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25 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Morning MP-R :)
I remember that heatwave in autumn 2011... It felt, wouldn't say wrong, more sort of strange... High summer heat, the smell of barbecues and dark at 19.00 in the evening :blink2:
An Indian summer is one thing, but that really was something else!
... And likewise I agree with what you say, autumn will be much more well received if we do have a bit of summer first :good: 

 

Yes it was particularly strange, and I doubt something like it will be witnessed for a very long time at that time of year. Don't know about other people, but I find summer and winter as sort of cleansing seasons. I need summer warmth/heat in order to be ready for autumn, a winter cold in order for spring to feel properly welcome. Without the two, it just feels like one long season of boredom as per this year. For me, I'd love a September 2005 followed by October 2010 or 2012, followed by November 2005, then followed by the synoptics of November/December 2010 in December and January. :)

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According to my sunset/sunrise charts, we're losing 90secs of daylight every sunrise & sunset. Basically, Autumn is approaching at 3mins per day.

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15 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

According to my sunset/sunrise charts, we're losing 90secs of daylight every sunrise & sunset. Basically, Autumn is approaching at 3mins per day.

YAY!! Excellent news TONA :yahoo:
By the way... These little chaps are now popping up all over the place (I saw this one whilst heading out to sort the horses out this evening)... Quite hard to spot because they're still green, but they are here... Keep looking, you'll find them :good:

IMG_8275.JPG

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I have to be honest, earlier this evening whilst heading out to sort the horses out for the evening, I noticed a 'chill in the air'... And I've just had the dog out for his last walk of the day and there is still a very pronounced nip in the air, coupled up with the dampness on the car... All very encouraging signs for the autumn lover here :D
... I wonder what the minimum temperature will be overnight? :cold:

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Im finding it really hard to sleep with light nights/mornings i love september as normally cool on an evening but not light too early. Lets hope we get some frosts and snow this winter past 2/3 winters have been crap here

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Considering it is autumn all year round in the UK, the weather hasn't been that bad lately. Only 3 months of autumn left, before autumn starts.:cc_confused:

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26 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Considering it is autumn all year round in the UK, the weather hasn't been that bad lately. Only 3 months of autumn left, before autumn starts.:cc_confused:

Three months? It's September in SEVEN weeks !!

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18 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

I have to be honest, earlier this evening whilst heading out to sort the horses out for the evening, I noticed a 'chill in the air'... And I've just had the dog out for his last walk of the day and there is still a very pronounced nip in the air, coupled up with the dampness on the car... All very encouraging signs for the autumn lover here :D
... I wonder what the minimum temperature will be overnight? :cold:

The chill in the air that you are feeling isn't happening because we are getting closer to Autumn, it's just because the Summer weather is absolutely awful. We aren't half way through Summer yet.

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Considering the weather has been so bad, the hazelnuts are in a real hurry, they will be ready by the end of this month, two months early.

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10 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Considering the weather has been so bad, the hazelnuts are in a real hurry, they will be ready by the end of this month, two months early.

Maybe they know something we don't about winter! :D

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Roll on Autumn, fed up with this so called summer, there's still time I guess but I don't hold out much hope to be honest.  I find Autumn a more interesting season anyway and winter even more so.

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On 13/07/2016 at 17:40, SouthPenninesPuppy said:

The chill in the air that you are feeling isn't happening because we are getting closer to Autumn, it's just because the Summer weather is absolutely awful. We aren't half way through Summer yet.

Evening SPP :)
As much as I'm not missing the heat and humidity, I have to agree with the fact a few more sunny days wouldn't go amiss.

On 14/07/2016 at 08:16, snowtimenow said:

Roll on Autumn, fed up with this so called summer, there's still time I guess but I don't hold out much hope to be honest.  I find Autumn a more interesting season anyway and winter even more so.

Seconded Snowtime we can get such variety in the autumn months :good:

On 13/07/2016 at 17:54, lassie23 said:

Considering the weather has been so bad, the hazelnuts are in a real hurry, they will be ready by the end of this month, two months early.

