Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[Windblade]

Still not a single cloud in any direction as far as the horizon.

[MrNooo]

Had it here a couple of years ago, stunning lightening display and plenty of noise, just sat outside and watched it, never saw a drop of rain or any evidence of any falling from the cloud.

[StormChaseUK]

I think they mean lightning without rain, really hot summer days give elevated storms which are mostly lightning/ with little rain.

[Harry]

Correct me if I am wrong, but you need a seriously dry layer below the thundercloud to end up with that eventuality?

Most of the air in the thunder prone areas will contain a lot of moisture and therefore I would think a dry thunderstorm would be quite unlikely.

[alexisj9]

Wow think the moisture plume is arriving, been hot all day but now it's wet heat yuk. Good luck further north. Nothing here cloud wise must be well capped.

[BA Baracus]

Heavy rain now approaching southern Ireland. More interesting is a single shower that has appeared to the west of northern Ireland just out over the sea. Is this the first of many?

[kar999]

Out on the Llyn peninsula and not a cloud in sky over the Irish Sea or in fact any direction.

Just a few high level wisps inland. A steady light onshore breeze has developed but is more like the hot air blast from an oven rather than refreshing!

 

Edited July 19, 2016 by kar999

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Mainland Spain, Arizona, parts of Australia  and other arid regions experience dry storms quite often. They are quite spectacular. I think 1st July last year there was a few flashes from one over Northamptonshire, but then died shortly after. 

Hope we see some, but I think there's too much moisture in this setup. 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

This is the current view to the SSE, lots of clouds rolling in 

[Nick L]

5 minutes ago, Harry said:

Correct me if I am wrong, but you need a seriously dry layer below the thundercloud to end up with that eventuality?

Most of the air in the thunder prone areas will contain a lot of moisture and therefore I would think a dry thunderstorm would be quite unlikely.

Yep, the prime example being the summer "monsoon" season in the Arizona desert. Need to get out there one year!

[sn0wman]

5 minutes ago, BA Baracus said:

Heavy rain now approaching southern Ireland. More interesting is a single shower that has appeared to the west of northern Ireland just out over the sea. Is this the first of many?

Nice spot! Looks like we have initiation slightly earlier than expected. 

[Harsh Climate]

Cloud building over wales on sat24, hopefully could be something developing inland.

[BA Baracus]

Couple of lightning registered over western Ireland. Not sure if these are real as I've noticed a few false ones on the radar today.

[Costa Del Fal]

I urge everyone to have a BBQ tonight, release some extra heat and energy into the atmosphere. Hehe.

shame to hear that perhaps dry storms won't actually be possible here given too much moisture. Never knew that. Ah well. 

[weather09]

Not one to follow a global model at this range, but ever so slight eastward revision upper/sfc pattern tomorrow morning on latest GFS, which in turn causes it to break out storms well into the W Mids during early hours/early morning.  

Please, make it so.. 

[StormChaseUK]

Yes the W. Ireland sferic is real.

[Greeny]

14 minutes ago, Windblade said:

I've never heard of lightning without a storm? I thought the two things were mutually exclusive.

I havent seen lightning without a storm as such but I am sure I saw lightning in blue skies without any knowledge of there being a storm nearby or even being able to see it. It became apparant on the drive home to Norwich I was about to witness the best lightning of my entire life. Must have been so much energy. A mix of surface and elevated I should imagine. I can see definitely how a stray lightning bolt could seemingly appear in blue skies out of nothing. I still wow in my mind when I think about it.

[Spikecollie]

1 hour ago, Windblade said:

Yeah, I cant really do that (I could, but I'd fear for my safety). I don't fancy coming off at high speed with no protection! Opened all the vents in my helmet and opened the visor to get as much air through as possible but its my back (have a rucksack on) and legs that feel the heat the most, even with my vented jacket on.

Sorry, you are talking motorbike, I'm talking mountain bike! Way too hot for a big jacket like you're wearing...

[Mapantz]

The question that i'm eagerly awaiting an answer to, is Camborne moistening yet?

[BrickFielder]

  A couple of straggler storms for late tomorrow afternoon showing up in the modelling  (Not reliable at this stage) due to low level wind convergence. Slight relaxing of the CAP could make it possible I suppose.

High instability maybe just enough wind sheer for updraft and downdraft separation and drier air from 500hpa upwards could create some stronger downdrafts. Something perhaps to keep a very close eye on if they do materialize tomorrow (moderate severe storm risk) (One model run should not really be a basis for any sort of forecast)

This is of course separate to overnight elevated storms and storms across northern parts of the UK and Wales throughout the day tomorrow (North East maybe in the firing line)

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just talking about the GFS 12z, since when have we ever seen an LI of -11!? With CAPE hitting almost 3000J/Kg!

On another hand as said previously, may even see a storm or two over North Devon tonight poss.

[liamtellis]

Interesting clouds from the South here in Cardiff. It's currently 31.8C in this park.

Edited July 19, 2016 by liamtellis

[BA Baracus]

More showers springing up over western Ireland. Be interesting to see their trajectory - they appear to be moving NNE but building further and further east.

[mardatha]

I'm in the hills SE Scotland, and there's lots of clouds coming over now, from the south west and heading north east. Was a clear blue sky earlier.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Let's just appreciate the quality/accuracy of the Netwx SR Precipitation Charts!