autumn Autumn 2016

[Summer Sun]

Today's high so far is 17c at Heathrow

Much better here in Darlo now we've swapped the easterly for a southerly feeling warmer and some sunshine too

[Summer Sun]

An unsettled start to next week but improving by mid week for most areas the one exception could be the SE where you'll be closer to low pressure

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37667361

[damianslaw]

All the dry very calm weather of late is helping to retain leaf cover on the trees, and the sunshine is boosting the storage of sugar the key recipe for brilliant colour. Liking the outlook alot, no gales of even strong winds on the cards for the foreseeable, and the return of dry sunny chilly conditions, perhaps our first air frost, which will do wonders for the autumn colours in the Lake District. Could be a cracking half term week for anyone wanting to see natures autumn display this year, traditionally the last week of October is the peak time for autumn colour, after the first frosts and just before the leaves give up and wither or fall to the ground, In some years early autumn gales strip the trees bear, this year I have a feeling they will simply wither away in a quiet retreat clinging on for dear life. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

As I'm not interested in the slightest in cold in 0ct, lat's hope the low can stall a bit like this, flooding warm air up from the south or possible Indian summer! half term Tuesday, could a trend develop? maybe 20° plus for holiday week

[Snowyowl9]

Well I`ve looked at the archives for the last week of October and I havn`t seen any charts to whats currently showing up looking all the way back to 1980.

Edited October 16, 2016 by Snowyowl9

[Essex snowman]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

As I'm not interested in the slightest in cold in 0ct, lat's hope the low can stall a bit like this, flooding warm air up from the south or possible Indian summer! half term Tuesday, could a trend develop? maybe 20° plus for holiday week

Let's hope not 

[booferking]

Had a wee peep at that myself but i went a little further back and the only winter i could find was 1946-47 and we all know what happened that year haha.

But the blocking wasnt even near what we are seeing in the charts this year.

[Summer Sun]

1st time I've spotted snow on the beebs national forecast this season

[March Blizzard]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

As I'm not interested in the slightest in cold in 0ct, lat's hope the low can stall a bit like this, flooding warm air up from the south or possible Indian summer! half term Tuesday, could a trend develop? maybe 20° plus for holiday week

Me neither, "cold" in October hardly ever translates to snow, more likely 9C and raining. No thanks. 

I love sunshine at this time of year, with the leaves turning, the growing shadows and the gentle warmth. Perfect. 

The cold can wait until all the trees are completely bare.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

1st time I've spotted snow on the beebs national forecast this season

"A cold snap on Tuesday, bringing snow to the Scottish Mountains" - Radio 4 this morning

[jvenge]

A tricky time of year for cold. Even with very good setups it is difficult. I personally would rather have seasonal weather. The cold can come in December onwards. I don't like the half way scenarios :-) Yesterday it was 6 degrees in the day here and then around 1 degree at night. That's a good 4-5 degrees below the norm for this time of year.

As a FYI, the Moldovan meteological group is going for a below average temperature winter for Moldova. They didn't give their reasoning and it wasn't something expressed in some of the more seasonal international forecasts.

 

[titchjuicy]

On 10/15/2016 at 22:37, damianslaw said:

All the dry very calm weather of late is helping to retain leaf cover on the trees, and the sunshine is boosting the storage of sugar the key recipe for brilliant colour. Liking the outlook alot, no gales of even strong winds on the cards for the foreseeable, and the return of dry sunny chilly conditions, perhaps our first air frost, which will do wonders for the autumn colours in the Lake District. Could be a cracking half term week for anyone wanting to see natures autumn display this year, traditionally the last week of October is the peak time for autumn colour, after the first frosts and just before the leaves give up and wither or fall to the ground, In some years early autumn gales strip the trees bear, this year I have a feeling they will simply wither away in a quiet retreat clinging on for dear life. 

As long as they hold on til the middle of November when i'm up

[MP-R]

13 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

As I'm not interested in the slightest in cold in 0ct, lat's hope the low can stall a bit like this, flooding warm air up from the south or possible Indian summer! half term Tuesday, could a trend develop? maybe 20° plus for holiday week

Although the circumstances under which we'd get warmth from that chart aren't particularly normal for October, it's surprisingly common how the final week in October has brought warmth in recent years - last year was very mild in the final week after a cool middle of the month, 23C on Halloween in 2014, 2011 was very mild to finish, 2009 brought a sort of summery spell of weather in the final week before the Atlantic kicked in big time in November etc. etc.

