Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[dave reid]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Radar looks pretty close to the GFS tbh

Especially as its the 12z run shown in the post 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Supacell said:

Which bodes well for both of us tomorrow

 

Indeed...saw that when I got in from work. Would be 100% ideal. We'll see I guess; this is one occasion I'm hoping the Metoffice end up with egg on their faces- although regardless of what's being televised, they can still point to their warnings that have been issued if things do develop more widely than their television forecasts suggest.

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

I just look at metoffice rain fall rader and some big showers in channel wich could  into a thunder Strom near Dorset and Portsmouth and this light shower near Wiltshire  could trun into a thunderstorms

[Geordiesnow]

8 minutes ago, dave reid said:

The CAPE is over most of the UK, just need a lifting mech.

 

i'm aware of that but just highlighting all those bright echos in the Atlantic, goes to show how things can intensify in a space of a few hours though so whilst the radar and even cloud images look rather ordinary, things can change quickly. 

[Insert Name Here]

From up here on the hill in Ayrshire I'm seeing some spectacular forks in the distant sky all across my south and west. There's quite a nice northerly breeze outside too at the moment. 

Havent heard a single rumble though. Just the noise of the wind. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Can I say 'bust' yet?

[Summer Sun]

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Can I say 'bust' yet?

He says yes

[dave reid]

5 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

i'm aware of that but just highlighting all those bright echos in the Atlantic, goes to show how things can intensify in a space of a few hours though so whilst the radar and even cloud images look rather ordinary, things can change quickly. 

And thats why were all here waiting, hoping, anticipating....................

 

[NUT]

Showers are around in scotland no doubt about that but keep fading on each radar return. Beginning to wonder if might be a little bit of a damp squid (although as SS posted a lot of strikes around)

[Insert Name Here]

3 minutes ago, NUT said:

Showers are around in scotland no doubt about that but keep fading on each radar return. Beginning to wonder if might be a little bit of a damp squid (although as SS posted a lot of strikes around)

Aren't all squid damp?

[sn0wman]

Isn't looking great here at the moment but still hopeful! Far west of Scotland looks to be getting a pasting. 

[Convective]

Its 12am, most of it wasn't meant to begin until 3am onwards... don't lose hope

[sn0wman]

2 minutes ago, Convective said:

Its 12am, most of it wasn't meant to begin until 3am onwards... don't lose hope

True  It is a bit worrying that cells started to form and then rapidly weakened as they drifted northwards though. Also, things seem to be going really quickly further west which concerns me. The night is early though!

[Tempest]

3 hours ago, Convective said:

4 minutes ago, Convective said:

Its 12am, most of it wasn't meant to begin until 3am onwards... don't lose hope

Maybe thats it though. Maybe it all came a bit early 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Expecting nothing here

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

What a light show I'm getting now!! Frequent lighting, will post some pictures if I can get some 

 

[MartinD]

My weather station is still showing 75f here in Worcester.... crazy!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Squall said:

Maybe it all came a bit early

I know how it feels 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

If this were a southeastern affair it would be going MENTAL by now 

[Tempest]

Just now, CreweCold said:

I know how it feels 

Lol 

 

sorry...

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I know how it feels 

[Ben Sainsbury]

By no means a bust, in my opinion looks ever more interesting for later tonight/tomorrow morning... Let me explain why.

More aimed at what's approaching from Bay of Biscay/English Channel, let's look at the area of precipitation.

What we can see is that, the small AcCas showers that have formed over South Wales as a result of the air having a higher effective precipitable water right?

The location of storms over the Bay of Biscay/English Channel is associated with the trough and is moving very slowly. Looking at the Surface Pressure Charts we can see the trough is moving through slower than expected.

This is promising as the conditions therefore look to be better in place for better storm development over North Devon/South Wales.

The storms out in the Bay of Biscay are actually associated with a different area of instability as we see here...

In the meantime I expect the storms to decay and become weaker in nature but by 3am, the blue line is where I expect storms to fire up quite significantly as it comes into contact with High Most Unstable CAPE, 40kts of DLS, 200m^2s^2 of SRH and High Effective Precipitable Water, which will all come into contact with the trough (Being the trigger) over the next few hours.

Therefore the place to watch within the next 3-4 hours is North Devon/South Wales.

Again I am only developing my storm knowledge and this is only an opinion. Being 17 years old this is not easy to take in, so don't take my opinion as definite. If any of you more experienced can direct me where I have gone wrong/correct me it will be much appreciated!

Thanks all.

 

 

Edited July 19, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[SnappyClap]

Dont Lose Hope

http://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/thunderstorm_satellite.asp

Check out that blob on the far left , its still developing !

 

[Rob Walker]

Just now, MartinD said:

My weather station is still showing 75f here in Worcester.... crazy!!

Doesn't surprise me one bit!   Only just dropped below 25 at the end of my garden (in Salisbury)!
Winds much lighter here now, and after a completely blue skies day can see the very first hints of cloud in the sky obscuring the odd star. Loving the pleasant temps sat outside as waaay too sticky in the house atm!