autumn Autumn 2016

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

For temperatures to be breaking a daily record by 3/4c, yes, that's most definitely exceptional.

I would say so, Nick - even I'm not old enough to remember that last time 31C was exceeded in September, as I was only 4! Maybe JH, PM or Knocker can remember it? 1961?

[Gael_Force]

7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

For temperatures to be breaking a daily record by 3/4c, yes, that's most definitely exceptional.

I know what you are saying but I mean in the overall context of the month rather than the happenstance of a synoptic pattern on a particular calender day. IE plenty of later September days with figures of 30c and even above.

[cheese]

11 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I know what you are saying but I mean in the overall context of the month rather than the happenstance of a synoptic pattern on a particular calender day. IE plenty of later September days with figures of 30c and even above.

Yes, but you seem to think other, more exceptional spells of weather renders the upcoming spell of weather not exceptional at all. Using that logic, March 2013 was not exceptional because 12 other March's are colder. 

 

[Gael_Force]

13 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yes, but you seem to think other, more exceptional spells of weather renders the upcoming spell of weather not exceptional at all. Using that logic, March 2013 was not exceptional because 12 other March's are colder. 

 

I'm probably not expressing myself very well. March 2013 was exceptional for longevity and depth of cold. My difficulty is comparing dates in the one month and saying something is exceptional because it surpasses previous date record. That is a calender quirk in how the synoptics fall ... some months that are average can hide exceptional periods of both hot and cool. If this plume was happening 4 or 5 days later it might be struggling to beat the date record.

[Methuselah]

23 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I know what you are saying but I mean in the overall context of the month rather than the happenstance of a synoptic pattern on a particular calender day. IE plenty of later September days with figures of 30c and even above.

Are we quibbling over the dictionagraphical definition of 'exceptional' here?

I was living in the NW Highlands in 1995, when Altnahara recorded -27.2C; and I was here in Beccles when last July's temperature - albeit for only one day - smashed the all-time record for that month...IMO, temperatures such as these are 'exceptional', in that I doubt I'll see either exceeded in my lifetime...

And I suspect that you won't, either?

[Gael_Force]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Are we quibbling over the dictionagraphical definition of 'exceptional' here?

I was living in the NW Highlands in 1995, when Altnahara recorded -27.2C; and I was here in Beccles when last July's temperature - albeit for only one day - smashed the all-time record for that month...IMO, temperatures such as these are 'exceptional', in that I doubt I'll see either exceeded in my lifetime...

And I suspect that you won't, either?

Statistically, as a male, I don't have long to go. 

If you see my last reply, the quibble is in comparing date records.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Statistically, as a male, I don't have long to go. 

If you see my last reply, the quibble is in comparing date records.

I know what you're saying, Gael...But what's the difference - apart from scale - between date records and month records? If you get what I mean!

[Mapantz]

25.6°C to beat, for my location. 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Got to say I'm finding this September's heat potential fascinating. Although it's considered a meteorological Autumn month in all honestly it's barely that really anyway. Though I would be disappointed if October was as above average temperature wise as that's when Autumn really gets going in this country really. I suppose this September is the early Autumn equivalent of March 2013 when Winter held on in early Spring and intensified. Bear in mind we actually had an ok Summer that year, so in that context maybe we'll have an ok Winter (cold wise) later. Here's hoping.

[Jackfrost]

I hate to be a negative nelly but this exceptional burst of heat only adds fuel to my fear that we're in for another mild winter, perhaps to a much greater, possibly record-breaking, degree than the last three. The fact that all three Summer months were above average to some degree despite constant complaints of how cool and underwhelming the weather was shows how our perceptions of what constitutes warmth have quickly changed. The cluster of cold winters between 2008-13 seems to have ended and the scientific proof of a rapidly warming world, especially since the end of Europe's cold winter cluster, suggests that the odds are stacked against anyone with high expectations of a notably cold winter.

That's not to say that cold outbreaks and snowfalls are not possible in the mildest of winters - I still remember fondly the frosty, foggy spell before Christmas 2006 and the two successive days of heavy snow in February 2007 - but I suspect that mild and possibly wet weather will be the overarching theme of this upcoming Winter. Also, while I suspect that this kind of thinking is not popular on a forum like this, I struggle to find much joy in a UK cold spell in the knowledge that the planet as a whole is warming at a frightening speed while multiple species hurdle towards extinction.

