Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Oooh wondering about driving up to the M5... Also my mum lives near Blackpool and my sister literally just moved to Manchester last night.

Is it worth a chase? Pull an all nighter and sleep for a few hours in the van? What if I dont see a storm? Or worse - what if storms break out nearer to home!?

oh uk weather - why you mistreat me so?!

[Staffordshire]

8 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Yes, 6z is pretty good for the W Mids but I have my doubts. Most hi res modelling showing little promise.

Is that just the gfs? or multiple modes, can't see on my phone  

[Dami]

To those who have storms, please take pity on us further south and post some pictures please. Some of the storms heading to you would be lovely.

many thanks.

 

[Nick L]

13 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

CAPE projections increasing on every run, as I've noticed for my area! Precipitation looks to cover West Midlands as well!

For the majority, it will be a good example of how you can have a ton of CAPE but no storms.

[SW Saltire]

Seems like i'm in a good position for these storms...

might get up a bit early but then again, they may wake me up! 

Hopefully get some lightening etc. 

Bring it on

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

For the majority, it will be a good example of how you can have a ton of CAPE but no storms.

Yeah exactly, reminds me of a similar day a couple of years back high CAPE Projections yet no storms, without a trigger no storms.

[weather09]

Yes, as Nick says, moderate CAPE building this afternoon will go largely unutilised given strong ridge aloft.  Have to wait until late this evening for heights to fall and forcing aloft to arrive from W/NW.  Also noticed 06z GFS suggesting Shrops/Staffs comfortably being within risk zone tomorrow morning.  Hoping might scrape here, though looks doubtful.

[Ian Ballinger]

I know you hate these posts, but what's the chances in my area?

[A.J]

27 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

I know you hate these posts, but what's the chances in my area?

see w09's post above yours.....it's a possibility 

[A.J]

sat24 is interesting....it's currently breaking out ppn in the bay of biscay drifting NNE in towards the Brest Peninsular.......clutching at straws but worth keeping an eye on as the day progresses

[Pat Butcher]

It's that time of the year again! Please see attached for today's convectiv forecarsed. Optimised for your area.

Edited July 19, 2016 by Davethedog

[weather09]

06z Euro4 really confining storm activity to N Wales, N England (emphasis on NW England), and then going on to dominate Scotland. Further development of sfc based storms over far N/NE during afternoon before cold front pushes east.  

Shame the heat is likely to go out quietly for much of the country. But I'll certainly be looking forward to reports and observations from those areas which are hit.  

[STORMGUY]

2 hours ago, weirpig said:

Yes it certainly does seem like a northerly affair perhaps central midlands upwards.   however as we know storms can develop anywhere  so a few may be surprised

A califlower cloud will begin to form over dudlayy castle tomorrow afternoon around lunch time may produce 3 inch Brussel sprouts wind will be very gusty at this time and will back build as far as Tipton so expect faggots chaps and pays there will be very dangerous cloud to ground lighting Wichita will be very very frightening do the fan day o galley lay yo these storms will sprout further north into northern England so watch out to yo lot up north the dudlayy storm will be a super cabbage by then.

[> mark]

2 minutes ago, Davethedog said:

It's that time of the year again! Please see attached for today's convectiv forecarsed. Optimised for your area.

Otherwise know as the Chilterns this year :-(

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, Davethedog said:

It's that time of the year again! Please see attached for today's convectiv forecarsed. Optimised for your area.

I've been studying this for some time now. Very useful reference material, thank you

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, STORMGUY said:

A califlower cloud will begin to form over dudlayy castle tomorrow afternoon around lunch time may produce 3 inch Brussel sprouts wind will be very gusty at this time and will back build as far as Tipton so expect faggots chaps and pays there will be very dangerous cloud to ground lighting Wichita will be very very frightening do the fan day o galley lay yo these storms will sprout further north into northern England so watch out to yo lot up north the dudlayy storm will be a super cabbage by then.

yowm yampy 

Edited July 19, 2016 by weirpig

[MrNooo]

19 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

sat24 is interesting....it's currently breaking out ppn in the bay of biscay drifting NNE in towards the Brest Peninsular.......clutching at straws but worth keeping an eye on as the day progresses

Yes, noticed that too. 32 C here now, not especially pleasant to be working outside in. Did notice earlier in the morning, one solitary cu build with a few haze caps about but all blue now.

[StormChaseUK]

Accas cloud fields now starting to form over Welsh/Shropshire hills

[Costa Del Fal]

Seeing some ac cas clouds here now. Very hot.

Edited July 19, 2016 by Costa Del Fal

[Mapantz]

Nice looking sat. I think that arc of cloud is associated with a trough?!

[MrNooo]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Nice looking sat. I think that arc of cloud is associated with a trough?!

I take it the lower, more fine cloud is sea mist/fog?

[Frosty hollows]

24 minutes ago, > mark said:

Otherwise know as the Chilterns this year :-(

Did yuo not get any earlier this season, albeit pretty discrete affairs? We've had one storm and rumbles from a few miles up the road thus far...the radar always looks like things seem to really kick off when they get to the M40 

[Shane Wheeldon]

35 minutes ago, Davethedog said:

It's that time of the year again! Please see attached for today's convectiv forecarsed. Optimised for your area.

Now this is something i can relate to living in Telford

[STORMGUY]

Some acas cast clouds floating over Walsall now

[Costa Del Fal]

Hopefully the Ac cas is a good sign for later though chances remain below 20% imo. Gfs looks good but not really being a hi res model it is probably too broad brushed with the Ppn. Hi res models showing that it's really a more confined event likely.