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November 2005 opened with a very mild 10 days, with long draw southwesterlies - blow torch conditions, however, high pressure asserted itself mid month producing cold frosty conditions before a generally cold and quite wintry latter part with a classic long drawn northerly which delivered quite a bit of snow to the SW and Wales I seem to remember. Autumn 2005 on the whole though was very mild, with an exceptionally mild September and October. The change mid November was very notable and preceded a very dry consistently chilly winter with high pressure ruling the roost. I remember the long term weather forecasts in Autumn 2005 calling for a cold winter based on a predicted negative NAO pattern.

Back to this coming autumn, will we see an active hurricane season, its been a long time since we did..

Thanks for charts above - worth comparing to say early September, which you will find has delivered many settled periods in recent years..

Edited by damianslaw
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One of the sights that greeted me this morning  I think its safe to say that we are now starting to enter the part of the year when the autumn colours peak  So my advice is to everyone, if you're

Newsflash: Different people have different weather preferences. Snidey comments towards people who have a different viewpoint to yours are not welcome.

EC seasonal has been updated. October is shown as settled with high pressure dominated, while November has a significant northern blocking scenario. Interestingly, it maintains some degree of northern

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24 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

 

Thanks for charts above - worth comparing to say early September, which you will find has delivered many settled periods in recent years..

Indeed, the first week can often be settled. The 10th is frequently the turning point. In the hotter years it often brought about a thundery breakdown (2004, 2005 and 2006 come to mind). In the non-hot years e.g. 2012, it brought in the Atlantic in full swing. That's why I always take people's views of September as a settled month with a pinch of salt. 

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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

November 2005 opened with a very mild 10 days, with long draw southwesterlies - blow torch conditions, however, high pressure asserted itself mid month producing cold frosty conditions before a generally cold and quite wintry latter part with a classic long drawn northerly which delivered quite a bit of snow to the SW and Wales I seem to remember. Autumn 2005 on the whole though was very mild, with an exceptionally mild September and October. The change mid November was very notable and preceded a very dry consistently chilly winter with high pressure ruling the roost. I remember the long term weather forecasts in Autumn 2005 calling for a cold winter based on a predicted negative NAO pattern.

Back to this coming autumn, will we see an active hurricane season, its been a long time since we did..

Thanks for charts above - worth comparing to say early September, which you will find has delivered many settled periods in recent years..

An interesting point regarding 'active hurricane season'

Global models some 10 years ago were  predicting, that we should expect to see , more hurricanes, and there severity increasing due to  increased sst, , I wonder what other factor is overriding this forecast?

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A sure sign Autumn is on the way, sycamore trees beginning to    turn.  Also picked a shed load of blackberries at the weekend.  It was also feeling particularly cool this morning walking to work.  Autumn is not far away!!

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John Hammond just announced that snow fell today on the Scottish peaks. After the initial momentary jaw drop at this revelation, I remembered that September and with it Autumn is fast approaching.

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That sense of Autumn's approach is unmistakable now. You feel it in your bones. The ever more apparent shortening of the days, you suddenly realise how dark it is by 9pm compared with a few weeks ago. The blackberries are almost ripe now, and the acorns, hazelnuts are growing at a good rate. Then you look at the trees and notice that some leaves are showing signs of turning. Those trees that are still fully green now have that tired late summer almost dirty green look to them in comparison to the fresh bright green colour they had at the beginning of summer. The same goes for the vegetation, that decaying tired worn out fag end of summer look.

Yes Autumn is definately beginning the process of preparing itself to carry out the yearly ritual of kicking the unreliable and treacherous British summer out on its abcdefg.

 

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Yes, trees will often 'turn' due to stress or disease. Trees do not change colour in August for any other reason - it is far too early in the year for that. Even in September you don't see many trees changing colour.

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1 hour ago, Nick L said:

The ECM seasonal model has September being high pressure dominated for the UK.

It will probably verify to spite us, that said September anticyclonic spells seem to be very frequent in recent Septembers, even last year which was a cool month we saw high pressure over us giving pleasant days and chilly nights, of course if it was mid-summer the same set up would have brought very warm weather to most of the UK.

It really feels like a trend recently to have relatively mediocre/poor summers followed by a lot of UK/Euro based highs during the following Autumn.

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1 hour ago, Nick L said:

The ECM seasonal model has September being high pressure dominated for the UK.

Pleasant if so? Might get some seasonal frost and fog, with some welcome sunshine. 3 months too late though!

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39 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

It will probably verify to spite us, that said September anticyclonic spells seem to be very frequent in recent Septembers, even last year which was a cool month we saw high pressure over us giving pleasant days and chilly nights, of course if it was mid-summer the same set up would have brought very warm weather to most of the UK.

