autumn Autumn 2016

[AderynCoch]

6C and drizzly this afternoon with a cold wind. Snow expected down to 700m. First air frost expected tonight.

It's hardly stopped raining since Sunday evening.

Edited October 5, 2016 by AderynCoch

[Delka]

I personally love all the different weather sorts you get in Autumn because the variety is great! Unfortunately so far the past month here has been above average with very little in the way of rain.. We only had one day where it rained more then 3 hours and that was 10th September. Im looking forward to the weather finally chilling down aswell because the first few frosts always excite me!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Strong SE breeze today. The next few days are looking very 'seasonal' for night time minima, 4-6c if we're lucky

[jules216]

1 hour ago, AderynCoch said:

6C and drizzly this afternoon with a cold wind. Snow expected down to 700m. First air frost expected tonight.

It's hardly stopped raining since Sunday evening.

http://www.vt.sk/hory/letna-dovolenka/webkamery/strbske-pleso-1386-mnm/

 

Winter arrived in Strbske Pleso resort, my favourite in lovely home land, wife already complaining it was plus 25 last week and expected to snow tonight, she lived about 60km south of Tatra Mountains, that is just crazy difference in one week

 

[Summer Sun]

@bbcweather

September stats from Met Office show it was the equal-second warmest for the UK since records began in 1910. Jo

[Summer Sun]

 

[summer blizzard]

The models show what a good situation we are in as we head towards mid and late October. By day 10 our choice is the status-quo from the Euro (perhaps with a more cyclonic influence) or retrogression from the GFS6z. It's like been asked whether i want my cake now or icing on it. 

[Snowyowl9]

I could live with easterly all of autumn looks stunning seeing the current charts,great weather this week.

[Cheshire Freeze]

55 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

The models show what a good situation we are in as we head towards mid and late October. By day 10 our choice is the status-quo from the Euro (perhaps with a more cyclonic influence) or retrogression from the GFS6z. It's like been asked whether i want my cake now or icing on it. 

The main difference to this time last year...the high is showing retrogressive tendencies rather than being shunted down to the Balkans....

[Guest]

Nice persistent high, shame they prefer to appear in the middle of Spring or Autumn instead of January.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, BREIFMAN11 said:

Nice persistent high, shame they prefer to appear in the middle of Spring or Autumn instead of January.

they will do, no raging jet or PV, I tend to think 0ctober, Apr and May are the most easterly months, and by miles most westerly months Nov to Feb

[Walsall Wood Snow]

On 15/09/2016 at 11:38, Gael_Force said:

 

Being as this October appears to be shaping up to be on the cool side, I wonder whether we'll end up getting some early season snowfall, such as happened in 2008 and (for some areas though not here) 2012. Probably not of course but it does feel like it's heading more towards that direction than a lot of October's in recent years.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Sorry if it's trolling, but I still want warmth, and looking for warmth on models, it's 0ct, cold is useless in my location until late Nov, so let's have the southerlies and 20° for now, feel way better

[MP-R]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

they will do, no raging jet or PV, I tend to think 0ctober, Apr and May are the most easterly months, and by miles most westerly months Nov to Feb

LOL! Now I've read it all!

[markyo]

Last of the double digit nights for a while, looks like i can turn the bedroom aircon off!!  ....just have to keep the 2 fans going instead

[Summer Sun]

[summer blizzard]

I'd not be too concerned about a return to zonality since it's still too early to really benefit from anything but a strong northerly. The important thing for me before mid-November is that the Jet does not have mild south westerlies piling into western Russia and hopefully can keep an atypical polar vortex.

I would still prefer high pressure over/near us but what i'm saying is not to freak out just because we get a bit of wind and rain.

[SMU]

Updated AO ensembles

yes thats a run sub -6 in there

S

This is significant !!

Edited October 7, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Coopsy]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated AO ensembles

yes thats a run sub -6 in there

S

This is significant !!

The !! are out - this sh1 t is getting serious ;-)

[stewfox]

Isn't the correlation with -ve AO and cold winters (more blocking) weak ?

Arctic Oscillation time series for the extended (DJFM) winter season 1899–2011

Arctic_Oscillation.svg

Edited October 7, 2016 by stewfox

[SMU]

^^ look at the 2 most negative Octs - 2009 & 2012 - then look at the following winterS AO

the following 2 most negative OCTs ( at a glance )

2002 is third-

from the above 3 winters out of 9 months these were the AOs ranked

-4.2

-3.6

-2.5

-1.7

-1.6

-1.0

-0.6

-0.4

+0.1

thats 8/9 

plus mar 2013 was - 3.18

october 1979 was the only other close year.

2016 on track to smash the -AO record.

 

 

 

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

best chart of GFS 12Z, possibly warmer/sunnier air moving in? long way off though, probably end up with a damp, miserable NE'ly and 10 °

[AderynCoch]

Malá Fatra range today:

Edited October 7, 2016 by AderynCoch

[summer blizzard]

6 hours ago, stewfox said:

Isn't the correlation with -ve AO and cold winters (more blocking) weak ?

Arctic Oscillation time series for the extended (DJFM) winter season 1899–2011

Arctic_Oscillation.svg

My analysis of the October AO values below -1 and the following winter months found that about 60% of the winter months saw more than a 1C departure from average.. however that was evenly split between mild (2006/2007) and cold (2009/2010). 

 

Edited October 7, 2016 by summer blizzard

[lassie23]

Whispers of a possible arctic plunge in the last week of October