All eyes on what happens to that low should that transpire.

[cheese]

After the rain cleared away, yesterday was beautiful - lots of sunshine and a top temp of 16C. Perfect autumn weather, especially now the trees are beginning to change.

[jvenge]

5 minutes ago, cheese said:

After the rain cleared away, yesterday was beautiful - lots of sunshine and a top temp of 16C. Perfect autumn weather, especially now the trees are beginning to change.

Lucky, it was 0 degrees when I awoke this morning. I wouldn't mind some nice autumn weather.

[HafrenLMP1]

Went for two bike rides over the weekend; on Saturday it was autumn/ winter bib tights weather; yet yesterday afternoon it was warmer, if windier, but warm enough for bib shorts.

But it is noticeable that there are more leaves on the trees, and that the colours are what you associate with autumn; compared to recent autumns.

[carinthian]

The Met Office latest update confirms block pattern to remain for the rest of the month with high pressure to the NE and low to the SW.  Temps look slightly above normal in the South and West and slightly below for the far north and east. Furthermore, they now mention of signs of a return to a more mobile pattern during November with lows moving west to east.. However, not exact on the timing of this significant change in pattern but has now been mentioned. As always we will wait on the verdict.

 C

[Essex snowman]

Well we all no how poor met office are at anything over a week away so il wait and see what models are saying in a weeks time 

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

Well we all no how poor met office are at anything over a week away so il wait and see what models are saying in a weeks time 

Perfectly plausible we see mobility for a while...we are not going to head into winter completely blocked throughout. November 2009 is an example of the right kind of mobility...with weak heights ever present across the N latitudes rather than a raging PV.

[Snowyowl9]

Its certainly no October 2008 or 2000 come to that.

http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.html

[damianslaw]

11 hours ago, titchjuicy said:

As long as they hold on til the middle of November when i'm up

Yes you may be in luck this year, if the synoptics shown today verify - little in the way of strong winds, they are more likely to wither away, though frosts could have a significant effect. November can be an especially drab damp month, but it is a very evocative time of year, when its clear and calm. A cold dry sunny day in November has a special quality about it, mother nature settling down for its winter hibernation. Recent Novembers have brought mixed fayre here, Nov 2008 was a good one for cold dry frosty conditions, Nov 2009 abymsal with torrential rain and widespread flooding, Nov 2010 exceptionally quiet and ending up very cold, Nov 11 another wet mild affair, Nov 2012 preety average with a cold end, Nov 2013 similiar though a bit milder, Nov 14 and Nov 15 very mild dull and very wet - exceptionally so last year, hoping for something more akin to 2008, 2010 or 2012 this year.

[Matthew.]

Really like this Polar westerly. Feels clean and bracing.

[MP-R]

14 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Yes you may be in luck this year, if the synoptics shown today verify - little in the way of strong winds, they are more likely to wither away, though frosts could have a significant effect. November can be an especially drab damp month, but it is a very evocative time of year, when its clear and calm. A cold dry sunny day in November has a special quality about it, mother nature settling down for its winter hibernation. Recent Novembers have brought mixed fayre here, Nov 2008 was a good one for cold dry frosty conditions, Nov 2009 abymsal with torrential rain and widespread flooding, Nov 2010 exceptionally quiet and ending up very cold, Nov 11 another wet mild affair, Nov 2012 preety average with a cold end, Nov 2013 similiar though a bit milder, Nov 14 and Nov 15 very mild dull and very wet - exceptionally so last year, hoping for something more akin to 2008, 2010 or 2012 this year.

Really enjoyed November 2010, obviously for the cold spell in the final third, but also the progression towards it from the stormy first third, then the increasingly chilly middle third with some fog and frost before the bitter cold set in.

As I've said before, November 2012 sounds like an interesting one (I was living abroad then) - my weather records that continued while I was abroad indicated some frosty sunny days interspersed with some good convective days and two notable rainfall events leading to considerable flooding in Bristol, I think around the 21st-23rd of the month. I remember the northerly at the end of November as it filtered all the way south into Spain where I was living at the time.

November 2014 had its moments for me but like you say was that bit milder.

[Dangerous55019]

2 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Really like this Polar westerly. Feels clean and bracing.

Seconded, thirded and fourthed Matthew 

[Dangerous55019]

I think I've just found the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow