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I'm starting to wonder whether Iapennel will be right about us getting no air frosts until at least November (though I'm not sure that's actually unusual for my location and he's actually talking about his more frost prone location, stating this has only happened four times in the last 30 years or more). He certainly seems pretty confident of this. But as ever time will tell. Hope he's wrong, but he does seem like a pretty successful long range forecaster.

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2 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I'm starting to wonder whether Iapennel will be right about us getting no air frosts until at least November (though I'm not sure that's actually unusual for my location and he's actually talking about his more frost prone location, stating this has only happened four times in the last 30 years or more). He certainly seems pretty confident of this. But as ever time will tell. Hope he's wrong, but he does seem like a pretty successful long range forecaster.

His summer forecast wasn't that accurate, his winter forecasts tend to be better.

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The temp has only dropped about 1 degree since 8pm. Currently 19.7C. No doubt in Darlington Gavin (Summer Sun) will be sat in his vegetable garden right now in shorts and t shirt eagerly awaiting the next rise in high pressure. :clap:

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The temperature has actually risen here over the last hour and is now 20.2C after dropping to 19.6C at 10pm.

There isn't any breeze either so the house is baking.

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CFS actually has been going for a cool/cold October for the last few runs so certainly in contrast to what we've seen so far this month.

Staying on the subject of the CFS...I noticed Singularity pointed out the increasing trend for blocking during December/January time- a trend that has also been picked up by ECM seasonal (according to Nick L). Well the noise seems to be growing louder

cfs-4-1-2017.png

 

The associated 850s temperature anomaly chart actually shows a 'black hole anomaly' just to our NE denoting upper temps over 10c below the average!

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36 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

CFS actually has been going for a cool/cold October for the last few runs so certainly in contrast to what we've seen so far this month.

Staying on the subject of the CFS...I noticed Singularity pointed out the increasing trend for blocking during December/January time- a trend that has also been picked up by ECM seasonal (according to Nick L). Well the noise seems to be growing louder

cfs-4-1-2017.png

 

The associated 850s temperature anomaly chart actually shows a 'black hole anomaly' just to our NE denoting upper temps over 10c below the average!

The new ECM seasonal is out on the 8th so I'll report back with an update.

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11 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

What a vile start to September here, complete gloomy cloud-fest with drizzle. High humidities too but it has been warm at least. Meant to be sunny and very warm today but grey gloom yet again. 

Certainly vile here...persistent light rain,drizzle at a sweatfesting 20C!:angry:

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The exceptionally cloudy start to the month continues. Just 15.2 hrs after the first 6 days, and overcast again today.

We've also had over half of the normal number of rain days for the entire month, already.

The average high for the first 6 days has been close to normal, though.

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Looks like I might get through this entire 'warm/hot/humid/whateveryouwanttocallit' spell with virtually no sunshine. Precisely why I don't rate settled spells in September as cloud starts becoming a big issue! Looks like the return of the Atlantic tomorrow will bring us a bright clear and sunny day.

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A min of 12.6C with some fog here this morning. Yesterday morning was the warm one, min of 18.2C.

Sun came out yesterday afternoon here, some fog then low cloud this morning but the sun is out again now.

12 hours ago, Mapantz said:

18°C was my low this morning. It would have been a record, except my rollover time is midnight, and it was 15.8°C :closedeyes:

Clear skies and 15.5°C currently.

Same here (18.2C became 14.1C). I thought about changing to 0900-0900 due to missing mild minima and double counting cold minima, but then it would be inconsistent with my previous records, and you would still get double counting of cold minima in winter as the temp usually hasn't risen much by 0900 (and possibly miss cold maxima or mild minima under certain circumstances)

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1 minute ago, Evening thunder said:

A min of 13.0C with some fog here this morning. Yesterday morning was the warm one, min of 18.2C.

Sun came out yesterday afternoon here, some fog then low cloud this morning but the sun is out again now.

Same here (18.2C became 14.1C). I thought about changing to 0900-0900 due to missing mild minima and double counting cold minima, but then it would be inconsistent with my previous records, and you would still get double counting of cold minima in winter as the temp usually hasn't risen much by 0900 (and possibly miss cold maxima or mild minima under certain circumstances)

Yeah - changing the rollover time now would mess up all the data stored in mysql database, so I'm going to change it on December 31St.

It's feeling quite hot here, now we have blue skies. Temp of 24.6°C with a dew point of 19.4°C

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15 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

A min of 12.6C with some fog here this morning. Yesterday morning was the warm one, min of 18.2C.

Sun came out yesterday afternoon here, some fog then low cloud this morning but the sun is out again now.

Same here (18.2C became 14.1C). I thought about changing to 0900-0900 due to missing mild minima and double counting cold minima, but then it would be inconsistent with my previous records, and you would still get double counting of cold minima in winter as the temp usually hasn't risen much by 0900 (and possibly miss cold maxima or mild minima under certain circumstances)

I tend to do both these days but its the same either way as Monday night's warm minima will probably be hidden by the lower temp on Monday morning at 8am anyway! Here for example yesterday the minima was 15.7C on 0000-0000 but on 0800-0800 (GMT) it was actually lower at 14.3C.

Last night was ridiculous here regardless though with a min temp of 19.0C. Ironically if this manages to remain until midnight then not only will it be the miles above the current high September min (17.0C set in 1984), but also the warmest of any month.

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32 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Yeah - changing the rollover time now would mess up all the data stored in mysql database, so I'm going to change it on December 31St.

It's feeling quite hot here, now we have blue skies. Temp of 24.6°C with a dew point of 19.4°C

 

17 minutes ago, reef said:

I tend to do both these days but its the same either way as Monday night's warm minima will probably be hidden by the lower temp on Monday morning at 8am anyway! Here for example yesterday the minima was 15.7C on 0000-0000 but on 0800-0800 (GMT) it was actually lower at 14.3C.

Last night was ridiculous here regardless though with a min temp of 19.0C. Ironically if this manages to remain until midnight then not only will it be the miles above the current high September min (17.0C set in 1984), but also the warmest of any month.


Yeah I tend to do both as well to some extent, I manually keep a 'top 5' of 0900-0900 records, though will probably keep the automatic logging set to 00:00 as it makes things simpler/easier for my set up.
Though it seems really common here all through the year for mild minima to be hidden by it being cooler the next evening, so it can be tempting to change sometimes.

The 18.2C yesterday was my 2nd highest minima so far using 0900-0900. I had 23.7C at 3-4am on July the 1st last year and 22.8C at 2am on the 20th this year, only for cooler air to come in before dawn.

Up to 23.3C here now and feeling warm, pretty nice for September.

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It's just so yukky out there for want of a better word. Went for a brisk, 30 minute walk and I've come back absolutely pouring with sweat. Bring on the Atlantic and some fresh air! I'm just glad it's not hot here, completely overcast.

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