Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[sn0wman]

16 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

When did I say they would be widespread. Think I'm going to stick to the UKWW forum, I can get through a day without getting slaughtered.

I really think you'd be less disappointed with every thundery event if you stopped only taking in information that appeals to your area. It's tempting to do so but it really skews your point of view. For every forecaster that is predicting a high chance of thunderstorms in your area tonight, there will be a hundred others that are forecasting a very low risk of thunderstorms in the South West. Also, you seem to berate anyone who suggests thunderstorms aren't likely in your area which is a bit disheartening for people who put a lot of work into forecasts. Having said that, I've noticed people tend to gang up on you whenever you get excited about a potential event and it's a bit cruel. Pretty sure everyone interested in weather at your age (myself included) would get over-excited at weather events and ignore any unfavourable predictions. 

[Spikecollie]

4 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

.....back on topic........some cas with virga way off to my north west drifting up from the south west, bodes well for areas ooop north later tonight/tomorrow...good luck chaps/chapesses 

I can't wait to see what happens in Yorkshire - hubby is very worried about potentially damaging storms, though. I have early work in the morning, but I'll stay up as long as I can to follow developments. I think I would prefer spectacular but safe...

[Darren Bown]

Just now, Spikecollie said:

I can't wait to see what happens in Yorkshire - hubby is very worried about potentially damaging storms, though. I have early work in the morning, but I'll stay up as long as I can to follow developments. I think I would prefer spectacular but safe...

Going off the BBC forecast just now, Yorkshire was hardly mentioned! So surprised with that forecast.

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

I can those showers turning in thunderstorms  on metoffice rain fall radar moving up south west   from lands end and it will hit warminster in Wiltshire to night 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Lightning to the S of Ireland looks to be heading northeast towards Cornwall. Is this likely to be steered further North? 

[Boro Snow]

Are the BBC down playing this because the weather i just watched on the 6 oclock news was nothing spectacular, the local news was even worse thunder was not hardly mentioned and in fact tomorrow is just a few heavy showers scattered about and the graphics where even worse 

[Guest]

The lovely Keeley on Look North mentioned a few thunderstorms over the Pennines towards the end of the night before further very heavy thunderstorms tomorrow - but very hit and miss!

[Darren Bown]

1 minute ago, Boro Snow said:

Are the BBC down playing this because the weather i just watched on the 6 oclock news was nothing spectacular, the local news was even worse thunder was not hardly mentioned and in fact tomorrow is just a few heavy showers scattered about and the graphics where even worse 

I'm glad it wasn't just me who saw that. Total change on the forecast there. Though the BBC forecast at 7 was from 1pm, and was different again haha!

[P-M]

6 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

Going off the BBC forecast just now, Yorkshire was hardly mentioned! So surprised with that forecast.

I wouldn't take much notice of the Beeb forecasts mate - PPN and storms are hard to predict even for the more seasoned forecaster.  All of the ingredients are there for storms in some areas (yours included and Yorkshire) but as always it might not happen in your own locale.  Best thing in these set ups is stayed tuned to Netweather keep an eye on the radar and listen for storm reports as and when they appear.  Taking BBC forecasts at face value can be soul destroying sometimes so I've learned to follow the Metoffice website and warning but more importantly the forecasters and more knowledgeable posters on here and over on UKWW are usually very good to follow in my opinion.

[Guest]

Altocumulus filling up the sky here now. First time the sun has gone in! 

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

I can feel the thunder towards Wiltshire to night 

[Weather-history]

Decided that to watch BBC NW weather forecast, very rare for me. I wish I hadn't. A waste of time, clueless Diane Oxberry was doing it.  She said there has hardly been a breath of wind today and the fact she was at Salford Docks and there was a breeze there is because she was near water. There has been a breeze most of the day, it has tempered the heat somewhat, you silly woman.

[sconetone]

Well I'll be at the dentist tomorrow early afternoon having a tooth pulled out.

 

Could be rather 'atmospheric' while he's probing my cavity......

 

[Nick Wall]

Hmmm, what to think......

[Guest]

Just now, Weather-history said:

Decided that to watch BBC NW weather forecast, very rare for me. I wish I hadn't. A waste of time, clueless Diane Oxberry was doing it.  She said there has hardly been a breath of wind today and the fact she was at Salford Docks and there was a breeze there is because she was near water. There has been a breeze most of the day, it has tempered the heat somewhat, you silly woman.

Bleurgh, I hate it when they are presenters first, forecasters second. 

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Decided that to watch BBC NW weather forecast, very rare for me. I wish I hadn't. A waste of time, clueless Diane Oxberry was doing it.  She said there has hardly been a breath of wind today and the fact she was at Salford Docks and there was a breeze there is because she was near water. There has been a breeze most of the day, it has tempered the heat somewhat, you silly woman.

It seems that BBC regional forecasters presenters are mostly clueless nationwide.

Edited July 19, 2016 by Nick L

[gregior]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Bleurgh, I hate it when they are presenters first, forecasters second. 

Run rings around Eno though now she really is terrible!

[Chris K]

Good luck those in the main risk zones. Hopefully look forward to some pics & videos if things do initiate.

Will keep an eye on the thread, but its time to head to the pub garden to wave the heat away, considering no storms will be 

Stay safe!

[Roger J Smith]

Here's my analysis and forecast:

Very high potential for severe thunderstorm development overnight and Wednesday in many parts of Britain, Northern Ireland and adjacent counties of ROI. 

