Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Just moderate rain now

[Frosty hollows]

The lighning radar looks amazing, if not slightly scary! Hope to see some pictures at some point!

[shuggee]

Hmmmm, Edinburgh might be getting a rare flash shortly.

[P-M]

Very unstable sky to my south now. 

[Frosty hollows]

1 minute ago, P-M said:

Very unstable sky to my south now. 

Looks like it's heading your way! Good luck!

[mardatha]

Terrific storm over us now, south of Edinburgh. Nevewr seen anything like it ever.

[P-M]

4 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Looks like it's heading your way! Good luck!

Hope so - I just don't want it to fizzle by the time it gets here!  It was clear blue skies before and now has become very unstable and convective.  The main storms are still a fair distance away unless things break out ahead of the main band. 

[Tempest]

Brilliant! The storms lasted almost two hours straight. Sky brightening now so reckon its done and dusted for me. Seems to be moving eastwards, no more coming in . I'd better not ever moan again about the lack of storms up my way. . Got some video but will have to check it out first as i am rubbish at taking pics and stuff.

[P-M]

3 minutes ago, mardatha said:

Terrific storm over us now, south of Edinburgh. Nevewr seen anything like it ever.

That's what we like to hear!!

[Fiona Robertson]

19 minutes ago, P-M said:

This set up almost reminds me of the thunder event we had in the NE back in 2012. Storms initiated and trundled from around the Blackpool area and by the time they got over the NE caused power outages, floods and prolific lightning that was to become the best storm event I had ever seen in my time.  Storms around Blackpool right now look to be headed NE'ly same as then - I am sitting with all digits crossed that they maintain strength and continue the way they're going!

 

Scotland looks like it's getting a good pasting right now - anyone with reports from that area?

Report from "that area" - Scotland's getting a good pasting 

[P-M]

1 minute ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Report from "that area" - Scotland's getting a good pasting 

Brill - enjoy!!

[Darren Bown]

Breeze that had developed here has dropped, it's warm and muggy again.

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-07-20 07:46:47

Valid: 20/07/16 0600 to 21/07/16 0600z

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - WEDS 20-JULY-2016

Synopsis

Upper ridge across western Europe including the UK continues to decline southeastward to allow the edge of upper trough over the Atlantic to move in across the far west of British Isles. A hot and humid plume across much of the UK has become unstable across the north and west overnight, as the upper trough edges in from the west. Forcing for ascent of hot and humid air by approaching upper trough, shortwave trough ejecting NE and developing surface low moving NE ahead of a surface cold front moving in from the west will lead to an increasing extent of thunderstorms across northern and central areas on Wednesday, some of these storms may be severe given favourable convective parameters.

… N WALES, MIDLANDS, N and E ENGLAND and SCOTLAND …

Overnight storms across northern Scotland will gradually clear this morning, but another area of storms, a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) is ongoing to start the day across N Wales, NW England and SW Scotland. This MCS will shift NE this morning across NW England and  Scotland and will continue to affect eastern Scotland through the afternoon. The main risk from these storms this morning will be torrential rain leading to flash flooding and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

Fresher and more stable conditions across EIRE and N. Ireland this morning will arrive across western Scotland, Wales and SW England this afternoon, with risk of storms diminishing here, as cold front moves in from the west.

However, ahead of the cold front, storms may re-develop across SE Scotland, N England, parts of the Midlands and perhaps eastern England (where they will be more isolated) as temperatures rise combined with increased forcing for ascent from approaching upper trough, shortwave moving NE and surface low across SW UK in the morning moving NE. Despite modest deep layer shear (20-30knts) – fairly strong low-level shear combined with 1000-1500 j/kg CAPE across N England, Midlands and E England may favour the development of strong and perhaps severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (2 to 3cm in diameter), damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and flash-flooding. Given backed SEly flow initially across N Sea coasts, high CAPE and low LCLs (cloud base) … there is a small risk of a tornado or waterspout across NE England and SE Scotland.

Have issued a MODERATE for severe storms across SE Scotland and N England for the risk of large hail, damaging winds, flash flooding and small risk of a tornado. A SLIGHT risk covers elsewhere across northern Britain for the risk of large hail, flooding and damaging winds.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

[Convective]

After four or so hours of continuous thunder, its finally moving out of here. Nothing was particularly close apart from the odd strike (see images), but perhaps something building on its way out of Wales at the moment?

[loubie_4]

Storm activity whizzed up just too far west to give us any action here - just a few distant rumbles and a few short showers. Can see much darker skies to my NW. Wish it had made it inland just a little more 

[P-M]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-07-20 07:46:47

Valid: 20/07/16 0600 to 21/07/16 0600z

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - WEDS 20-JULY-2016

Synopsis

Upper ridge across western Europe including the UK continues to decline southeastward to allow the edge of upper trough over the Atlantic to move in across the far west of British Isles. A hot and humid plume across much of the UK has become unstable across the north and west overnight, as the upper trough edges in from the west. Forcing for ascent of hot and humid air by approaching upper trough, shortwave trough ejecting NE and developing surface low moving NE ahead of a surface cold front moving in from the west will lead to an increasing extent of thunderstorms across northern and central areas on Wednesday, some of these storms may be severe given favourable convective parameters.

… N WALES, MIDLANDS, N and E ENGLAND and SCOTLAND …

Overnight storms across northern Scotland will gradually clear this morning, but another area of storms, a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) is ongoing to start the day across N Wales, NW England and SW Scotland. This MCS will shift NE this morning across NW England and  Scotland and will continue to affect eastern Scotland through the afternoon. The main risk from these storms this morning will be torrential rain leading to flash flooding and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

Fresher and more stable conditions across EIRE and N. Ireland this morning will arrive across western Scotland, Wales and SW England this afternoon, with risk of storms diminishing here, as cold front moves in from the west.

