Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[Spikecollie]

6 minutes ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

I  am sorry i have autism my dad tell I have clum down if there any thunderstorms weather and I get to eixcted and my dad said to me tom things want it to thunder all the time 

That's OK Tom. I'm pretty sure I'm on the Aspergers spectrum too - but it gets easier as you get older. I get very excited about the elements, to the point of obsession, really, I guess. The plus side is that it makes you very "in touch" with the natural world. I get rid of all my excess energy, which can turn destructive, by exercise - but I only started learning this properly a few months ago with the help of an amazing doctor.

Thunderstorms are a great release of energy for all sentient beings, I love the feeling of discharging my energy with the lightning!

Try not to get too disappointed if you don't get much storm activity - it'll happen when the time is right. Enjoy the now - the warmth, the potential, the clouds. Losing ourselves in the power of nature is one of the best remedies us folks have...

[TheToastPeople]

Tempted to drive towards birmingham in a couple hours time, not sure if it will be worth the fuel though. but hey i wont be sleeping much in this heat tonight anyway. Good luck everyone

[BA Baracus]

Couple of random strikes, one in West Wales just north of Carmarthen, the other north of Dublin. They look oddly out of place, miles from the main band. More "fake" strikes? If so, what causes them to be picked up on NW radar?

[Tempest]

Phew its hot. 26.4 at the moment here with blue skies. My area updated again to show possibility of storms by 10pm but less for tomorrow. Poor old dog (not me, by the way) is sweltered.

[Mapantz]

Incoming screw zone, Wareham is moistening!

[Costa Del Fal]

37 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Triple point is (as you may know) the wave crest on the polar front or the northernmost position of tropical air on the surface. Right now there are weak sea breeze fronts pushing the tropical air east across Ireland and a cold front in central Biscay. The triple point is weakly defined at present, but by late overnight when tropical air is lifted off the surface in Ireland, a developing active triple point will be found west of Brittany heading towards landfall about Plymouth except that rapid destabilization late tonight may reset it closer to Portland for landfall. The feature will be much better defined by about 0600-0800h and will be moving in sync with the developing low pressure centre northeast across Britain. I think the cap will hold in regions east of a Lancs to east Wilts-Hamps line overnight but this development will rapidly erode the cap tomorrow. So the cap is only going to prevent some development tonight and may become a non-factor tomorrow, in any case the region it could apply to will be swept out east of the forecast region by the changing upper air pattern. There's going to be a "screw zone" probably, my guess as to where is west Midlands to Oxford. 

Is this screw zone good news or not for us in it? Lol

Edited July 19, 2016 by Costa Del Fal

[alexisj9]

18 minutes ago, davehsug said:

I would caution against googling it

lol

 

[BA Baracus]

Shower popped up just west of Greenock, Scotland.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 minutes ago, TheToastPeople said:

Tempted to drive towards birmingham in a couple hours time, not sure if it will be worth the fuel though. but hey i wont be sleeping much in this heat tonight anyway. Good luck everyone

I've already got as far as Bicester :-)

[alexisj9]

14 minutes ago, MartinD said:

Yep did the Google thing myself and nope.... it's not that lol

So what is a "screw zone"  

Ok I don't know but my best estimate from how it was written, where he thinks the front/maybe triple point will initiate.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Is there such a thing as an "undulating moist shaft"?

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

I'm pretty sure anyone looking for a screw zone could likely find one down one of the aisles in Wickes  I'm not sure if it's a good place to view storms from though!

[Karl83]

South Gloucestershire is moistening?

[Summer Sun]

A reminder for tomorrow Severe thunderstorms possible

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 20 Jul 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 21 Jul 2016

ISSUED 09:52 UTC Tue 19 Jul 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across parts of north Wales / northwest England / southern Scotland (and eastern Irish Sea) at the beginning of this forecast period, which will continue to migrate NE-wards through Wednesday morning, posing a main threat of local flooding from prolonged torrential downpours, gusty winds but also a lesser-extent for large hail - these risks included for the issuance of a SVR. Thunderstorms are also likely to be present across northern Scotland, exiting to the Northern Isles at this time also.

Provided enough insolation can develop in the wake of any morning cloud cover, strong heating of a very warm, moist airmass should allow dewpoints to reach close to 20C in some parts of northern and eastern England, yielding some 1,000-1,500 Jkg-1 MLCAPE. This environment will be heavily capped initially, but a combination of strong surface heating, frontal forcing from an approaching cold front and falling heights aloft as the upper trough advances could all serve to weaken the cap, allowing explosive, but isolated/well-scattered thunderstorm development to occur during the afternoon and early evening hours across central/northern England, the risk transferring eastwards towards evening.

This is heavily-dependent on an overlap of these ingredients, and it is possible that the capping inversion may be too strong in many areas. Nevertheless, should deep convection develop, high CAPE and 20-30kts DLS will allow any thunderstorms to become a little better organised, posing a threat for large hail to 3.5cm in diameter, strong, gusty winds and very heavy rain - hence the inclusion of a SVR to highlight these risks. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-07-20

[TheToastPeople]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I've already got as far as Bicester :-)

Awesome! you heading the same way then?

[Spikecollie]

3 minutes ago, Squall said:

Phew its hot. 26.4 at the moment here with blue skies. My area updated again to show possibility of storms by 10pm but less for tomorrow. Poor old dog (not me, by the way) is sweltered.

Dogs look after themselves in this kind of weather. My next door neighbour's Jack Russell is usually insanely barking at passing traffic and people. He's crashed in the garage at the moment and has been all day! A wet-shirt does wonders for your pup if they are really uncomfortable. Soak the shirt and slip their head/neck through the head hole and put their front legs through the armholes. You can keep it wet then. Or just gently hose them if they like that.

Does he/she like storms? My Border Collie was my storm watching companion...I'm going to bring up out next pup(s) to be the same.

[Dangerous55019]

The sky is currently starting to look more promising here now. 

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Is there such a thing as an "undulating moist shaft"?

Only after the watershed.

[Joseph Hudson]

I can see some convection north west of portsmouth not sure where that would be but it is fair distance away 

Edited July 19, 2016 by Joseph Hudson

[Spikecollie]

3 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

The sky is currently starting to look more promising here now. 

Nice sky! Youl have full blown acas soon...

[Spikecollie]

Starting to get nice and active off the northwest coast of Ireland...

[alexisj9]

Still have nothing but blue sky here.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

8 minutes ago, TheToastPeople said:

Awesome! you heading the same way then?

That's the plan! Have a tank of fuel and a pillow, but need clean pants just in case of lightning strike

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

8 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Only after the watershed.

Hehehe must remember to set my watch correctly ;-)

[BA Baracus]

2 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Starting to get nice and active off the northwest coast of Ireland...

Couple of strikes off western Scotland too