That said, I still love Winter whatever the weather. Here in the west, there's a certain charm to watching the weather rolling in fresh from the Atlantic, the howling wind and dark nights. It really does take snow and low temperatures to make it special, though. Come back, December 2010. The minus double-digit temperatures, humongous icicles, Christmas lights and perfectly still and silent nights that followed the 40 cm snowfall of the 17th was the most beautiful I've ever seen this country.

(Looking back, this post might have been better suited to the climate change forum, so feel free to move if that is so).

Edited September 12, 2016 by Jackfrost

[Frost HoIIow]

43 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

I hate to be a negative nelly but this exceptional burst of heat only adds fuel to my fear that we're in for another mild winter, perhaps to a much greater, possibly record-breaking, degree than the last three. The fact that all three Summer months were above average to some degree despite constant complaints of how cool and underwhelming the weather was shows how our perceptions of what constitutes warmth have quickly changed. The cluster of cold winters between 2008-13 seems to have ended and the scientific proof of a rapidly warming world, especially since the end of Europe's cold winter cluster, suggests that the odds are stacked against anyone with high expectations of a notably cold winter.

That's not to say that cold outbreaks and snowfalls are not possible in the mildest of winters - I still remember fondly the frosty, foggy spell before Christmas 2006 and the two successive days of heavy snow in February 2007 - but I suspect that mild and possibly wet weather will be the overarching theme of this upcoming Winter. Also, while I suspect that this kind of thinking is not popular on a forum like this, I struggle to find much joy in a UK cold spell in the knowledge that the planet as a whole is warming at a frightening speed while multiple species hurdle towards extinction.

That said, I still love Winter whatever the weather. Here in the west, there's a certain charm to watching the weather rolling in fresh from the Atlantic, the howling wind and dark nights. It really does take snow and low temperatures to make it special, though. Come back, December 2010. The minus double-digit temperatures, humongous icicles, Christmas lights and perfectly still and silent nights that followed the 40 cm snowfall of the 17th was the most beautiful I've ever seen this country.

(Looking back, this post might have been better suited to the climate change forum, so feel free to move if that is so).

Well most years you won't go far wrong with that prediction. I'm 66 years old and unfortunately there have been far more mild Winters than cold ones. It's where we are situated that is problem, an island too far west in Europe with an Atlantic ocean/gulf stream that moderates our Winter temps immensely. It's just when we do get cold Winters it makes it even more special.

I've seen some incredible cold and very snowy ones but an awful lot of horrible mild ones too. I have never known a completely snowless Winter where I am between 1st Dec and 28th Feb. But Winter 2013-2014 was the poorest with only a dusting one evening in February 2014 that was gone by the time I got up the next morning, I hope I never see a "Winter" like that again.

It does seem like we have entered a milder phase after the cold Winter and Spring of 2013. Had a very good covering of snow earlier this year in March but it wasn't part of a sustained cold spell nor was it in Winter either. I try to not get my hopes up too much for Winter as it generally ends up rather mediocre. Even now approaching the latter end of my life I still love snow and cold, there's something incredible about it - looking out the window every 10 mins to see what has fallen, looking up seeing the trillions of flakes coming down, the crunchiness under foot, how it transforms surfaces into white, watch out for yellow snow though!  How anyone can like rain and a mild Winter over a snowy cold one is beyond me.

[cheese]

Well what do you know.. GFS now shows very warm/hot weather for Thursday. 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Roll on Friday. I hate these 'unseasonable' hot spells

[Summer Sun]

It'll be warmer in England than Spain and Portugal most of this week

[MP-R]

8 hours ago, Jackfrost said:

I hate to be a negative nelly but this exceptional burst of heat only adds fuel to my fear that we're in for another mild winter, perhaps to a much greater, possibly record-breaking, degree than the last three. The fact that all three Summer months were above average to some degree despite constant complaints of how cool and underwhelming the weather was shows how our perceptions of what constitutes warmth have quickly changed. The cluster of cold winters between 2008-13 seems to have ended and the scientific proof of a rapidly warming world, especially since the end of Europe's cold winter cluster, suggests that the odds are stacked against anyone with high expectations of a notably cold winter.

 

Yes and no. Warm/hot spells in September, a mild mushy October then a change through November towards a more anticyclonic winter could result in something very similar to autumn/winter 2005. Although not much in the way of snow during the winter, it was certainly a seasonal one.