Evening Lassie23 :)
Its the gloomfest that has got to me about this summer... Its just a carry on of last winter :cray:
Let just hope that things can finally change this autumn :good:

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Being as time is marching on, I thought I'd have a quick look at what the CFS is forecasting for this coming autumn.
Now I know that the CFS can be about as accurate as trying to hit 180 on a spinning dart board, but it can be quite useful as a guide to whats in store... And if I remember, it sort of got the guide for last autumn right (somebody please correct me if I'm wrong).:unknw:

From what I can see, it looks an average sort of autumn coming up, both in terms of temperature, rainfall (Western side of Scotland and Ireland excepted), and also pressure wise.
If I've misinterpreted these charts, then someone please correct me :pardon:

CFS Autumn 2016.gif

CFS Autumn 2016 Precip.gif

CFS Autumn 2016 Temp.gif

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Probably worth watching for the effects of hurricanes during September and October this year given that atmospheric indicators would suggest September-October will probably see average to above normal activity and that means recurring systems messing with our weather. 

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On 7/14/2016 at 04:46, Essex Easterly said:

Maybe they know something we don't about winter! :D

I'm pretty sure stuff like that is triggered by cool nights (shock therapy if you will). 

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On 15/07/2016 at 21:16, Dangerous55019 said:

Being as time is marching on, I thought I'd have a quick look at what the CFS is forecasting for this coming autumn.
Now I know that the CFS can be about as accurate as trying to hit 180 on a spinning dart board, but it can be quite useful as a guide to whats in store... And if I remember, it sort of got the guide for last autumn right (somebody please correct me if I'm wrong).:unknw:

From what I can see, it looks an average sort of autumn coming up, both in terms of temperature, rainfall (Western side of Scotland and Ireland excepted), and also pressure wise.
If I've misinterpreted these charts, then someone please correct me :pardon:

CFS Autumn 2016.gif

CFS Autumn 2016 Precip.gif

CFS Autumn 2016 Temp.gif

By the looks of things it is failing to pick up a decent signal for temperature and precipitation. But those pressure anomalies if anything suggest a westerly based scenario I suppose with ridging based to the South of the country, the jet stream would probably be running through the country. 

This would indicate an unsettled scenario, which of course is the average for Autumn anyway. 

That's one thing to remember; 'average' in Autumn may commonly mean 'wet and mild'. 

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8 hours ago, SouthPenninesPuppy said:

By the looks of things it is failing to pick up a decent signal for temperature and precipitation. But those pressure anomalies if anything suggest a westerly based scenario I suppose with ridging based to the South of the country, the jet stream would probably be running through the country. 

This would indicate an unsettled scenario, which of course is the average for Autumn anyway. 

That's one thing to remember; 'average' in Autumn may commonly mean 'wet and mild'. 

If it's half as good as last Autumn's Atlantic storms, I shall be rather chuffed.

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17 hours ago, SouthPenninesPuppy said:

By the looks of things it is failing to pick up a decent signal for temperature and precipitation. But those pressure anomalies if anything suggest a westerly based scenario I suppose with ridging based to the South of the country, the jet stream would probably be running through the country. 

This would indicate an unsettled scenario, which of course is the average for Autumn anyway. 

That's one thing to remember; 'average' in Autumn may commonly mean 'wet and mild'. 

Evening SPP :)
To be honest, you've said exactly what was going through my mind :good:
 

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Due to the heat I was wide awake at 03.30 this morning, so I went outside to try and cool down... So imagine my shock at seeing a shallow fog drifting across the fields and valley, plus a very heavy dew; it lifted my autumnal spirits no end I can tell you :D

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14 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

If it's half as good as last Autumn's Atlantic storms, I shall be rather chuffed.

I don't ever manage to recall previous Autumn's all that well if I am being honest; largely because a vast majority are just mild and wet with rain and gales so all previous Autumn's just seem to merge into one! 

 

Some that stand out I think are 2009 (the reason being it was a particularly wet Autumn especially October and November which saw severe flooding in my local area)

2010 - A cool and sometimes coldish October and a very cold (towards the end) November which is a rather unusual pattern for Autumn 

2011 - A very mild (almost hot at times) October I seem to recall? Made it stand out a bit 

2000 - Obviously this one was particularly remembered for being extremely wet 

All the other years I just can't recall them that well at all really. 

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  Early look at winter 2016/17

 http:// http://www.ukweatherfo...her-forecast-201617/   

Link doesn't seem to be working so I just copied and pasted the text.

From UK weather forecast.

 

Last winter’s unsettled weather was largely dominated by a combination of a strong El Nino and strong westerly phase of the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation). It was clear that these two factors combined would produce a strong Atlantic flow during December last year and through much of January this year. We certainly won’t see that combination again this winter so let’s see what the early pointers are.

So with El Nino now officially gone our attention turns to La Nina and its clear from most of the long range models that La Nina will be in full swing by the time we reach our winter season.

