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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds

Just to check folks, it's early days yet but it looks like this will be in an environment of substantial SRH with minimal (5-10kt) shear. Is it possible for severe storms to develop in this environment, or are we more looking at strong pulse storms?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Issued at:1028 on Mon 18 Jul 2016

Valid from:1700 on Tue 19 Jul 2016

Valid to:1800 on Wed 20 Jul 2016

Thunderstorms breaking out over parts of Northern Ireland later on Tuesday are expected to extend northeast to affect parts of Scotland overnight and into Wednesday morning. There is also potential for some severe thunderstorms to develop across Wales, northern England and the Midlands. Here, the risk is greatest during Wednesday, by which time the risk of storms will be reducing across the west of the yellow area - and then finally also reducing across the east of the area by Wednesday evening. Whilst most places will miss the worst, please be aware of the risk of flash flooding. Frequent lightning, large hail and strong winds could be additional hazards. All of this could lead to some flooding of homes, businesses and transport networks. Disruption to power is also possible.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Very warm, moist air spreading north and northeast across the western side of the UK is expected to produce thunderstorms later on Tuesday, then transfer eastwards during Wednesday. Rainfall will be very variable, and the extent of thunderstorms is uncertain, but some places could see around 30 mm in an hour and more than 50 mm in a few hours.

24451215.png

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1468882800&regionName=uk

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Now this looks very tasty for Tuesday night into Wednesday!

No way.png

I'll bank that please

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham
3 minutes ago, Davethedog said:

Just to check folks, it's early days yet but it looks like this will be in an environment of substantial SRH with minimal (5-10kt) shear. Is it possible for severe storms to develop in this environment, or are we more looking at strong pulse storms?

Deep layer shear environment will be supportive of multicell clusters/MCS (perhaps supercells with discrete activity) during period of interest. No reason to think otherwise. Short-lived 'pulse' storms not on the menu.  Storm development not dependent on shear, however shear profile gives you an indication of the potential severity and longevity of storms that do develop.  

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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

Southern England & East Anglia are out of the warning area.

It's very broad yellow area going right up to the northern isles of Scotland !!

A hard chase, because where are the storms going to be?

Maybe initial development in Wales, with storms moving NE

With no warning down South, i guess they expect it all to be home-grown storms then, no chance of Imports

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

This setup reminds me of a few years back, either '13 or '14? - I remember being on the bus to Poole, and I did a radar grab for one of our compadres on the Isle of Man. It was a very volatile situation then!

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

While this may appear like looking for hope where non exists for my neck of the woods, I am curious about the arrival of a jet streak over the SE during the early hours of Wednesday and whether this could offset the ridging here (c/f GFS). Currently yet to find a single model which is of the mind that it will increase the chances of any precipitation across the SE, but stranger things have happened....still though any risk I suspect remains at <10%

 

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent

Ah man, so typical. Stuck in the hottest part of the country which could really do with a storm or two to cool things down, yet all the action is further north!

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)

Metcheck going a bit bonkers but interesting to see they include the south west as well

Thunderstorm.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
12 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Does anyone hate the phrase used by the BBC "thundery showers" when we're seeing such extraodinary ingredients forecast?

Yes! It bugs me as much as when the media use "mini tornado" etc. I get it on a spring pulse storm like day when there's the odd crack of thunder, but not when there's a risk of severe thunderstorms. 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

It's too hot already.  25.1°C. GFS 6Z  interesting for  this afternoon. Tomorrow night showing 2100 J/kg CAPE with -8 LI for Holyhead where I will be. Even higher at home.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
1 hour ago, stevofunnelcl said:

Southern England & East Anglia are out of the warning area.

It's very broad yellow area going right up to the northern isles of Scotland !!

A hard chase, because where are the storms going to be?

Maybe initial development in Wales, with storms moving NE

With no warning down South, i guess they expect it all to be home-grown storms then, no chance of Imports

just to amend that..."with no warning down south, I guess they expect there to be absolutely no storms, hence no warning of any any colour" :wink:

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

if anything can get going east of the main risk, then it could be the most severe, the capping will no doubt be harder to break though, although if temperatures are being underestimated a degree or two, it could make a lot of difference. Northwest England up towards Newcastle area extending to SW Scotland at this stage look to be the most favoured areas. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
2 hours ago, Marcus_surfer said:

I'll bank that please

Seconded!! :bomb::yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
19 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

if anything can get going east of the main risk, then it could be the most severe, the capping will no doubt be harder to break though, although if temperatures are being underestimated a degree or two, it could make a lot of difference. Northwest England up towards Newcastle area extending to SW Scotland at this stage look to be the most favoured areas. 

Yes please matey!

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

Ok... I have to admit that I am currently speechless about how this is showing for my area over the next couple of days.:bomb::bomb::shok::yahoo:
Fasten your seat belts folks and lets hope this is a good 'un for all concerned, and remember to stay safe as well :good:

... And yes I will admit to cherry picking these charts :rolleyes:

ukcapeli (1).png

ukcapeli (2).png

ukcapeli (3).png

Edited by Dangerous55019
Typo
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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham
2 hours ago, weirpig said:

Whens the ESTOFEX  update come out?  and do we expect a level 2  for these shores?

Would imagine Estofex will indeed go with a level 2 tomorrow for Wales, N England, and Scotland, where all factors relevant for severe convective weather will coincide.  For here, best case scenario we might just scrape it lol. ECM and 00z GFS have slightly more veer to the winds aloft, but destabilisation really occurring over aforementioned regions, so.. Who knows.

Next few meso. model runs should be interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Just now, weather09 said:

Would imagine Estofex will indeed go with a level 2 tomorrow for Wales, N England, and Scotland, where all factors relevant for severe convective weather will coincide.  For here, best case scenario we might just scrape it lol. ECM and 00z GFS have slightly more veer to the winds aloft, but destabilisation really occurring over aforementioned regions, so.. Who knows.

Next few meso. model runs should be interesting.

I've liked this as it's informative, but it was a borderline like as you forgot to mention that that discrete supercells will fire in Wiltshire, more especially the Lyneham area....If you had said that, I would have created a dozen more user accounts and given it a dozen likes as well as encouraging all my friends to do the same :crazy: :laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
3 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Would imagine Estofex will indeed go with a level 2 tomorrow for Wales, N England, and Scotland, where all factors relevant for severe convective weather will coincide.  For here, best case scenario we might just scrape it lol. ECM and 00z GFS have slightly more veer to the winds aloft, but destabilisation really occurring over aforementioned regions, so.. Who knows.

Next few meso. model runs should be interesting.

Yep  i think we might get into the action  cape values are looking good for the majority of wales and middle  england   lets hope

ukcapeli.png

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Ben rich on BBC news just now hinting at storms moving into the Midlands on Wednesday. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 minute ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Ben rich on BBC news just now hinting at storms moving into the Midlands on Wednesday. :)

Brilliant costa.  El Brumo ??

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