[sundog]

7 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

8 hours ago, Jackfrost said:

I hate to be a negative nelly but this exceptional burst of heat only adds fuel to my fear that we're in for another mild winter, perhaps to a much greater, possibly record-breaking, degree than the last three. The fact that all three Summer months were above average to some degree despite constant complaints of how cool and underwhelming the weather was shows how our perceptions of what constitutes warmth have quickly changed. The cluster of cold winters between 2008-13 seems to have ended and the scientific proof of a rapidly warming world, especially since the end of Europe's cold winter cluster, suggests that the odds are stacked against anyone with high expectations of a notably cold winter.

That's not to say that cold outbreaks and snowfalls are not possible in the mildest of winters - I still remember fondly the frosty, foggy spell before Christmas 2006 and the two successive days of heavy snow in February 2007 - but I suspect that mild and possibly wet weather will be the overarching theme of this upcoming Winter. Also, while I suspect that this kind of thinking is not popular on a forum like this, I struggle to find much joy in a UK cold spell in the knowledge that the planet as a whole is warming at a frightening speed while multiple species hurdle towards extinction.

That said, I still love Winter whatever the weather. Here in the west, there's a certain charm to watching the weather rolling in fresh from the Atlantic, the howling wind and dark nights. It really does take snow and low temperatures to make it special, though. Come back, December 2010. The minus double-digit temperatures, humongous icicles, Christmas lights and perfectly still and silent nights that followed the 40 cm snowfall of the 17th was the most beautiful I've ever seen this country.

(Looking back, this post might have been better suited to the climate change forum, so feel free to move if that is so).

My thoughts exactly. It might be all well and good for those who are looking forward to the heat much of the UK will get this week,but to me it's just yet more signs that the climate is changing.

I also worry is the warmth there has been so far this month going to set an overall precedent for the coming months. Is it telling us the coming winter is going to be another stinker????

Those enjoying the warmth now but who also want a cold winter maybe should not be so smug in the current weather. Often you can't have your cake and eat it. 

How many decent winters in the last 20 odd yrs have followed warm autumns? Very few,off the top of my head only winter 2009/10 comes to mind.

 

Edited September 12, 2016 by sundog

[Daniel*]

 

32C at this time of year surely must be record breaking? Quite a divide between east and west.  

 

 

 

 

 

[Evening thunder]

I don't think the occurrence or not of a plume now (which depends on the fine detail of day to day weather) really means much regarding what winter will be like.

After all last year showed we can have cooler Septembers turning into a very mild November and record smashingly mild December (making it seem like the temp was about 15C for 4 months), why can't we have it the other way round?

It may be mild but I think predicting winter based on this plume is unnecessary worry, for want of a better word.
1947 for instance had a very cold winter turning into a hot summer.

Edited September 12, 2016 by Evening thunder

[Evening thunder]

13 minutes ago, Changing Skies. said:

 

32C at this time of year surely must be record breaking? Quite a divide between east and west.  

 

 

 

 

 

Definitely an 'away from the west' occurrence at least on Tuesday.
A chart like this should extend the notable temps to my area if that was daytime instead of nighttime, but not sure if that can hold on long enough down here on Wednesday, some models don't think so.


Edit: well I wanted to add this to my last post rather than double post, but this forum software doesn't seem to be allowing that as well as still being buggy and endlessly returning old quotes and text for me to delete.

Edited September 12, 2016 by Evening thunder

[Gael_Force]

2 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

I don't think the occurrence or not of a plume now (which depends on the fine detail of day to day weather) really means much regarding what winter will be like.

After all last year showed we can have cooler Septembers turning into a very mild November and record smashingly mild December (making it seem like the temp was about 15C for 4 months), why can't we have it the other way round?

It may be mild but I think predicting winter based on this plume is unnecessary worry, for want of a better word.
1947 for instance had a very cold winter turning into a hot summer.

Absolutely the point I was trying to make earlier about the focus on one date in the month being 4 dgrees higher than any previous one.

I think the pattern this is brought about by is maybe a sign of the solar weakness in the extent of the meridionality shown. That's supposed to be a feature of times of low solar activity, something that might be good for future winter for those fussing about it. When the jet is all looped, sometimes we are in the heat and sometimes the cold.

[Delka]

Forecast is going for a possible 31c here tomorrow, yet the record to beat is apparently 24.9c here.. That would be insane with a 6c jump!

[stainesbloke]

A very underwhelming start to the week here, rain, gloom and not even that warm. Is this 'heatwave' going to be another one day wonder? Or will it be like last week when summer was meant to return but I had grey skies and drizzle for 5 days lol?!

Edited September 12, 2016 by stainesbloke

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Looks like being quite cloudy across the SE tomorrow afternoon, especially when reaching the peak heat of the day. This is according to latest GFS run.

