes ago the BBC stated that "heavy downpours are expected in Scotland". It was hammering down for about an hour between 8.30 and 9.30 am! Expected? Expected??? How about currently ongoing north of here now! This isn't even a now-cast, it's a past-cast. "Let us tell you that you've just been rained on." Thank you, Captain Obvious, much gratitude from a very wet person who's just finished dealing with the horses.Without your magnificent insight I would have been left puzzled all day as to why water was currently dripping off me and forming a small puddle around me 

[Stormeh]

Here are some pics from what was an epic night here in the Highlands of Scotland and it looks like I am about to get more 

[Chris K]

4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Haha I saw that too! Here comes our severe threat!

Watch out for:

SEVERE shade

PROLIFIC breezes

BIBLICAL stratus cloud

and

CATACLYSMIC mildness

  Love this.

[Fiona Robertson]

BTW, pages ago, some time last night a poster commented that next time they go storm chasing they're gonna use a boat (because all of the activity was in the Irish Sea at the time.) I believe the last time those words were uttered can be attributed to Noah and we all know what happened to him  

[mardatha]

Power was off, just come back on. That's the first time in my 66 years I've heard continuous thunder- we thought at first it was a plane going over really low, but the noise didn't stop. Still rumbling around the hills here.

[joggs]

Low level cloud blowing from the n,ne here in West Yorkshire 

[P-M]

I can now hear thunder to my south - looking quite active on the radar too - come to daddy!

 

Sky is black to my south now and can hear near constant rumbles of thunder!!!

Edited July 20, 2016 by P-M

[joggs]

Where about is the cold front?

Thanks.

[P-M]

Big crack of thunder near by that long, loud rolling sound how I've missed it!  No rain or lightning like..

Edited July 20, 2016 by P-M

[Fiona Robertson]

9 minutes ago, joggs said:

Where about is the cold front?

Thanks.

Seems to still be off the west coast of the mainland, but I'm having trouble getting a decent look cos the Met office web site is having "issues outwith their control".

[Supacell]

I am currently near to Teeside and can hear rumbles to the east. Unfortunately the radar is down so chasing is proving difficult.

[P-M]

1 minute ago, Supacell said:

I am currently near to Teeside and can hear rumbles to the east. Unfortunately the radar is down so chasing is proving difficult.

If you head up the A1 or A19 towards Newcastle / Sunderland you should be able to intercept something which is moving west to east - a lot of activity on the front. 

[mckaymckaymckay]

Im in team valley currently. Alot of noise but not much in the way of lightning yet.

[P-M]

2 minutes ago, mckaymckaymckay said:

Im in team valley currently. Alot of noise but not much in the way of lightning yet.

Same here - to be fair not sure what's happening as the radar is showing intense echos but not really reflected on the ground here.  Also the line was supposed to have moved directly over me but not much change in activity..

[BrickFielder]

 Primary risk looks to move from Cumbria Lancashire towards the North East when looking at the Radar. Modelling suggests that north east  (hull north wards) mid afternoon may be at moderate risk of a severe thunderstorm. Backed low level winds suggest spout like weak tornadoes are possible here. One concern is that the CAP is barely broken until later in the day. Main risk is torrential downpours and lightning due to high cloud tops. The zero degree isotherm also looks a bit high for significant hail, but that is no guarantee.

 Secondary risk is across midlands to east Anglia perhaps a bit later in the day, but this requires a number of factors to come together which models find hard to predict under these circumstances. Net weather modelling suggest that some low level convergence will take place perhaps coinciding with the CAP beginning to relax a little late afternoon. When I saw this on the modelling yesterday I was expecting it to disappear, move significantly or be a lot weaker on the modelling today, but that does not appear to be the case. Once factor which has changes a little is the wind speed sheer through the mid levels which is a little lower making updraft and downdraft separation less likely. The slightly drier air coming in aloft is still there which is thought by some to affect any RFD (Rear Flank Downdraft - which is associated with tornado development). Vorticity charts suggest that if the instability is strong enough then these storms can create their own wind sheer environment.  For every 10 times I have seen something like this in the modelling then 9 times it has not worked out as forecast. Limiting factors are that the convergence zone may not appear, the CAP may not break and the wind sheer profile is not really that conducive to severe storm development. Something to watch out for, but very much secondary to the storm potential in Scotland and the north east.

[Boro Snow]

Same here strong echos but only had a few rumbles and 3/4 mins of heavy rain very strange

[mckaymckaymckay]

1 minute ago, P-M said:

Same here - to be fair not sure what's happening as the radar is showing intense echos but not really reflected on the ground here.  Also the line was supposed to have moved directly over me but not much change in activity..

Looks like retail world got hit, it shook the whole building.

[Boro Snow]

Any ideas photos don't do it justice though 

 

[Muffelchen]

11 hours ago, Insert Name Here said:

Aren't all squid damp?

I think you'll find they're moist....

[TheToastPeople]

Woah just watch the radar from when i went to sleep last night and im impressed with the strength of those storms up north! Hope a few lucky ones got a good show!

[Dami]

5 minutes ago, TheToastPeople said:

Woah just watch the radar from when i went to sleep last night and im impressed with the strength of those storms up north! Hope a few lucky ones got a good show!

It's really depressing especially when we got high cloud a bit of claggy nonsense and generally yuck.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Dami said:

It's really depressing especially when we got high cloud a bit of claggy nonsense and generally yuck.

Blue sky patches moving in now. A good few hours of insolation to go yet!