autumn Autumn 2016

[weirpig]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks fairly normal that, seems to suggest PM air for north, milder Atlantic air for the south, low lying southern areas don't look all that cold

Lol yes looked at the op which was very cold and posted the mean without really looking. However as means go it would produce snow in some areas  useless really as it changes day to day  I'll stick to the ec seasonal 

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, markyo said:

Many thanks for that,us Northern cave dwellers love this time of year when it's like this,near enough proper Autumn. Just fear the Atlantic rearing it's ugly head and causing misery for so many as it has over the last few years with storm and flood damage,can deal with the mild even though i hate it but the distress it causes at this time and the following winter season with the battering it gives certain areas is more than many can bear i'm sure.....as for heating well that goes without saying,gas bill not effected for some time to come!

Yes of course, though don't forget that in a normal winter, Atlantic onslaughts don't tend to last more than a week at a time and are often interspersed with either a UK high, or nudge north of a southern high, or a northerly, or an easterly etc. 2013-2014 and 2015-2016 were highly unusual in their own ways. I think something along the lines of the 2011-2012 and 2014-2015 Atlantic spells can enhance the autumn and winter experience with plenty of typical sunshine and showers days with sunny intervals.

[Summer Sun]

Uncertainties next week for where the low will sit easterly winds look unlikely

Will they be westerlies or southerlies that be the question...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37626239

[MP-R]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Uncertainties next week for where the low will sit easterly winds look unlikely

Will they be westerlies or southerlies that be the question...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37626239

Looks more like a southerly as the trough becomes a bit more elongated before an abrupt change to northwesterly ahead of round 2 of what we're experiencing now. If we can get some sun involved with southerly winds, it could feel noticeably warmer for a short while before winds change around to the northwest.

Edited October 11, 2016 by MP-R
Spelling.

[SMU]

On 07/10/2016 at 15:14, Steve Murr said:

Updated AO ensembles

yes thats a run sub -6 in there

S

This is significant !!

Updated AO ensembles- another trough developing after the rise- however nothing nailed on that yet-

if we want a record breaking October - Sub -1.6 month then the total for the 31 days needs to be 49.( negative )

At a quick stab out to the 16th we will be about 34-36 - so on the way there...

another update in 4-5 days

S

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

23 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Uncertainties next week for where the low will sit easterly winds look unlikely

Will they be westerlies or southerlies that be the question...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37626239

good the easterlies are useless, damn certain though they will be back in April, prefer southerlies in 0ct and possibility of indian summer

[Summer Sun]

Gradually settling down for the south and east next week with low-pressure systems affecting northern parts

Becoming milder for most by Sunday with the south widely 15c to 17c and 11c to 14c in the north

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37635483

[Summer Sun]

Our quiet Autumn looks set to continue into early November at least

 

 

[jules216]

Look how cold is Europe in the first half of October so far, courtesy of CFS

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Feels quite chilly in the gentle breeze out there this evening, with Autumnal type sunshine after the intermittent grey clouds and light showers of earlier on. I've also noticed an acceleration in the change to Autumnal colours on many species of trees recently. Some are still a dull green in colour though, but there's defiantly a difference to a couple of weeks back. There's no doubt in my mind that Autumn is establishing itself.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

10 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Our quiet Autumn looks set to continue into early November at least

 

 

This appears to contradict Accuweather's winter forecast which predicts an extremely stormy season (multiple named storms per week), which would set-in from mid-October, with a lull in November followed by a severe December, less severe January and a very bad February:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2016-2017-stormy-uk-mild-wet-france-germany/60378723

[JeffC]

Not a particularly betting man, but I know where my money would go!

[Dangerous55019]

Morning all, sorry I've not been on line much recently, a tad busy, personal 'issues' etc...
Can I just say how much I'm enjoying the benign autumn so far 
Some lovely sights around this area of North East Wales in the past week 

[Mapantz]

27 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Low sea ice and a persistent negative AO are favorable for the resumption of a more accelerated advance of Siberian snow cover. High Eurasian snow cover and low Arctic sea ice in the Barents-Kara seas favor first, a strengthening Siberian high and then a weakened polar vortex in winter. More NE heights in the GFS forecast:

I would probably credit Dr Cohen in your post when quoting from aer,

[Summer Sun]

 

[cheese]

Such a boring, uneventful period of weather. Wouldn't be so bad if the weather was at least reasonably nice but over the past few days we've had shower after shower moving in from the east (very unusual direction). 

If only it was.. no, I won't go there.

[Costa Del Fal]

A quiet but excellent spell of weather here. Apart from last Friday pretty much every day for the last 10 days or so has often been very sunny.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

The Sun has disappeared this week, although it has remained really dry apart from the lightest of showers.

[bobbydog]

4 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I would probably credit Dr Cohen in your post when quoting from aer,

Let's see if he's right before giving him any credit.....

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Let's see if he's right before giving him any credit.....

Oh absolutely. It was just a reply to a post in the mod thread.. I was reading Dr Cohen's analysis on aer last night,  and when I read that post in the mod thread today, I thought to myself that I had seen that somewhere before?! Folks will get found out if they try to pass off info as their own.. 

[bobbydog]

10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Oh absolutely. It was just a reply to a post in the mod thread.. I was reading Dr Cohen's analysis on aer last night,  and when I read that post in the mod thread today, I thought to myself that I had seen that somewhere before?! Folks will get found out if they try to pass off info as their own.. 

Fair enough but if it was duff info, would you want to take credit for it? Lol

[Frost HoIIow]

Well it's been a very dry month around here, just 1mm of rain has fallen so far which is very unusual for October. Even the next week or so doesn't look especially wet or typically Octoberish. Wouldn't be surprised if we get away with less than 10mm this month.

Edited October 14, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[damianslaw]

Mother nature has a habit of balancing herself out, somewhat, wouldn't be at all surprised to see the record wetness of Nov/Dec last year be followed by the complete opposite for the end of this year, its happened before many a time, wet periods quickly succeeded by very dry periods and vice versa.. 

[LetItSnow!]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Mother nature has a habit of balancing herself out, somewhat, wouldn't be at all surprised to see the record wetness of Nov/Dec last year be followed by the complete opposite for the end of this year, its happened before many a time, wet periods quickly succeeded by very dry periods and vice versa.. 

 

I agree. The past few years have been quite wet. It wouldn't surprise me if we went into a dry spell over the next year or so, like 1995, 2010, etc. Perhaps not as severe though...

[Dangerous55019]

Another beautiful day here in North East Wales
I'm sorry, but you can't beat a nice walk at this time of year when the weather is like this 
... And surely I can't be the only one who enjoys walking through the fallen leaves?