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1 hour ago, sundog said:

True but I didn't know where to put it and it's too early for a winter thread.

The QBO Westerly Phase seems, on the whole to have ended and along with Lá Nina in the equatorial Pacific this would point to a colder winter over Britain, other things being equal. However, it really is too early to even make a stab at predicting what the winter will be from six months out as any number of the variables upon which one bases the predictions can change a lot in a month let alone the next six! A massive Mid-Ocean Ridge volcanic eruption in the North Atlantic south of Iceland could pump so much lava out that it warms the entire area of the North Atlantic by 2 to 3C or a series of hurricanes battering the US East Coast could bring enough warm southerly winds over much of the North Atlantic to warm the surface by a similar amount before then: This would significantly alter the outlook for the winter!

I have a reasonable grasp of meteorology, but I would not want to make a winter prediction any time soon!

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23 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

It seems summer weather can often arrive in September/October. Here's a reminder of last year. Much better than the summer itself.

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Morning Matthew :)
Clear sunny days, (hopefully) cool clear nights, along with possibly misty starts (and ends) to the days, heavy dews on the grass... I've always said that the light in September/October is like no other time of year... I'm getting all misty and dewy eyed thinking about it :D
Lets hope autumn 2016 can deliver where this sad excuse for a summer has failed :good:

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20 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Morning Matthew :)
Clear sunny days, (hopefully) cool clear nights, along with possibly misty starts (and ends) to the days, heavy dews on the grass... I've always said that the light in September/October is like no other time of year... I'm getting all misty and dewy eyed thinking about it :D
Lets hope autumn 2016 can deliver where this sad excuse for a summer has failed :good:

Morning Dangerous:) yes I can't wait for a good anti cyclonic spell. This summer has been poor for sunshine and the general pattern looks continuing the cloudy theme into August. Can't wait for a pattern change with a blocking high. Yes misty starts too:D

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9 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Morning Dangerous:) yes I can't wait for a good anti cyclonic spell. This summer has been poor for sunshine and the general pattern looks continuing the cloudy theme into August. Can't wait for a pattern change with a blocking high. Yes misty starts too:D

A blocking high in autumn is a big yes from me :good:
Sadly most people always see autumn as wind and rain, but personally I always see it as the Keatsian season of mists and mellow fruitfulness :D
The wind and rain can be kept for the business end of the seaosn... November... Along with the first proper fogs as well. If its gonna be grey, then let it be foggy, as it least the fog is atmospheric :D

Chasing Fog (3).jpg

Chasing Fog (2).jpg

Chasing Fog (1).jpg

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3 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Just found the first Daddy Longlegs in the house this morning, always a sign of the coming season :)

Yes we have them too. I've noticed the blackberries are out and some are already ripe sure signs that Autumn is near which I love.

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48 minutes ago, snowtimenow said:

Yes we have them too. I've noticed the blackberries are out and some are already ripe sure signs that Autumn is near which I love.

Same here Snowtime. :friends:
Autumn is the best season of the year... In my opinion :D

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I see that Gavs Weather Vids have done another part towards the autumn 2016 forecast - Autumn 2016 Analogues (Part One) :good:
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/
 

So far, and after viewing this I'd say toss a coin and shout heads and tails as to eventual outcome... But Gavin appears to be starting to side with the idea of high(er) pressure dominating this coming autumn... Fine by me :good:

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Autumn rarely seems to get going until late September recently, with the first part of Sept delivering on average our most settled conditions of the year it seems, with temps in the high teens and lots of sunny dry weather, its for this reason I don't tend to start thinking about it until later on in August. Would like a cold settled end to the season, something which has eluded these parts in recent years, indeed the last 3 autumns have seen very wet very stormy ends to autumn, only 2010 and 2012 have delivered colder quieter conditions. Would like an autumn like 2008, 2010 and 2012, which were quite traditional with plenty of frosty mornings, chilly anticylonic conditions at times, some fog, and nothing too wet or stormy. Please no repeat of autumn 2009, 2013 or 2015 especially last year, November 2015 lay the foundations for the disasterous flooding we endured in December.

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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Autumn rarely seems to get going until late September recently, with the first part of Sept delivering on average our most settled conditions of the year it seems, with temps in the high teens and lots of sunny dry weather, its for this reason I don't tend to start thinking about it until later on in August. Would like a cold settled end to the season, something which has eluded these parts in recent years, indeed the last 3 autumns have seen very wet very stormy ends to autumn, only 2010 and 2012 have delivered colder quieter conditions. Would like an autumn like 2008, 2010 and 2012, which were quite traditional with plenty of frosty mornings, chilly anticylonic conditions at times, some fog, and nothing too wet or stormy. Please no repeat of autumn 2009, 2013 or 2015 especially last year, November 2015 lay the foundations for the disasterous flooding we endured in December.