Thick yellow line indicates average of all the model runs. This line drops below the 0.5c threshold needed for La Nina at around mid to late summer and will be in full swing during Winter.

Solar activity is also likely to play a major part this winter. Many cold winter periods in the UK have coincided with very low solar activity and while there is no direct connection, low solar activity does have a very strong correlation with an amplified jet stream. This amplification leads to blocking and when blocking occurs across the northern hemisphere, cold air from the arctic floods down to lower latitudes, as was the case here in the winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11. The chart below shows that we are now heading into low solar activity. In fact at the moment the sun is actually spot free (29/6/16).

Solar sunspot numbers heading towards very low levels.

So taking these two factors into consideration we can look back historically and see what years had very similar factors. The years found where the winters of 1954/55, 1964/65, 1973/74, 1995/96, 2007/08, 2010/11.

Starting with December using the air temperatures at 1000mb (close to the surface) there is a very clear signal for much cooler than average temperatures during early winter. This signal was present when we ran the data using all La Nina years as a base, however, after adding the low solar factor the signal became much stronger. This signal is one to monitor very closely in the coming months.

Historical UK winters, December: Below average temperatures clearly being shown.

January and February signal a fairly average outlook with temperatures near average across the UK but January does show hints of warmer temperatures to the south of the UK but looking a February the hints are for Europe to return to a colder pattern, with Greenland looking rather warm, perhaps indicating a block here.

Historical UK winters, January: Average temperature more likely.

Historical UK winters, February: Average temperatures are likely but with scope for below average.

So we do seem to be heading in a very different direction this winter with the Atlantic flow looking less likely to dominate like it did last winter. Add in the fact that we will most probably be in an easterly phase of the QBO as well, this only enhances the chances of the Atlantic flow becoming disrupted, thus, more chances of colder weather developing. 

 

Edited by sundog
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31 minutes ago, sundog said:

  Early look at winter 2016/17

 http:// http://www.ukweatherfo...her-forecast-201617/   

Link doesn't seem to be working so I just copied and pasted the text.

From UK weather forecast.

 

Last winter’s unsettled weather was largely dominated by a combination of a strong El Nino and strong westerly phase of the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation). It was clear that these two factors combined would produce a strong Atlantic flow during December last year and through much of January this year. We certainly won’t see that combination again this winter so let’s see what the early pointers are.

So with El Nino now officially gone our attention turns to La Nina and its clear from most of the long range models that La Nina will be in full swing by the time we reach our winter season.

Thick yellow line indicates average of all the model runs. This line drops below the 0.5c threshold needed for La Nina at around mid to late summer and will be in full swing during Winter.

Solar activity is also likely to play a major part this winter. Many cold winter periods in the UK have coincided with very low solar activity and while there is no direct connection, low solar activity does have a very strong correlation with an amplified jet stream. This amplification leads to blocking and when blocking occurs across the northern hemisphere, cold air from the arctic floods down to lower latitudes, as was the case here in the winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11. The chart below shows that we are now heading into low solar activity. In fact at the moment the sun is actually spot free (29/6/16).

Solar sunspot numbers heading towards very low levels.

So taking these two factors into consideration we can look back historically and see what years had very similar factors. The years found where the winters of 1954/55, 1964/65, 1973/74, 1995/96, 2007/08, 2010/11.

Starting with December using the air temperatures at 1000mb (close to the surface) there is a very clear signal for much cooler than average temperatures during early winter. This signal was present when we ran the data using all La Nina years as a base, however, after adding the low solar factor the signal became much stronger. This signal is one to monitor very closely in the coming months.

Historical UK winters, December: Below average temperatures clearly being shown.

January and February signal a fairly average outlook with temperatures near average across the UK but January does show hints of warmer temperatures to the south of the UK but looking a February the hints are for Europe to return to a colder pattern, with Greenland looking rather warm, perhaps indicating a block here.

Historical UK winters, January: Average temperature more likely.

Historical UK winters, February: Average temperatures are likely but with scope for below average.

So we do seem to be heading in a very different direction this winter with the Atlantic flow looking less likely to dominate like it did last winter. Add in the fact that we will most probably be in an easterly phase of the QBO as well, this only enhances the chances of the Atlantic flow becoming disrupted, thus, more chances of colder weather developing. 

