Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[Darren Bown]

The BBC seem to want to say there's going to be big storms tonight, but their graphics seem to not match?

The NW England local weather seems to be really playing the storm risk down with showers and the odd rumble of thunder.

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Darren Bown said:

The BBC seem to want to say there's going to be big storms tonight, but their graphics seem to not match?

The NW England local weather seems to be really playing the storm risk down with showers and the odd rumble of thunder.

Some of the comments by our local weather were really odd. "Looks set to be the warmest day of the year so far" - it already is! "Quite a muggy night" - mins of 23c are more than a "bit muggy". I suppose that's what you get when you employ journalists and actors rather than actual meteorologists.

[weather09]

11 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Hopefully the Ac cas is a good sign for later though chances remain below 20% imo. Gfs looks good but not really being a hi res model it is probably too broad brushed with the Ppn. Hi res models showing that it's really a more confined event likely.

5km WRF-NMM has storms developing over West Mids during early hours...  

But makes it that much more sweet when you're not really expecting storms but then get them, rather than having good confidence that'll your area will be affected.  Sets you up for a letdown, if anything. 

[stevofunnelcl]

Very frustrating to see all this potential going to waste, as we sit in our 'outside ovens'

Scotland take all the snow during the winter, now they are stealing our storms as well

I blame that Sturgeon person (sorry couldn't find the ranting thread)

[James1979]

1 hour ago, Davethedog said:

It's that time of the year again! Please see attached for today's convectiv forecarsed. Optimised for your area.

Got to be the post of the month! 

[A.J]

1 minute ago, weather09 said:

5km WRF-NMM has storms developing over West Mids during early hours...  

But makes it that much more sweet when you're not really expecting storms but then get them, rather than having good confidence that'll your area will be affected.  Sets you up for a letdown, if anything. 

yes, not expecting anything here, in fact I dare the weather gods prove me wrong!...........reverse psychology, never fails 

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, weather09 said:

5km WRF-NMM has storms developing over West Mids during early hours...  

But makes it that much more sweet when you're not really expecting storms but then get them, rather than having good confidence that'll your area will be affected.  Sets you up for a letdown, if anything. 

I noticed that   pin the tail on the donkey time.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

All eyes on the bay of biscay. Was that even forecasted or could that be the warm front that's been appearing time after time on BBC? 

[Costa Del Fal]

5 minutes ago, weather09 said:

5km WRF-NMM has storms developing over West Mids during early hours...  

But makes it that much more sweet when you're not really expecting storms but then get them, rather than having good confidence that'll your area will be affected.  Sets you up for a letdown, if anything. 

Hmm it does on the meteociel France view but if you go to the uk view the Ppn is different and no storms although some Ppn moves through tomorrow mid morning. 

[BA Baracus]

Watching the Europe wide radar on loop that rain near Brest is heading for the southern tip of Ireland. May just clip SW England on route. Is this the kick start to the storms that are meant to start moving NE later this evening?  Looking on met office fax charts there is a trough(?) on the 1pm that does align with the rain. This looks like it will start to veer NE over Wales and west Midlands by 1am.

Roastingly hot today. Not a cloud in the sky. 

Edited July 19, 2016 by BA Baracus

[Mapantz]

18 minutes ago, weather09 said:

5km WRF-NMM has storms developing over West Mids during early hours...  

The Hirlam fancies a bit of that as well..

[Chris.R]

 30.3°C at home

[Dami]

1 hour ago, Davethedog said:

It's that time of the year again! Please see attached for today's convectiv forecarsed. Optimised for your area.

me today although i would move the white zone at the bottom of the page and have the storms above it.

[StormChaseUK]

The heat though... lovely

Actually this is quite similar to JULY 18th 2014  there were some storms betweens 1-4am in Midlands, medium level, very little rain, lots of lightning.

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, StormChaseUK said:

The heat though... lovely

Actually this is quite similar to JULY 18th 2014  there were some storms betweens 1-4am in Midlands, medium level, very little rain, lots of lightning.

And, funnily enough, the models had none of it...

[Convective]

Quite a bit of mid level cloud moving in from the south, here. Mostly stratus with the odd tower amongst it.

EDIT: Quickly evolving... the view just now;

She's gonna blow!

Edited July 19, 2016 by Convective

[Pursuer of Storms]

1 hour ago, Davethedog said:

It's that time of the year again! Please see attached for today's convectiv forecarsed. Optimised for your area.

Well played, sir. Well played. 

[StormChaseUK]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

And, funnily enough, the models had none of it...

Yes it also repeated the following night.  Dry all day sunny warm then overnight 1am-4am it just seemed to explode into life.

I remember very little rain

 

[Arnie Pie]

yep....2 years ago Birmingham`s Post office tower was stuck in the early hours...hoping that lightning does strike twice

 

[Windblade]

Absolutely clear skies here for two days in a row. Not a single cloud. Just the sun relentlessly beating down. Incredibly, stiflingly hot (trying to sleep last night, even with a fan on was unbearable). I was out on my bike earlier in it which is normally a good way to cool down (I have a vented jacket - basically a jacket with thousands of tiny holes in it for just such weather) and it didn't help at all, infact I felt hotter riding it then just sitting around in the shade (which in itself is unbearable at the moment, let alone a sunny patch). I think at this point its so hot here that all I was doing was turbocharging warm air onto my body as I rode along. What I wouldn't give for those storms the rest of the country is forecast. We really, really need some storms/rain/a miracle down this way at the moment.

Edited July 19, 2016 by Windblade

[P-M]

Remember this well - hoping for another repeat of the Thunder Thursday event a few years ago!  Bearing in mind this was the middle of the day...

 

Edited July 19, 2016 by P-M

[Joseph Hudson]

hi i'm a new member so hot in Portsmouth that I have my fan on and my window open . no convection I can see just bright blue sky's

  

[Windblade]

1 minute ago, Joseph Hudson said:

hi i'm a new member so hot in Portsmouth that I have my fan on and my window open . no convection I can see just bright blue sky's

  

Welcome friend (Nice pic btw).

[Joseph Hudson]

Just now, Windblade said:

Welcome friend (Nice pic btw).

thanks sorry don't have a camara on hand

 

[Windblade]

2 minutes ago, Joseph Hudson said:

thanks sorry don't have a camara on hand

 

Just to clarify, I wasn't being sarcastic, I was talking about your avatar pic (obviously a fellow star wars fan)! I never use real photos of myself online.

Edited July 19, 2016 by Windblade