Evening Damianslaw :)
You could have added autumn 2011 to that list as well, very dull, just the odd sunny day and mild... Very mild/hot if you include the heatwave at the end of September early October.
I fully agree with you, autumn 2013 started very late (no doubt due to the cold spring that year) but it did eventually give some very stunning colours on the tree around these parts... But that didn't arrive till November... And autumn last year started off well, but started to turn into a bit of a gloomfest from October onwards (albeit with a few good foggy days at the start of the month and around Halloween)... To some extent I feel as though we are still suffering with that gloomfest that started last October!! :nonono:
Although I'll be honest I can't really remember much about 2009's autumn without consulting my weather records. 
2008 was a nice autumn, sadly I only recall bits of autumn 2010 due to not being very well, but I do recall a sunny start to September, a 'few' overcast days in October, and a strong wind storm in November, but thats about it for that year... And the cold twist in its tail obviously :)
Autumn 2012 on the other hand was a nice little autumn :)
I remember September that year very well, one weekend I was at the Duxford airshow, and that day was like a summers day, I even got sun burnt!! Lol 
The weekend after there was a noticeable change to more seasonal conditions, it was like the dying breaths of summer, albeit sunny, and the weekend after that I remeber having to scrape the frost off my car!! :D
I seem to remember October being a very pleasant autumn month that year as well, with many sunny days, cool(ish) nights with that dampness and that wonderful autumn smell :D
If this autumn is like 2012 then I certainly won't complain :D

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Ok... I hope nobody minds me doing this (please accept my apologies if you do), but being as I've just been thinking about the autumn that we had back in 2012 (and getting all misty and dewy eyed in the process), I've just dug out some of the photos that I took back in autumn 2012.
Autumn 2012 gave us an absolutely stunning display of autumn colours here in Wales, along with sunny days, and a few misty ones as well :D
And hopefully these photos will give people an idea of whey personally I've love to see a repeat of autumn that year :good:
I should also point out that none of these photos have been edited in anyway, these are as they are (or were), straight from the camera. 
 

Autumn Gold 2012 (1).jpg

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Autumn Gold 2012 (4).jpg

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Autumn Gold 2012 (9).jpg

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We are, it seems, well over the active phase of Schwabe Cycle 24 (current sunspot cycle) and it seems that the westerly-wind phase of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation has come to an end. Easterlies now dominate a large part of the stratosphere over the Equator (see here): http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/

These factors point more towards a drier early autumn period over much of Britain, particularly given colder-than-usual waters in the mid NE Atlantic and the exceptionally-retreated extent of Arctic Ice. Colder than normal seas west of Britain encourage anticyclonic curvature in the upper Westerlies whilst the easterlies above the Equator and also the start of a weak La Niná ought to encourage weaker Westerlies reaching Britain and this ought to mean high-pressure conditions for much of the country.

However, the sub-arctic; the Davis Straight, Norwegian Sea, waters around Alaska and also around Iceland are warmer than normal by up to 3C (or more in places) and this, with the reduced ice-cover further north (over which middle-troposphere atmosphere thicknesses will plunge in autumn as the atmosphere cools) will encourage deep depressions to race east on the fringes of the Arctic with strong westerlies on their southern flanks. This is likely to encourage strong westerlies over Scotland and the far north of England with frequent spells of rain, particularly from late September onwards and from mid-October onwards unsettled conditions will (probably) spread to the whole country. With colder seas than normal to the west and with the prevailing wind in September-October likely to be westerly (rather than south-westerly); that flags up the likelihood of colder north-westerlies bringing sub-arctic air to Britain bringing early snowfalls to the Scottish hills and (with clear skies in any ridge following such north-westerlies) a couple of night frosts occurring before the end of October.

The possible unknown is the likely frequency of hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic and typhoons in the tropical North Pacific by the time we reach September: Sea surface temperatures in the relevant areas are 1 to 2C above average now and frequent tropical storm activity is correlated with wetter but milder conditions from October onwards over Britain. There is also an increased chance of real late-season heat around late September if the North Atlantic hurricane season proves especially active. Frequent hurricanes and typhoons effectively intensify the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) along which embryonic tropical storms move westwards like pearls on a string. The resultant increase in the strength of tropical easterlies to the north increases the need for Westerlies in higher latitudes to satisfy Conservation of Angular Momentum laws.

So yes, my money is (tentatively) on most of England and Wales enjoying a dry September with some warm sunny days but some chilly nights also; but whether such conditions persist through October too and whether Scotland shares in the sunny Indian Summer to any extent is rather dependent on hurricane activity (or the lack of it) much much further south. I expect western Scotland to be wetter than normal during autumn 2016 in any case because even if it is dry in September there (which I doubt very much) the strong westerlies in the sub-arctic will extend southwards so that October-November will be very wet indeed. When seas are warm at high latitudes and Arctic ice is at reduced seasonal extent the main baroclinic zones shift to high latitudes and when Westerlies shift to higher latitudes accordingly they blow closer to the axis of the Earth's rotation and have to blow harder to counter the effects of tropical easterlies (particularly if those easterlies are strengthened by ITCZ-hugging hurricanes and typhoons). This is hardly likely to be conducive to a great big high setting up over Iceland and Scandinavia to bring cold north-easterlies with lots of frosts at night with cold sunny days over Scotland this autumn.

