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I'm thinking a 2nd half more active hurricane season(on back of a nino)will enhance northern blocking as we go deep into autumn.

Obviously a warm start but cooling down markedly late September onwards for me.I'm personally plumping for a drier than average autumn with lows shooting towards Greenland first half autumn then a switch to Iberia with a southerly tracking jet.Just been flicking through archives and totting up a neutral ensd signal with a declining solar cycle.

Thinking a winter close to 2005 personally.Drier than average but cooler for nw Europe and wetter than average southern,central Europe.

 

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40 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

for 0ct, I would like fantasy thoughts of deep southerlies from Africa, bringing sunny warm days at 25°

For Oct ,I would like fantasy thoughts of deep northerlies from the Arctic giving Frost's and wintry precip. 

Haven't Autumn's been warm enough in recent yrs without the likes of that though?  Summer had its chance. People egging on autumn warmth and heat and all this warmth would do is show us if proof were needed just how much our climate is changing IMO. No thanks

 

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What a lovely day. Just some broken cloud compared to yesterday's grey blanket. It's been a real lottery regarding cloud amounts.

For me September should always be warm as cold is useless this early. Save the coolness and freshness until the second half of autumn; we get enough of it as it is.

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Days above temperature threshold in 2016 for my location (averages in brackets).  Looks about average with 20c still possible for another month or so.

20c: 93 days (105 days)

25c: 27 days (29 days)

26.7/80f: 16 days (16 days)

30c: 4 days (4.5 days)

32c: 2 days (0.7 days)

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Still 18.1C here, so its looking like today's min temp will beat the record set way back in 1984 (17.0C on the 1st) by a degree or so. Exceptional overnight warmth for this part of the world. Minima of 18C are very rare here even in the summer months. There's only been a handful in this location in 36 years of records.

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It was 17.8c here a couple of hrs ago but has since risen to 19.5c.

Starting to rain here now,presume the band that will hearald the arrival of the fresher weather behind it.

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7 minutes ago, Essex Easterly said:

Cover your eyes! ;)

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmaxtemp.png

The heat the charts show for France would surely be incredible for mid Sept if they came off. Scary if they do.

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I'd rather it was still warm now - it's too early for anything cold, and will be for another 6-7 weeks! Come November time I'll start the ever optimistic gaze to the north for some wintriness. I've a feeling I will be disappointed once again. Definitely not autumn yet though - this spell of weather is making the first half of June look embarrassing!

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41 minutes ago, Nick L said:

It's so much nicer having fresh air out there though, long may it continue. Will finally be able to get some freshness into the house.

I haven't had the heater turned on in my aquarium for six weeks now, simply because the room it is in has been warmer than the 25°C I have set on it.

It is pretty windy today, so with all the windows open, it is starting to freshen up nicely. :)

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EC seasonal has been updated. October is shown as settled with high pressure dominated, while November has a significant northern blocking scenario. Interestingly, it maintains some degree of northern blocking through December and January.

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4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

EC seasonal has been updated. October is shown as settled with high pressure dominated, while November has a significant northern blocking scenario. Interestingly, it maintains some degree of northern blocking through December and January.

Lovely stuff. 

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