It really feels like a trend recently to have relatively mediocre/poor summers followed by a lot of UK/Euro based highs during the following Autumn.

Indeed - but what's the reason behind this? Seems bizarre to me. People look forward to autumn but then we get 20s into October.. lol. 

Edited by cheese
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45 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

It will probably verify to spite us, that said September anticyclonic spells seem to be very frequent in recent Septembers, even last year which was a cool month we saw high pressure over us giving pleasant days and chilly nights, of course if it was mid-summer the same set up would have brought very warm weather to most of the UK.

It really feels like a trend recently to have relatively mediocre/poor summers followed by a lot of UK/Euro based highs during the following Autumn.

On that tune i took a look at analogues for the Autumn in my opinion and they went for a cool and unsettled September but mild and anticyclonic October with a cooler but settled November. 

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On 8/8/2016 at 21:56, Dangerous55019 said:

I see that Gavs Weather Vids have done part two of the Autumn 2016 Analogues... This looks at autumns where we have gone from El Nino to Enso neutral... And the one trend that sticks out, id the fact that there isn't really a trend!! :unknw:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/
 

 

Looking now at the pattern of sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, these are up to 2C colder than normal off South America and in the interior Pacific. The North Atlantic off West Africa is also cooler than normal (significantly so) as is much of the North Pacific between 20 and 30N. Exceptionally few hurricanes and typhoons this year, and major baroclinic zones in the far north Atlantic likely to be shifted to the fringes of the Arctic. Looks to be like a drier than normal set-up but near normal temperatures.

Edited by iapennell
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Interesting development with North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomaly. Large area of the Norwegian Sea up to 2C colder than the seasonal norm and waters west of UK slightly colder than normal, NW Atlantic very warm and cooler than normal waters off West Africa. Less hurricane activity and high-pressure north of the UK are increased by this set-up assuming, of course, this holds into the autumn. Link here:

sst_anom.gif  Gavin's recent suggestion (see above) of a drier autumn could well play out.

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A warm, settled September and October would be great. By November it becomes very hard to get any kind of pleasant, usable weather so I am not fussed, as long as it doesn't rain too much.

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2 hours ago, cheese said:

A warm, settled September and October would be great. By November it becomes very hard to get any kind of pleasant, usable weather so I am not fussed, as long as it doesn't rain too much.

Have to agree with you there, any extension of sunshine and warm temps is always a good thing, though usable passing rain welcome too. By November I'd like to see some frosts and freezing fog. Always nice if Halloween and Bonfire night are not wet/windy. 

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3 hours ago, iapennell said:

Interesting development with North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomaly. Large area of the Norwegian Sea up to 2C colder than the seasonal norm and waters west of UK slightly colder than normal, NW Atlantic very warm and cooler than normal waters off West Africa. Less hurricane activity and high-pressure north of the UK are increased by this set-up assuming, of course, this holds into the autumn. Link here:

sst_anom.gif  Gavin's recent suggestion (see above) of a drier autumn could well play out.

Interestingly the cold tropical anomolies in the west Atlantic seem to have had little effect so far, the number of waves rolling off Africa have been no less strong or in number than usual. The problem is over the main development region and that's probably more caused by the fact that until now we've been maintaining westerlies in 1.2 which tends to strengthen shear in the Atlantic. 

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On 11/08/2016 at 11:57, cheese said:

Yes, trees will often 'turn' due to stress or disease. Trees do not change colour in August for any other reason - it is far too early in the year for that. Even in September you don't see many trees changing colour.

I see the same trees starting to turn in August every year, regardless of the weather and nothing to do with disease, then descending into their full autumn plumage during September. Some trees are earlier than others in this regard and that's a fact. Some will shed in September and others (like the oak) will not shed fully until November. You'll find many of the UK native trees will hold onto their leaves for longer than some of the non native varieties, most likely due to the non native varieties being more susceptible to changes in light levels.

Edited by CreweCold
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Everything's still green and summery here tree wise as it usually is well into September at least. Sure there might be the isolated branch/tree showing colour if look but that's normal and I don't take that to mean Autumn is arriving or a significant sign of Autumn really. 

I just hope we don't get a bland Autumn like last year was here (and some other seasons recently), i.e getting progressively more above average, vastly reducing our (already low) seasonal temperature decline, some anticyclonic gloom and lots of SW winds and cloud around high pressure to the south/SE but little of interest weather wise.

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On 11/08/2016 at 11:50, Nick L said:

I think the trees are turning because of the lack of rain more than anything.

Absolutely. Lack of rain contributes to "false Autumns" around this time of year, and funnily enough, the IoW has been pretty darn dry.

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