However, ahead of the cold front, storms may re-develop across SE Scotland, N England, parts of the Midlands and perhaps eastern England (where they will be more isolated) as temperatures rise combined with increased forcing for ascent from approaching upper trough, shortwave moving NE and surface low across SW UK in the morning moving NE. Despite modest deep layer shear (20-30knts) – fairly strong low-level shear combined with 1000-1500 j/kg CAPE across N England, Midlands and E England may favour the development of strong and perhaps severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (2 to 3cm in diameter), damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and flash-flooding. Given backed SEly flow initially across N Sea coasts, high CAPE and low LCLs (cloud base) … there is a small risk of a tornado or waterspout across NE England and SE Scotland.

Have issued a MODERATE for severe storms across SE Scotland and N England for the risk of large hail, damaging winds, flash flooding and small risk of a tornado. A SLIGHT risk covers elsewhere across northern Britain for the risk of large hail, flooding and damaging winds.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

 

That's given me refreshed hope - thanks Nick.  Just a question - are the storm moving NE from Blackpool area likely to maintain intensity etc as the head over to the NE region?  Sorry this is an IMBY post but just curious.  Cheers

[Mountain Snow]

Lots of thunder and close CG lightning, all happened too fast to get the camera and tripod set up. Very impressive storm, had some thunder I hadn't heard before, sounded like glass shattering?! Also knocked the electricity out for a short while, impressive stuff.

[Windblade]

4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-07-20 07:46:47

Valid: 20/07/16 0600 to 21/07/16 0600z

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - WEDS 20-JULY-2016

Synopsis

Upper ridge across western Europe including the UK continues to decline southeastward to allow the edge of upper trough over the Atlantic to move in across the far west of British Isles. A hot and humid plume across much of the UK has become unstable across the north and west overnight, as the upper trough edges in from the west. Forcing for ascent of hot and humid air by approaching upper trough, shortwave trough ejecting NE and developing surface low moving NE ahead of a surface cold front moving in from the west will lead to an increasing extent of thunderstorms across northern and central areas on Wednesday, some of these storms may be severe given favourable convective parameters.

… N WALES, MIDLANDS, N and E ENGLAND and SCOTLAND …

Overnight storms across northern Scotland will gradually clear this morning, but another area of storms, a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) is ongoing to start the day across N Wales, NW England and SW Scotland. This MCS will shift NE this morning across NW England and  Scotland and will continue to affect eastern Scotland through the afternoon. The main risk from these storms this morning will be torrential rain leading to flash flooding and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

Fresher and more stable conditions across EIRE and N. Ireland this morning will arrive across western Scotland, Wales and SW England this afternoon, with risk of storms diminishing here, as cold front moves in from the west.

However, ahead of the cold front, storms may re-develop across SE Scotland, N England, parts of the Midlands and perhaps eastern England (where they will be more isolated) as temperatures rise combined with increased forcing for ascent from approaching upper trough, shortwave moving NE and surface low across SW UK in the morning moving NE. Despite modest deep layer shear (20-30knts) – fairly strong low-level shear combined with 1000-1500 j/kg CAPE across N England, Midlands and E England may favour the development of strong and perhaps severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (2 to 3cm in diameter), damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and flash-flooding. Given backed SEly flow initially across N Sea coasts, high CAPE and low LCLs (cloud base) … there is a small risk of a tornado or waterspout across NE England and SE Scotland.

Have issued a MODERATE for severe storms across SE Scotland and N England for the risk of large hail, damaging winds, flash flooding and small risk of a tornado. A SLIGHT risk covers elsewhere across northern Britain for the risk of large hail, flooding and damaging winds.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Blast. Looks like the convergence zone has shifted northwards from the earlier forecast. Also, that lot of stuff I spied earlier coming across the channel is just cloud it looks like, so it looks as though we have another sweltering day in store in the south east .

 

Good luck to everyone else today who is in more favourable locations. The storms we have already had this morning look like real beasts on the radar.

[P-M]

1 minute ago, Mountain Snow said:

Lots of thunder and close CG lightning, all happened too fast to get the camera and tripod set up. Very impressive storm, had some thunder I hadn't heard before, sounded like glass shattering?! Also knocked the electricity out for a short while, impressive stuff.

That's a good sign then - I always fear that the heights around your region will kill off any storms but today doesn't seem to be one of those days!  Did the thunder sound like a very loud shot gun going off?  If so that means it's pretty much right over head..

[I Cumbria Marra I]

thunder again

 

[NUT]

Me of little faith in regards to the breakdown. Very very wet currently and have had rumbles

[Mountain Snow]

2 minutes ago, P-M said:

That's a good sign then - I always fear that the heights around your region will kill off any storms but today doesn't seem to be one of those days!  Did the thunder sound like a very loud shot gun going off?  If so that means it's pretty much right over head..

Yes there was loud shot gun thunder but also a strange low shimmering type that I can only describe as like shattering glass.  

[Geordiesnow]

Hmmm all a bit hit and miss really, at the end of the day, probably just a bit too far east but there some rainfall, thunder and lightning although perhaps I expected a little bit more than there actually was. Radar for this part is a little mis-leading but the models have pretty much nailed it that the bulk of the PPN would be in the Irish sea and in Western areas. 

[P-M]

1 minute ago, Mountain Snow said:

Yes there was loud shot gun thunder but also a strange low shimmering type that I can only describe as like shattering glass.  

Sounds ace to me matey!  I suspect it's something to do with the fact it was right over you and the area you have there so perhaps the sound bouncing around the hills / mountains?  Either that or someone's windows have gone in haha

[Ian Ballinger]

All I can say is   MEH!