Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

8 minutes ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

I have got autism I all ways want it thunder over my part of Wiltshire yet again it ally miss me all the time  but really want it to thunder over me this mouth or next mouth August.

I don't know how this relates to the removed posts but I like it

:D

[A.J]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I don't know how this relates to the removed posts but I like it

me neither...................but in reply to Tom, sadly at this stage, thunderstorms look unlikely for Wiltshire in the short term

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

It's moving east! It's moving east! I can feel it!

[Costa Del Fal]

Hirlam 18z is quite interesting. First batch of storms NI/Scotland as per but then the second round Wednesday morning seemingly much more East than I remember on previous runs from it with precipitation erupting W Country, then moving through W Midlands before reaching N England. As said seems to have shifted East from previous runs or just also increased the SE extent of things.  Still against the main model consensus though for now at least.

Latest 18z NMM seems to break some cells out over the W Mids region too especially Staffs/Shrops but not exclusively.

Edited July 18, 2016 by Costa Del Fal

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

What about thurderstroms south and west and south and east get  when it comes up from France and move the English channel ??

Edited July 18, 2016 by Tom dewey likes thunder

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

14 minutes ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

What about thurderstroms south and west and south and east get  when it comes up from France and move the English channel ??

I doesn't look likely France will have any storms to give us :-(

[Costa Del Fal]

18z Euro4 rolling out and not much change to 12z. In fact perhaps a little less ppn N England early Wednesday but the model does develop some storms W Midlands on Wednesday afternoon. Other models have brought something similar in, presumably the cold front engaging on a still very warm, humid airmass. CAPE values etc still seem quite significant here at this point.

[Rob Walker]

Despite being out of the warning areas..... really hope this doesn't go to waste for nothing later in the eve!

Salisbury forecast Tuesday 6pm

28°c Temp          (metoffice 30°c at 6pm still)

76% Humidity

19°c Dewpoint

1784j/kg Cape

-9 Lifted Index

[Cheshire Freeze]

Euro 4 is pretty pants to be honest...precipitation mostly out in the Irish Sea

[Spikecollie]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I doesn't look likely France will have any storms to give us :-(

Sorry folks, hot hot hot here but no storms...

[Mapantz]

28 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Euro 4 is pretty pants to be honest...precipitation mostly out in the Irish Sea

I wouldn't worry about that for the moment, anything could develop outside of what is being modelled on the precip charts.

Hirlam/wrfda/NetWx Sr respectively:

  

[Geordiesnow]

I think there is way too much over analysis regarding PPN charts, at the end of the day, the threat of storms are there, how severe/widespread they will be is quite uncertain. 

I have to say, Wednesday afternoon could well be interesting for the NE, kind of reminds me of the 31st August 2005 storm of a cold front engaging into warm humid air and providing quite a severe storm, Timing of the cold front with daytime heating could well lead to some fun and games!

As for here, I have no idea and there is no point in stressing over it, the weather will do whatever it wants to do! 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

18 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I think there is way too much over analysis regarding PPN charts, at the end of the day, the threat of storms are there, how severe/widespread they will be is quite uncertain. 

I have to say, Wednesday afternoon could well be interesting for the NE, kind of reminds me of the 31st August 2005 storm of a cold front engaging into warm humid air and providing quite a severe storm, Timing of the cold front with daytime heating could well lead to some fun and games!

As for here, I have no idea and there is no point in stressing over it, the weather will do whatever it wants to do! 

Would love for a repeat of that day! Hands down one of the most spectacular displays of lightning in my lifetime on the late evening of 31/08/05. 

Arpege model is actually showing something nuts kicking off by holding the heat firm for Wednesday and temps in east Anglia rocketing to a staggering 35-36c, with a bow echo type feature developing over the Midlands heading north and east. 

Folks, this is going to be an interesting 36 hours! 

[toggerob]

Warm and sticky overnight here even with the windows open, watching the MAN overheads and inbounds before the weather-turns later on. The air feels potent outside for some good rumbles of thunder into the afternoon/evening.

[The PIT]

Thankfully not a sticky night here but still a warm one. Local forecast has now gone for showers here from late morning onwards. No mention of storms

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Interesting how the models are failing to grasp this. Goodluck to those who want storms further north, good to see people that usually miss out in with a chance.

Just don't get your hopes up till something is on the radar!!! It never goes to plan 

[The PIT]

Yup the radar is the key.

[The PIT]

Words of doom humdingers thats it folks

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

You just watch this cap is gonna shatter later on...

KABoooM!

BoOm!

[sparky1972]

Good morning all, well it sure is going to be a warm day today, but as for storms, it looks like they are going to be west and north of here, good luck to those that want the storms and actually get one, looks like the could be explosive.

[P-M]

Good morning Netweather! It's going to be scorchio today! Local forecast said could get to 30 here. I absolutely love a bit heat and sunshine folks as most do. Just come in from the garden and almost feels like them lush mornings when you're abroad. Anyway storm potential is looking good for some areas can't wait to radar watch tonight...

Edited July 19, 2016 by P-M

[P-M]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Words of doom humdingers thats it folks

You're right Pit and to be fair the BBC radar didn't look that inspiring just dotted the lightning symbols here and there across the north.  But, I wouldn't worry too much at this stage - as always PPN rates and locations are hard to pin down at this stage - it's a case of radar watching.  Have faith somewhere is likely to see at least something despite being jinxed but the H word! 

Edited July 19, 2016 by P-M

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

 

i think fance will give us thunderstoms and i think Wiltshire will get a thunderstrom to night or tomorrow I can feel it downover here

[Martin Auld]

Cirrus uncinus clouds have formed over Edinburgh this is a good sign

[Chris K]

7 minutes ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

 

i think fance will give us thunderstoms and i think Wiltshire will get a thunderstrom to night or tomorrow I can feel it downover here

At the moment there doesn't seem to be any indication of storms moving out of France into S UK. It all initiates along surface troughs/weather front to the West of England. around the Irish sea, into Wales, N England and Scotland through the night and into Wednesday. Not forgetting potential storms later today in parts of Ireland.

Watching satellite imagery and radars will be key now.

Edited July 19, 2016 by Chris K