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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)

Guys, guys. Just been on the UKWW forum and a member has been mentioning of a potential burst of elevated thunderstorms moving north out of the Bay of Biscay tomorrow evening, I'm thinking this will effect mostly Devon and Cornwall but potentially Dorset and Somerset as well, something to watch, but apparently "Camborne is moistening" and CB's are coming out of Spain which as Ben has pointed out, wasn't forecasted. A very unpredictable 24-48 hours to come, but also a potentially exciting period too. Good luck, everyone. :)

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/113407-convective-chat-july-2016/page__view__findpost__p__984275

Oh, and just incase... https://video.nest.com/live/OIJL3I

Edited by William Grimsley
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted
1 hour ago, richep said:

bbc putting storms no where near us tomorrow night mate, just going to have to except we're not at risk this time around. Devon doesn't appear to be at risk at all

Local forecast has gone back to Sundays forecast of light showers.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Getting a sinking feeling about all of this now. Seems to be heading too far N of here which reneges on what was initially looking a very interesting event locally. Saying that, Euro 4 isn't really interested at all in anything severe for the majority.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Haha, I would hope you wouldn't be overly interested in any other of my movements :D 

@weather09 I am thinking either a trip to NW England for the overnight period or maybe get some sleep for the first half of the night and then head up into N England for the early hours and into the early part of the day on Wednesday. Although to be honest, sleeping in 21c with a thunderstorm risk imminent is easier said than done.

 

I'm thinking Owler Bar/Peaks early in the evening and go from there. Ideally I wouldn't like to go far but if it ends up being an all-nighter then so be it. I'm off for 6.5 weeks now anyway (the joys of working in education!) :D

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

I'd think most of the activity will be east of you guys, prepare to potentially chase.

I'm slightly worried if this turns into an all nighter, I've not witnessed an all nighter before and won't be able to if it doesn't occur here.

An all-nighter means staying up all night waiting for storms - not necessarily storms that go on all night! I'm not going to get anything here in Limousin either, William, but I'm happy to stay up and watch what happens on LightningMaps in the UK and northern France (perhaps). Having said that, last time storms were dismissed for here we had an absolute blitz. It'll all evolve between tomorrow and Thursday...

I just don't want my hubby calling me at 03h00 on Wednesday morning in a complete panic because there are huge hailstones coming down!

All is quiet for now, even in the Bay of Biscay...

Edited by Spikecollie
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weather09 Aficionado

weather09

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham
Posted

Consistency with latest ECM - NI/Scotland midnight; Wales, N England and south and east Scotland from 06z to early afternoon.  

Think much of W Mids is out of the game based on recent day's model outputs (apart from north-west of the region), which have remained solid with this outlook.  

 

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Martin Auld Contributor

Martin Auld

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and anything unusual
  • Location: Edinburgh
Posted

There is a single cumulus congestus cloud in the distance hopefully a sign for what might come in the next couple of daysIMG_0983.JPG

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Consistency with latest ECM - NI/Scotland midnight; Wales, N England and south and east Scotland from 06z to early afternoon.  

Think much of W Mids is out of the game based on recent day's model outputs (apart from north-west of the region), which have remained solid with this outlook.  

 

Agreed. Think we can begin to rule ourselves out now. Not a 0% chance but low I think now. Even in Wales it might just be the far west and North that catches something. SW Scotland looks the place to be for me. Ah well, I am enjoying the prospect of such an extraordinary day tomorrow. 33c at least according to the MO here now. And it always seems to increase that forecast on the day too...

Edited by Costa Del Fal
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Cambourne is moistening

Sorry, got out of the shower and I'd forgotten to put the blinds down :p 

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Sorry, got out of the shower and I'd forgotten to put the blinds down :p 

Ooh, matron.

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted
4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Sorry, got out of the shower and I'd forgotten to put the blinds down :p 

What a lovely sight, anyway... I'm not really sure what that means but I presume it means lots of electrical energy is about to go kaboom and blow a massive hole in the middle of Dartmoor?

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted
Just now, William Grimsley said:

What a lovely sight, anyway... I'm not really sure what that means but I presume it means lots of electrical energy is about to go kaboom and blow a massive hole in the middle of Dartmoor?

It means your Camborne has become moist. You probably need a sponge.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

 Any thoughts for Holyhead? I'm not going to be between the two lots am I? 

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NUT Accomplished

NUT

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
Posted

Had a few nasty showers here in my belt of the lowlands today. A taster of things to come I hope!

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

 Any thoughts for Holyhead? I'm not going to be between the two lots am I? 

Doubt it, for that location it'll be a nowcast event once the storms get going tomorrow evening.

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted

Has anyone noticed that a moderate hasn't even been issued so far for this event? I would be a little concerned that this suggests convective activity (at least in a severe capacity) will be limited in certain respects.

I guess it's probably down to the fact we're about 24 hours out still, but I'm sure at this point moderate or severe predictions have been made in past events.

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

God i hope some of this potential moves a touch south. Cant wait to see estofex's forecast tomorrow morning.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Has anyone noticed that a moderate hasn't even been issued so far for this event? I would be a little concerned that this suggests convective activity (at least in a severe capacity) will be limited in certain respects.

I guess it's probably down to the fact we're about 24 hours out still, but I'm sure at this point moderate or severe predictions have been made in past events.

Fair point. Given the available energy and shear (esp Wednesday) you'd think a moderate was warranted. Perhaps a few forecasts will be suitably changed (or not) depending on models runs tomorrow.

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)

My guess would be that the slight will be moved slightly south eastwards and a moderate risk will be issued for the NW part of the current slight risk area.#

41 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Can Knocker confirm?

Think Knocker is already moistened up.:rofl:

 

Edited by William Grimsley
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted
3 hours ago, William Grimsley said:

Oh dear, I'm right on the edge of the slight risk, looks like we'll see lots of Altocumulus Castellanus clouds overnight giving one or two thundery downpours before the main action starts through Devon, Wales and NW England overnight tomorrow.

it get's worse, you're not on the edge of the 'slight risk'....you're 100 miles south of the slight risk area...lol...............Bristol, Bath & Swindon are right on said edge

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