First round will come this evening in west Ulster and north Connacht in Ireland, possibly extending later into Leinster and east Ulster. This complex will produce locally heavy rainfalls and intense lightning. It will move north towards western Isles overnight. 

The Biscay wave will move rather steadily northeast across Irish Sea, northwest Wales into northern England late tonight, with triple point forcing late overnight from western Channel into south central England. Both of these forcing events will produce widespread thunderstorms during the night from southern Scotland all the way south to Dorset and Hampshire. Some of the more intense action will be in central Wales, around Somerset and Dorset.

Tomorrow morning, the heat will be increasingly confined to eastern England and the triple point will move northeast across the Midlands towards southeast Yorkshire. This will bring remnants of the overnight activity northeast along a strong cold front. While that may become inactive briefly it will tend to flare up quickly around 1100h when it is projected to lie in an arc from about central Lincs to just north of London and across the Sussex coast. Isolated severe cells may develop that early and more certainly by 1200-1300h when the front is likely to be closer to the North Sea coast from Lincs to Kent. Best chances for severe storms tomorrow will probably be around Peterborough, Cambridge, Stanstead airport, Norwich, Ipswich, and northeast greater London into eastern half of Kent. South and east Yorkshire cannot be ruled out. Same applies to the more westward portions of East Anglia into the Bedford and Luton areas.

These storms will produce gusty winds to 70 mph and hail, and contain a slight risk of a tornado. 

Potential appears higher than GFS guidance would suggest because of rapid trough development producing fast destabilization tomorrow, combined with very unstable parameters near frontal zone and advection of higher dew points from France overnight. Heathrow could be at 32/21 just before front approaches around 1100h, This is as close as things get to plains states dynamics in England. 

[P-M]

2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Here's my analysis and forecast:

Very high potential for severe thunderstorm development overnight and Wednesday in many parts of Britain, Northern Ireland and adjacent counties of ROI. 

First round will come this evening in west Ulster and north Connacht in Ireland, possibly extending later into Leinster and east Ulster. This complex will produce locally heavy rainfalls and intense lightning. It will move north towards western Isles overnight. 

The Biscay wave will move rather steadily northeast across Irish Sea, northwest Wales into northern England late tonight, with triple point forcing late overnight from western Channel into south central England. Both of these forcing events will produce widespread thunderstorms during the night from southern Scotland all the way south to Dorset and Hampshire. Some of the more intense action will be in central Wales, around Somerset and Dorset.

Tomorrow morning, the heat will be increasingly confined to eastern England and the triple point will move northeast across the Midlands towards southeast Yorkshire. This will bring remnants of the overnight activity northeast along a strong cold front. While that may become inactive briefly it will tend to flare up quickly around 1100h when it is projected to lie in an arc from about central Lincs to just north of London and across the Sussex coast. Isolated severe cells may develop that early and more certainly by 1200-1300h when the front is likely to be closer to the North Sea coast from Lincs to Kent. Best chances for severe storms tomorrow will probably be around Peterborough, Cambridge, Stanstead airport, Norwich, Ipswich, and northeast greater London into eastern half of Kent. South and east Yorkshire cannot be ruled out. Same applies to the more westward portions of East Anglia into the Bedford and Luton areas.

These storms will produce gusty winds to 70 mph and hail, and contain a slight risk of a tornado. 

Potential appears higher than GFS guidance would suggest because of rapid trough development producing fast destabilization tomorrow, combined with very unstable parameters near frontal zone and advection of higher dew points from France overnight. Heathrow could be at 32/21 just before front approaches around 1100h, This is as close as things get to plains states dynamics in England. 

Thanks for the update Roger - look forward to seeing how this pans out.  I like the fact it's slightly at odds with what's forecast but makes it more interesting to see how things really pan out in the real world AKA now casting!

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

It looks sky over here in warminster looks thundery 

[Thundery wintry showers]

10 July 2015 had scattered thunderstorms across the South West which were almost completely unforecast.  Hoping for something like that later this evening, but I think to be honest, most of tonight's thundery activity is likely to be reserved for Wales, the far west of northern England and southern and western Scotland, together with parts of Ireland (especially eastern Ireland)..  I saw a surprisingly big thunderstorm when staying in a hotel near Dumfries on 23 July 2013 and it looks like that area could well be a hotspot this time around too.  The lightning activity will probably fade once the band gets into northern Scotland.

Tomorrow afternoon may see some heavy thundery showers kick off in some eastern areas, particularly NE England.

Edited July 19, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers

[weather09]

Where's the triple point, Roger? How would that overcome the strong cap at low-levels? 

[Roger J Smith]

Triple point is (as you may know) the wave crest on the polar front or the northernmost position of tropical air on the surface. Right now there are weak sea breeze fronts pushing the tropical air east across Ireland and a cold front in central Biscay. The triple point is weakly defined at present, but by late overnight when tropical air is lifted off the surface in Ireland, a developing active triple point will be found west of Brittany heading towards landfall about Plymouth except that rapid destabilization late tonight may reset it closer to Portland for landfall. The feature will be much better defined by about 0600-0800h and will be moving in sync with the developing low pressure centre northeast across Britain. I think the cap will hold in regions east of a Lancs to east Wilts-Hamps line overnight but this development will rapidly erode the cap tomorrow. So the cap is only going to prevent some development tonight and may become a non-factor tomorrow, in any case the region it could apply to will be swept out east of the forecast region by the changing upper air pattern. There's going to be a "screw zone" probably, my guess as to where is west Midlands to Oxford. 

[Nick Wall]

Here's hoping