Any potential record could well fail due to cloud cover. 

[Evening thunder]

1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

Absolutely the point I was trying to make earlier about the focus on one date in the month being 4 dgrees higher than any previous one.

I think the pattern this is brought about by is maybe a sign of the solar weakness in the extent of the meridionality shown. That's supposed to be a feature of times of low solar activity, something that might be good for future winter for those fussing about it. When the jet is all looped, sometimes we are in the heat and sometimes the cold.

Yeah, this looks pretty notable but I think the 35C+ of early September 1906 (with 6 daily records and 5 days over 34C), or the 34.8C on the 8th September 1911, 29.9C on the 1st October 2011, etc were more notable (and especially the 1895 example you mentioned). This spell does look to coincide with a kind of dip in daily records and it's the first time they dip below 30C.

5+ days earlier we therefore probably wouldn't get a daily record (and they are all above 32C before the 10th), a few days later we may only scrape one, and 32.2C has been recorded on the 19th, with 30.6C on the 27th.

I suppose you could compare it to the '13th June enigma', the temperature to break that 28.3C may not be that extreme in itself considering that every other summer day is 30C+ (though that's probably a stronger example)

With the records seemingly from the 1870's onwards (on the TORRO page) you'd expect to average 2-3 new date records a year anyway, ignoring the warming trend and increased station density. 

If this became the latest date a certain temperature has been reached (i.e it exceeds the 32.2C from the 19th), which it could, I think there may be more of a case for it to be labelled extreme/record breaking or whatever.

And yeah that may be the case concerning the lower solar activity and the jetstream, though I don't pretend to know what if anything this spell may reflect and what that may or may not mean for winter, so it's not really worth being concerned about for me

Edited September 12, 2016 by Evening thunder

[iapennell]

1 hour ago, Evening thunder said:

I don't think the occurrence or not of a plume now (which depends on the fine detail of day to day weather) really means much regarding what winter will be like.

After all last year showed we can have cooler Septembers turning into a very mild November and record smashingly mild December (making it seem like the temp was about 15C for 4 months), why can't we have it the other way round?

It may be mild but I think predicting winter based on this plume is unnecessary worry, for want of a better word.
1947 for instance had a very cold winter turning into a hot summer.

Certainly a very warm spell in late September or even October need not preclude cold weather during the subsequent winter.  I am old enough to remember how it panned out in 1978/79. There was often warm weather in October 1978, even where I live in the North Pennines and I can remember a school trip with my class visiting Vindolanda (Roman Fort Museum) on Hadrian's Wall in Northumberland. The weather, I can remember, was warm and pleasant that Autumn day in 1978. Then a couple of months later it was bitterly cold with over a foot of snow falling around 2nd December. The 1978/79 Winter itself was one of the coldest, and by far the snowiest, winter I can remember with frequent raging blizzards. By February 1979 there was a snow-drift running from the top of our barn and right out across the field adjacent (a depth of 10 metres) and level snow was above the height of the walls and fences so the sheep (those that were not buried under snow-drifts) got out and came into the yard.

I remember being off school for weeks at a time because the frequent blizzards meant that my family living in the North Pennines were often completely cut off from the outside world during the 1978/79 Winter. 

Some years later we had very warm weather in late-September and early October 1985. On the 1st October I recorded a maximum temperature in the shade of 21C, which was my record for October warmth then. Yet a month later it turned bitterly cold and November 1985 remains by far the coldest November that I have recorded with a mean temperature of 0.1C: Icy northerlies, snowfalls and hard night frosts dominated that month. Then the Winter 1985/86 was really cold and February 1986 was snow-covered throughout with a mean temperature of -2.9C making it the coldest calendar month that I have had the privilege of recording.

All that said, I do agree to some extent that a persistently warm autumn is more likely to be followed by a mild winter. Persistent warm south and south-westerly winds keep the seas around and to the west of Britain warmer than normal and the seas, which take a long time to lose their heat on account of their very high specific heat capacities so they retain this warmth into Winter. The relatively warm seas then continue to modify airstreams passing over them leading to airstreams reaching Britain being warmer than they otherwise might be. This would lead to a milder winter, other things being equal. 

It is also possible for the large-scale weather patterns that bring a warm autumn to persist through the Winter. This is quite likely if we have a strong Circumpolar Vortex with deep depressions in high latitudes when the pattern of warm sea-surface temperatures and strong baroclinic zones restricted to the sub-arctic encouraging such a pattern to persist. Within such a setting, warm moist south-westerly winds that persist through October are likely to stay the course.