Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[The PIT]

Some weak attempts at convection going on radar showing nothing though.

 

Noticed the 12oz has shifted everything back south and east again so we're back to Sundays forecast basically. So I guess the jury out until tomorrow evening.

Edited July 18, 2016 by The PIT

[Nick F]

Not had chance to do a proper storm forecast for next few days, though have mentioned in my blog Brief Heatwave & Thunderstorms - What To Expect the potential for severe storms from the Midlands/S Wales nothward from late Tuesday through to late Wednesday before a surface cold front sweeps the very unstable, hot and humid air away eastward from the UK Wednesday night

[Darren Bown]

I'm surprised this page isn't more active. Tomorrow could see some very stormy conditions overnight.

[P-M]

10 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Not had chance to do a proper storm forecast for next few days, though have mentioned in my blog Brief Heatwave & Thunderstorms - What To Expect the potential for severe storms from the Midlands/S Wales nothward from late Tuesday through to late Wednesday before a surface cold front sweeps the very unstable, hot and humid air away eastward from the UK Wednesday night

Thanks Nick I am liking this forecast :-)

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

I'm surprised this page isn't more active. Tomorrow could see some very stormy conditions overnight.

We're all quietly waiting to see what forecasts will appear late today and tomorrow before we decide to embrace the excitement. Wise moves I feel!

I'm willing to travel if necessary, but I'm hoping, as we're in a decent spot here, it'll be only to get a better view of any storms that do reach here. A night-time storm will go down a treat tomorrow night!

Nick's forecast is encouraging, though very indicative of how widespread (and therefore unpredictable) the risk area is.

Many places at risk, only a few will cop it 

[William Grimsley]

Oh dear, I'm right on the edge of the low risk, looks like we'll see lots of Altocumulus Castellanus clouds overnight giving one or two thundery downpours before the main action starts through Devon, Wales and NW England overnight tomorrow.

Edited July 18, 2016 by William Grimsley

[richep]

Just now, William Grimsley said:

Oh dear, I'm right on the edge of the slight risk, looks like we'll see lots of Altocumulus Castellanus clouds overnight giving one or two thundery downpours before the main action starts through Devon, Wales and NW England overnight tomorrow.

bbc putting storms no where near us tomorrow night mate, just going to have to except we're not at risk this time around. Devon doesn't appear to be at risk at all

[William Grimsley]

4 minutes ago, richep said:

bbc putting storms no where near us tomorrow night mate, just going to have to except we're not at risk this time around. Devon doesn't appear to be at risk at all

There will be especially on Exmoor northwards, that's what I think anyway, very unlikely anywhere else though, except hopefully Newton Poppleford...

First signs of thunderstorms leaving Spain heading northwards...

Edited July 18, 2016 by William Grimsley

[richep]

I don't think anything this side of the Bristol channel, but you never know

[Supacell]

Well I have only gone and booked Wednesday off work so that I can chase or stay put, whatever is necessary to catch something. I will have my car and camera ready from 6pm tomorrow onwards

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

8 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Well I have only gone and booked Wednesday off work so that I can chase or stay put, whatever is necessary to catch something. I will have my car and camera ready from 6pm tomorrow onwards

 

All the best matey!! Gonna be a long night Tuesday that's for sure. An imminent all nighter I reckon. 

[Delka]

Why is the risk area so far North-West? I'm about 30 miles out of any area of the warnings on that map yet my forecast shows a 75% risk of storms for 2 hours on Wednesday afternoon then again 40% a bit later on.

[William Grimsley]

9 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

All the best matey!! Gonna be a long night Tuesday that's for sure. An imminent all nighter I reckon. 

I'd think most of the activity will be east of you guys, prepare to potentially chase.

I'm slightly worried if this turns into an all nighter, I've not witnessed an all nighter before and won't be able to if it doesn't occur here.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

I'd think most of the activity will be east of you guys, prepare to potentially chase.

I'm slightly worried if this turns into an all nighter, I've not witnessed an all nighter before and won't be able to if it doesn't occur here.

I meant as in not sleeping will, not the storm lasting all night lol, I wish. And yes I'm right on the edge of the slight risk area. 

[Daniel*]

19 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Does anyone hate the phrase used by the BBC "thundery showers" when we're seeing such extraodinary ingredients forecast?

Would you prefer widespread thundery supercells?  

I seem to recall back in 2013 there was a big 'firework display' in the wee hours, it can happen make no mistake! im not expecting anything one can hope, that great instability doesn't go too much to waste across UK.

Edited July 18, 2016 by Daniel*

[weather09]

12z Euro4 has focus of storms over N England and Scotland - first round over Scotland around 00z Weds, where shortwave trough and height falls destabilises environment - second round 03-06z from N Wales, transferring to northern parts of England during the morning hours, and then into Scotland toward midday, early afternoon. Obviously, not to be taken literally, and models do often have difficulty resolving where storms will break out with these types of setups.  

Think Supacell's made a wise choice though.  Nice trip up north should see him bag some supercells... 

Edited July 18, 2016 by weather09

[William Grimsley]

10 minutes ago, weather09 said:

12z Euro4 has focus of storms over N England and Scotland - first round over Scotland around 00z Weds, where shortwave trough and height falls destabilises environment - second round 03-06z from N Wales, transferring to northern parts of England during the morning hours, and then into Scotland toward midday, early afternoon. Obviously, not to be taken literally, and models do often have difficulty resolving where storms will break out with these types of setups.  

Think Supacell's made a wise choice though.  Nice trip up north should see him bag some supercells... 

Ya forgotten this little feature over Devon!

Edited July 18, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Guest]

53 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Well I have only gone and booked Wednesday off work so that I can chase or stay put, whatever is necessary to catch something. I will have my car and camera ready from 6pm tomorrow onwards

 

I'll be keeping a close eye on your movements tomorrow and Wednesday, Supacell 

 

I should clarify, I mean your storm-chasing movements 

[Ben Sainsbury]

57 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

There will be especially on Exmoor northwards, that's what I think anyway, very unlikely anywhere else though, except hopefully Newton Poppleford...

First signs of thunderstorms leaving Spain heading northwards...

What we must recognise is that these storms over Spain were not forecast by ESTOFEX, anything could happen!

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Would you prefer widespread thundery supercells?  

I seem to recall back in 2013 there was a big 'firework display' in the wee hours, it can happen make no mistake! im not expecting anything one can hope, that great instability doesn't go too much to waste across UK.

I'd prefer   "a few showers with the risk of embedded supercells and tornadoes in the heavier bursts.....

...and sunny spells too."

[Guest]

I'll add something useful now - Nick's latest blog post covering tomorrows heat and storm risk...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=7493;sess=

 

[richep]

4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

What we must recognise is that these storms over Spain were not forecast by ESTOFEX, anything could happen!

Their not thunderstorms though, are they ? No lightning detected down there

[cheese]

2 minutes ago, richep said:

Their not thunderstorms though, are they ? No lightning detected down there

No they're not thunderstorms, just cloud, presumably forming as the result of the hilly terrain in that area of Spain.

[Cableguy]

Watch it all shift South East(he says hopefully)

[Supacell]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I'll be keeping a close eye on your movements tomorrow and Wednesday, Supacell 

 

I should clarify, I mean your storm-chasing movements 

Haha, I would hope you wouldn't be overly interested in any other of my movements  

@weather09 I am thinking either a trip to NW England for the overnight period or maybe get some sleep for the first half of the night and then head up into N England for the early hours and into the early part of the day on Wednesday. Although to be honest, sleeping in 21c with a thunderstorm risk imminent is easier said than done.