I speak as one who likes that sort of crisp frosty weather in October (the trees get some fantastic colours when that happens); but lets face it- for those of us who line north of the line running from Preston to Teesside rainy strong Westerlies at 10 to 15C are going to be much more frequent than clear nights below 0C in either October or November (unless, of course, you live on Cairngorm Summit)!   

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10 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

Is it true that in the 70's and 80's we used to have frosts in September?

 

Where I live near Nenthead, high up in the North Pennines, we used to get air frosts in August. The last time that happened was in 1999!

Certainly frost used to be more frequent (and more severe) in autumns gone by. I have recorded -3C in late September in 1995 and in October I have recorded -8C (in 1983 and 1993). However in the last 13 years I have recorded nothing below -3C in October and there have been seasons where not a single air-frost has occurred until November. That would have been unthinkable at over 400 metres up in the North Pennines at one time. We also used to have early snowfalls, there was an October evening in the mid 1970s (1974, I believe) when my parents rushed out to get the cows in on our farm (where I still live) because it was snowing hard and the poor cows had four inches of thick snow on their backs!! Yes, this was mid-October! We have now had no October snowfall for eight years. At another extreme we also used to get more severe gales- in early autumn. We would get gales in August and September and severe ones too,- on 27th September 1982 a really severe gale uprooted a tree in the little paddock nest to our home- severe gales are now rare before November.

The autumn storm tracks have shifted northwards to the Arctic and though the westerlies associated with them have become a bit stronger they miss all but NW Scotland until late in the autumn- so we don't get the autumnal equinox gales we once did. Instead these Westerlies- to the north- form a barrier preventing the penetration of very cold Arctic air over Britain for most of the autumn. Also the Arctic has also become a bit less cold in recent autumns.  All of which means less early snowfalls and less early sharp frosts. I suspect that a similar theme will unfold this autumn too.

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Locally I can only find one year in the past 40 years to have air frost in September, back in the 1980s - and that was at Church Fenton. At the now-closed Leeds Weather Centre, there was never an air frost from May to September, and only air frost in October and April infrequently. That's the urban heat island at work though.

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Personally I'd like to see a warm, settled August - something more akin to what the month used to be. Then, a continuation of the settled conditions into September before turning more unsettled as the autumn wears on. I'd like the most unsettled period to be mid October to mid November, then the end of autumn to be colder and drier with frosts and fog. Something not too dissimilar to 2005, which also had the bonus of snow at the end of November.

However, as autumn is my least favourite season for weather, the most important thing for me now is a nice August. The first half of August last year was lovely but it went downhill in the second half (apart from the plume on the 22nd).

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Nov 05 is perhaps the best November as a whole (obviously 2010 had an utterly brilliant end). As soon as the cold front passed on the 7th, it was frigid, frosty and stupidly sunny for the rest of the month.

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58 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Personally I'd like to see a warm, settled August - something more akin to what the month used to be. Then, a continuation of the settled conditions into September before turning more unsettled as the autumn wears on. I'd like the most unsettled period to be mid October to mid November, then the end of autumn to be colder and drier with frosts and fog. Something not too dissimilar to 2005, which also had the bonus of snow at the end of November.

However, as autumn is my least favourite season for weather, the most important thing for me now is a nice August. The first half of August last year was lovely but it went downhill in the second half (apart from the plume on the 22nd).

August 2005 was the last time we had an August that have average or above average sun.  It also had average temps, and was a fairly good month by the standards of August today.  

The month is supposed to be a copy of July, yet over the past decade it's been more like a warm June or September.  I think this year we will finally have a normal August, and a warm and sunny September (and that will make up for the awful June).

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Latest 3 monthly outlook from WSI as we leave summer and move into Autumn

Quote

Cooler/Wetter Spells of Weather Expected Again Across UK and Western Europe

Andover, MA

For the aggregate August-October period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business is forecasting below-normal temperatures across the UK and parts of northwestern mainland Europe, with above-normal temperatures across the rest of Europe.

“As with many recent summers during the past decade, North Atlantic blocking has become the dominant player again as we get into the heart of the season,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, Chief Meteorologist, The Weather Company. “While the cool-west, warm-east pattern has become the preferred pattern going forward this summer, warmer Northeast Atlantic ocean temperatures and the excess global heat left over from the historically-strong El Nino event have meant that even western Europe has been slightly warmer and drier than we originally expected.”

For the August to October 2016 time period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following conditions:

August:

Nordic Region*- Warmer than normal, except coastal Norway

UK* - Cooler than normal

Northern Mainland* - Warmer than normal, except northern France

Southern Mainland* - Warmer than normal

September:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal, except southern Norway

UK - Cooler than normal

Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal, except northwestern France

Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal

October:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Cooler than normal

Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal, except northern France & western Germany

Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal

https://business.weather.com/news/uk-seasonal-outlook-big-late-summer-heat-confined-to-eastern-europe

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7 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Nov 05 is perhaps the best November as a whole (obviously 2010 had an utterly brilliant end). As soon as the cold front passed on the 7th, it was frigid, frosty and stupidly sunny for the rest of the month.

Nov '96 for me!

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