Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, Evening thunder said:

Can Knocker confirm?

Rumour has it, Sydney is moistening ..

[A.J]

1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

"Camborne is moistening"

Don't post this, Knocker might get a tad excited 

[weather09]

48 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I would be a little concerned that this suggests convective activity (at least in a severe capacity) will be limited in certain respects.

I guess it's probably down to the fact we're about 24 hours out still, 

It should be the latter, because the models indicate conditions will be conducive for severe thunderstorms.  High moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability, and good shear profile (given increase in mid-level winds) points to a severe convective risk, with the strongest storms capable of producing large hail and strong convective winds, particularly over northern UK during morning into afternoon period.

Storms will start off rooted above the boundary layer, but what's interesting is if convection can quickly root to the surface in daylight hours. In which case the severe threat only heightens further, with the added threat of tornadic activity, given backed sfc winds and slight veering aloft. Just to note, however, elevated nature of storms doesn't preclude supercell development, as deep layer shear is more relevant for such storms. Low-level shear and SRH become relevant when gauging risk of tornadoes.  . 

 

[Boro Snow]

hopefully my location will see something over the next few days not had much this year

[William Grimsley]

21 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

it get's worse, you're not on the edge of the 'slight risk'....you're 100 miles south of the slight risk area...lol...............Bristol, Bath & Swindon are right on said edge

Whoops, my post has been corrected, I've been drinking too much lightning juice...

[A.J]

15 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Whoops, my post has been corrected, I've been drinking too much lightning juice...

can I have some please? I need it 

[William Grimsley]

Just now, ajpoolshark said:

can I have some please? I need it 

Of course, PM me.

I think we'll need it down here, I have my doubts about tomorrow, does anyone have any cows I can borrow to let off some methane to get some more energy in the air?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

can I have some please? I need it 

You should try one of those new cirrostra-teas...

mehuhahahauehehehehoha

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, William Grimsley said:

Of course, PM me.

I think we'll need it down here, I have my doubts about tomorrow, does anyone have any cows I can borrow to let off some methane to get some more energy in the air?

So, when I hear stories about 'someone' sneaking into farmers' fields armed with a Zippo, I'll know where to point the finger, Will?

[viking_smb]

I reckon the storm (s) tomorrow night will be more irish sea and make their way towards north wales if they do develop.

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

 Is Warminster in Wiltshire on the risk of thunderstorms tomorrow night or Wednesday because I really want see one over me in warminster this week in the mouth 

Edited July 18, 2016 by Tom dewey likes thunder

[A.J]

22 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

You should try one of those new cirrostra-teas...

mehuhahahauehehehehoha

* google translate has encountered an error and will now close* ...

Edited July 18, 2016 by ajpoolshark

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

 Is Warminster in Wiltshire on the risk of thunderstorms tomorrow night or Wednesday because I really want see one over me in warminster this week in the mouth  ??

[Muffelchen]

32 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

can I have some please? I need it 

So long as  it's moist.........

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

This time tomorrow night I'll be sweating with the radar by my side, looking out the window without blinking, hoping something severe will be coming my way!

[Chris K]

3 minutes ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

 Is Warminster in Wiltshire on the risk of thunderstorms tomorrow night or Wednesday because I really want see one over me in warminster this week in the mouth  ??

Always down to now casting and watching the radars, but in all honesty the main risk seems to be in Wales, Northern half of England and Scotland. I am not expecting anything here in Bristol anyway. Maybe some distant flashes in the sky if it occurs during the night towards Wales...

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

Will my part of Wiltshire a get a thunderstorms tomorrow night and Wednesday ?

[Costa Del Fal]

Latest GFS 18z perhaps increasing the SE extent of PPN, better for the W Mids tomorrow night but otherwise fairly little change. Could some of the models potential underestimation of the heat tomorrow affect their ability to compute how the cap near the Midlands might erode?

[stevofunnelcl]

Just come from the BBC One forecast after the news

Northern parts of Northern England / Borders / Scotland for any storm action now, if that forecast was right

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I hear that Kirklees is moistening

[A.J]

a couple of posts just removed...the first for being provocative, the second, the reply to previous post

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

I am not  happy with this weather forcaste because Evey time it gets hot over my part Wiltshire and yet again we miss out and I have got autism I agera with the weather forcaste  when it dosen't thunder because I really want to thunder in this mouth or next mouth in August 

Edited July 18, 2016 by Tom dewey likes thunder

[Supacell]

Ok, so we have Estofex on board with a Level 1 and 50% lightning risk across the N and W including Ireland and Scotland

.... Ireland and UK ....

Generally, the synoptic scale forcing is weak (advection of vorticity), but persistent WAA, LL moisture advection from the south and steep lapse rates create an environment with modest MLCAPE (1000 - 2000 J/kg - maybe more according to GFS) with a weak cap. Scattered thunderstorms will evolve during the day and will move in general towards the NE. 15-20 m/s 0-6 km bulk shear, high PW values (abate large hail threat) and low level veering within ongoing WAA regime in that CAPE environment support a favorable set-up for severe thunderstorm development. On the other hand, forecast soundings are not very favorable for long lasting DMC, as curly hodographs denote splitting multicells. The main threat will be excessive rainfall due to slowly moving storm cells that can cluster into short-living supercells. Nocturnal convection will also pose a threat for excessive rainfall and locally strong wind gusts. After 18z the increasing LLS, in the range 7-10 m/s, overlapping with some hundreds of CAPE, cannot exclude one or two tornadoes/landspouts in central parts of the UK.

www.estofex.org

Remember this is for up to 6am Wednesday morning. It is after this when the highest severe threat is likely. I would expect a level 2 to be supplied for Wednesday.

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Still going to stick with my prediction that I stated a day ago. Southern Wales into more of the midlands seeing a possible MCS. Noticed a very slight trend to the latest run to possibly kick things off further SE. 

BBC now stating 35c is possible over the N Home Counties into the southern Midlands, which would perhaps add more pressure on the capping further south more than maybe what the models are currently implying with a conservative 29-30c 

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

17 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

a couple of posts just removed...the first for being provocative, the second, the reply to previous post

I have got autism I all ways want it thunder over my part of Wiltshire yet again it ally miss me all the time  but really want it to thunder over me this mouth or next mouth August.