Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[Mr_ Nexus]

These clouds are currently passing over the Black country and the breeze has picked up !

Hoping for some storm action here tonight or tomorrow

[ChezWeather]

Well being in Lincolnshire it looks like tomorrow afternoon will provide a slim chance of a storm for me. 

Typical really that i spend a week in the storm capital of the UK and we get a western setup

[Nick L]

8 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Let's just appreciate the quality/accuracy of the Netwx SR Precipitation Charts!

Well, ignoring the mass of rain to the S of Ireland of course

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just now, Nick L said:

Well, ignoring the mass of rain to the S of Ireland of course

Maybe a little behind on that?

Possibly could see a breakdown beginning a little further south possibly?

[Arnie Pie]

Yes skies above our area looking interesting...as Mr Nexus mentioned warn breeze picking up

[Costa Del Fal]

Tony on UkWW has issued his forecast for tomorrow. Great for northern areas but not here, same for convective weather. Can see storms beginning around Stoke northwards. Dry for us in the Midlands and South I'm afraid it looks to be.

best of luck to all concerned though

Edited July 19, 2016 by Costa Del Fal

[Darren Bown]

Going to be an interesting night into tomorrow. I'm still uncertain of my chances, being west in the region, I'm probably slightly more likely than say, Manchester, but it's all to play for. With the highest CAPE and LIs practically overhead tonight!

[William Grimsley]

Hi everyone,

Well, certainly won't be getting much rain tonight that's for sure, lightning a lot I hope, but we shall have to see. Sky has been fairly unstable with various patches of Altocumulus and Altocumulus Castellanus cloud through today, good luck folks.

[Lauren]

So basically nothing for the South, yes?

[bigguscumulus]

A nice line of fluffy cumulus working it's way up the coast.

[Chris K]

1 minute ago, Lauren said:

So basically nothing for the South, yes?

Personally I doubt it, in line with what the models have shown past couple of days really.

[William Grimsley]

2 minutes ago, Lauren said:

So basically nothing for the South, yes?

If you're looking for rain no, if you're looking for thunderstorms, possibly.

[Mapantz]

Hurricanes? Yes, but no wind and rain. 

[P-M]

13 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Tony on UkWW has issued his forecast for tomorrow. Great for northern areas but not here, same for convective weather. Can see storms beginning around Stoke northwards. Dry for us in the Midlands and South I'm afraid it looks to be.

best of luck to all concerned though

Without sounding like a stuck record I am loving that forecast!!!!  I know usual rules apply etc (not all areas will see something) but still fantastic to read - so elevated storm risk through the early hours progressing to a stronger storm risk as we move in to tomorrow.  Reminds me of Thunder Thursday back in 2012 when all the forecasters where saying storms down central areas and Tony picked the NE out for strong storms - low and behold it happened.  He knows his stuff - as long as there's a chance I am happy

[A.J]

3 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

If you're looking for rain no, if you're looking for thunderstorms, possibly.

very unlikely though it has to be said...........possibly some lightning for cornwall, west/north devon, but most of the overnight activity will be over the irish sea heading into NW england and southern scotland....as for tomorrow, as per all the main forecasts, Wales, north midlands northwards, unlikely elsewhere.....occasionally the weather can throw a curve ball, but it's a thin and very weedy straw to clutch sadly

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

9 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Hi everyone,

Well, certainly won't be getting much rain tonight that's for sure, lightning a lot I hope, but we shall have to see. Sky has been fairly unstable with various patches of Altocumulus and Altocumulus Castellanus cloud through today, good luck folks.

I just look on met office rain fall radar and some little showers moving up lands end 

[Dangerous55019]

Meanwhile, here in North East Wales...
Sadly, its hardly a supercell thunderstorm 

... But I remember the Spanish Plume event of August last year, nothing until 19.00, and then everything started to brew up... An hour or so later... 
So I'm still keeping the faith this end 

[IanR]

looks a good chance here , hmmmm we will see,

 unfortunatley, if it happens it could be during the early hours when i want sleep.  work tommorrow damn 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just now, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

I just look on met office rain fall radar and some little showers moving up lands end 

Use the Netweather Radar includes 5 min updates and better in my opinion!

[Supacell]

It's been up to a stifling 33c here. Currently a humidex temperature of 40c in parts of the NW, that is horrendous for trying to do anything in!

Work is done now until Thursday and so I am all set to go out storm chasing. Some models (GFS) bring the storm risk southeast enough to affect the N Midlands and so I could stay at home but on this occasion I do not want to take the gamble. I would much prefer to pay the petrol and head north, as I feel the rewards could be worth it. My only area of confusion is whether to bother chasing tonight. If NW England or N Wales are in the firing line then I will, but I am not travelling all the way to W Scotland regardless of whats on offer. Tomorrow is definite for me whether I chase tonight or not, with my target area being NE England (E Yorkshire up towards Newcastle)

[William Grimsley]

6 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

very unlikely though it has to be said...........possibly some lightning for cornwall, west/north devon east devon, but most of the overnight activity will be over the irish sea heading into NW england and southern scotland....as for tomorrow, as per all the main forecasts, Wales, north midlands northwards, unlikely elsewhere.....occasionally the weather can throw a curve ball, but it's a thin and very weedy straw to clutch sadly

Maybe, but the sky here is loaded with energy and it's already kicking off south of here anyway, so it'll be an interesting evening, more proffesional weather forecasters think different.

Edited July 19, 2016 by William Grimsley

[MartinD]

Some clouds now bubbling up over Worcester with a very warm strong breeze and dam it's hot, was looking forward to some storms tonight but no chance really now for us but 92.7f at 6pm.... Last time i remember that was in Darwin, OZ back in 2003.

[A.J]

Just now, William Grimsley said:

Maybe, but the sky here is loaded with energy and it's already kicking off south of here anyway, so it'll be an interesting evening, more proffesional weather forecasters think different.

a couple of light showers in the english channel is hardly 'kicking off' at this stage....lol....................not sure what you mean about the bolded bit of your posts, I presume you mean, most if not all professional forecasters are going by the met office forecasts which I pretty much paraphrased in the original post?

[William Grimsley]

2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

a couple of light showers in the english channel is hardly 'kicking off' at this stage....lol....................not sure what you mean about the bolded bit of your posts, I presume you mean, most if not all professional forecasters are going by the met office forecasts which I pretty much paraphrased in the original post?

I'm on about a weather forecaster at the Met Office. Oh really? Well, if you take a look at the weather forecast for here, it says thunderstorms.

Edited July 19, 2016 by William Grimsley

[StormChaseUK]

Phew its warm