 

Sundog; this post unfortunately doesn't really suit being in the Autumn 2016 thread. Such level of detail from you in regards to this Autumn would be an interesting read though! :)

Edited by SouthPenninesPuppy

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1 minute ago, SouthPenninesPuppy said:

Sundog; this post unfortunately doesn't really suit being in the Autumn 2016 thread

True but I didn't know where to put it and it's too early for a winter thread.

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I will provide a long-term outlook for Autumn 2016 when I get the chance. It would be churlish to try and produce one now as certain fundamentals like sea-surface temperatures, hurricane activity in the tropics, ENSO, the Quasi-biennial Oscillation and likely extent of Arctic Ice, not to mention the Sun sunspot activity can change quickly in a month. This would then alter the parameters upon which my forecast would be based.

I did not get my summer forecast (to date) exactly spot on so one has to be very careful when making predictions that one also makes allowances for the likely changes in those variables that undergird the predictions. In summer the upper westerlies that encircle the Arctic are weak and prone to sudden changes and flips in circulation-pattern caused by quite mesoscale weather-patterns such as a Spanish Plume. 

The autumn through spring months are somewhat easier to predict because the upper westerlies are stronger and there tend to be just three waves around its circumpolar circulation. You know where the Trade Winds are likely to form, how extensive and strong these are going to be and how large therefore the sink for atmospheric westerly momentum in higher latitudes must be to counterbalance the Trade Winds to satisfy Conservation of Angular Momentum laws. You can also ascertain  in advance roughly where the southern limits of Arctic ice (or snow-cover and frigid air over land) are likely to place the main baroclinic zones and thus to westerlies to the south of these and that provides a better framework for making monthly or seasonal predictions.

I will provide some thoughts for now:

1) El Nino is giving way to Lá Nina in the tropical Pacific

2) Arctic pack-ice looks like it will be at a record low extent

3) Sunspot activity is declining

4) The NW Atlantic is warmer than usual once more part parts of the NE Atlantic west of Britain remain cooler than usual. It is not likely to get warmer than usual going into autumn but the NW Atlantic will stay warm.

5) Hurricane activity in the tropical Atlantic and Typhoon Activity in the Pacific look set to increase.

All of this suggests that the Westerlies will be further north than their normal latitudes going into Autumn, this would make them stronger than usual as will increasing hurricane/typhoon activity in the tropics. This would be related to Conservation of Angular Momentum considerations. However weaker sunspot activity and Lá Nina in the Equatorial Pacific mean weaker upper westerlies in the subtropical jet-stream through less impact of solar flares, etc intensifying them and a weaker Hadley Circulation.

On the other hand, most of the sub-arctic seas are a little warmer than usual to date; this would strengthen westerlies well north of their normal latitudes through fuelling depressions. Cooler than usual waters just west of Britain will impart "anticyclonic curvature" to the upper Westerlies over Britain.

This suggests high-pressure is likely to dominate across western Europe and southern Britain, certainly through September and into October whilst stronger Westerlies will affect Scotland as progressively deeper depressions sweep eastwards from Iceland towards Arctic Norway. It suggests most of England and Wales will have a dry September and early October with some warm sunny days but also some cold clear nights with mist and localised ground-frost. Some frontal bands associated with depressions far to the north will bring some rain at times but the South East may remain particularly dry. The prevailing wind is likely to be westerly or even north-westerly so September/early October will not be much warmer than usual, though this period will not be cold.

Meanwhile for Scotland and the far north of England expect stronger westerly winds and the first gales of the season during September/early October. There will be plenty of rain in the far north and the western side of Scotland and also Cumbria (including all upland areas) but North East England and lowland eastern Scotland will be sheltered by hills to the west from the prevailing winds and, with the help of high-pressure to the south- the September-early October period will be drier than usual with a number of warm sunny days. Ridges of high-pressure following the passage of deep depressions to the north will bring some fine days across the whole country, this will follow clear nights during which fog and ground-frost will occur quite widely across the North and Scotland. Air-frosts are likely to be restricted to frost-hollows and Scottish uplands during this period. Mean air temperatures are likely to be fractionally cooler than normal during September and early October across the North.

This is similar to the general pattern I expect for late-July and August, often wet and cool in the North and Scotland (particularly the North West) but much drier and warmer further south.

Beyond mid-October I cannot offer anything detailed at this stage, except to say that the most likely scenario is for deeper depressions to move east on a track a bit further south (i.e. closer to Britain) which will probably bring wet and windy weather on a regular basis to the whole country. But I cannot cast that in stone at the time of writing (20th July). 

 

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