autumn Autumn 2016

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I think we all know that cold in October is very unlikely to be extreme and at best would only result in some frosty nights and mornings with snow even if it happened only ever likely to be marginal and short lived. However it would at least give us a feeling that Winter is approaching and to be frank make it seem much more seasonal. I always think that by Halloween it should feel cold as well and Bonfire Night is also a time that's associated with having to wrap up warm for. I know at the end of the day even if we had cold weather now it by no means indicates snowmagedon come actual Winter but it would at least psychologically give us the feeling that there could be a good Winter approaching. Whereas mild weather now can give you the feeling of more of the same. I know this isn't necessarily so but what it's like now can certainly either boost or knock confidence.

[Summer Sun]

A cooler week ahead with winds coming in from the east bringing some rain at times

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37601835

[iapennell]

On 08/10/2016 at 14:21, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

.Models now hinting at southerlies coming

 

BFTP

@BLAST FROM THE PAST. Indeed, that has been my contention that the strengthening Circumpolar Vortex later this month would dislodge the block over Scandianavia and restrict highest pressure towards central/eastern Europe with the consequence being that the prevailing wind would switch back to warm south/south-west winds.

There has been excitement about the prospect of northerlies and an Arctic plunge later this month from the Wettercentral.de 384-hour surface pressure charts. I saw it too- predicted for 23rd October and I thought "Nah! That won't happen- just see!". Funnily enough that "Arctic Plunge" has now disappeared from those forecast charts and they still have high-pressure over Scandinavia. My contention remains, though that later updates on Wetterzentral.de 384-hour surface-pressure charts will have that big hipgh slipping south into Europe with low-pressure once more near Iceland and we will see no more charts showing "Arctic Plunge" for a while after that.

Edited October 10, 2016 by iapennell

[bobbydog]

13 hours ago, iapennell said:

@BLAST FROM THE PAST. Indeed, that has been my contention that the strengthening Circumpolar Vortex later this month would dislodge the block over Scandianavia and restrict highest pressure towards central/eastern Europe with the consequence being that the prevailing wind would switch back to warm south/south-west winds.

There has been excitement about the prospect of northerlies and an Arctic plunge later this month from the Wettercentral.de 384-hour surface pressure charts. I saw it too- predicted for 23rd October and I thought "Nah! That won't happen- just see!". Funnily enough that "Arctic Plunge" has now disappeared from those forecast charts and they still have high-pressure over Scandinavia. My contention remains, though that later updates on Wettercentral.de 384-hour surface-pressure charts will have that big high slipping south into Europe with low-pressure once more near Iceland and we will see no more charts showing "Arctic Plunge" for a while after that.

Ian, whilst i admire your level of knowledge and expertise, you do seem like you enjoy attending firework displays with a full bladder...

[iapennell]

2 hours ago, bobbydog said:

Ian, whilst i admire your level of knowledge and expertise, you do seem like you enjoy attending firework displays with a full bladder...

 

@bobbydog I am a realist. I don't like mild wet weather in Autumn or winter any more than you do. Infact I am really disappointed that this run of easterlies we are having has completely failed to bring any widespread clear frosty nights. However, in recent autumns I too, have looked at the long term outlook on Wetterzentrale and have got my hopes up looking at modelled Arctic plunges a fortnight out only to have my hopes dashed as the model changes to continued mild south-westerly winds nearer the time. Wetterzentrale tends, in my view,  to over-estimate the propensity for northerly or easterly airstreams during the winter half -year. I have often looked at this site in the past to get my hopes up when the Met Office gives a continuous mild wet and windy outlook. The number of times I have then been disappointed when the mild run shows no sign of abating is sizeable!! 

I therefore predict cold winter weather, not on the basis of forecast charts, but from fundamentals underpinning the expected winter weather. Cold waters to the north, expanded pack-ice, La Nina and the QBO in a fairly strong Easterly phase (not to mention the need for a quiet Sun) would be the pre-conditions I would look for in October in order to predict a cold winter. We do have the quiet Sun and a weak La Nina, but the QBO is Westerly, sea-surface temperatures north and just west of Britain are rather warmer than usual and there is just enough pack-ice in the Arctic interior to encourage strong baroclinicity adjacent the warm seas but not enough ice-cover to encourage a strong Polar High to form. I cannot predict cold winters based on those fundamentals as they are at present. 

[weirpig]

Well the ever reliable CFS    is showing the next ice age for January next year  cold air galore   not a bad mean.

 

[bobbydog]

5 minutes ago, iapennell said:

 

@bobbydog I am a realist. I don't like mild wet weather in Autumn or winter any more than you do. Infact I am really disappointed that this run of easterlies we are having has completely failed to bring any widespread clear frosty nights. However, in recent autumns I too, have looked at the long term outlook on Wetterzentrale and have got my hopes up looking at modelled Arctic plunges a fortnight out only to have my hopes dashed as the model changes to continued mild south-westerly winds nearer the time. Wetterzentrale tends, in my view,  to over-estimate the propensity for northerly or easterly airstreams during the winter half -year. I have often looked at this site in the past to get my hopes up when the Met Office gives a continuous mild wet and windy outlook. The number of times I have then been disappointed when the mild run shows no sign of abating is sizeable!! 

I therefore predict cold winter weather, not on the basis of forecast charts, but from fundamentals underpinning the expected winter weather. Cold waters to the north, expanded pack-ice, La Nina and the QBO in a fairly strong Easterly phase (not to mention the need for a quiet Sun) would be the pre-conditions I would look for in October in order to predict a cold winter. We do have the quiet Sun and a weak La Nina, but the QBO is Westerly, sea-surface temperatures north and just west of Britain are rather warmer than usual and there is just enough pack-ice in the Arctic interior to encourage strong baroclinicity adjacent the warm seas but not enough ice-cover to encourage a strong Polar High to form. I cannot predict cold winters based on those fundamentals as they are at present. 

hi ian. i hope you realised i meant it 'tongue in cheek'. i'm not under any illusions about the british climate but i am an optimist. we have seen in recent years, conditions in the lead up to winter seemingly ideal for persistent cold, yet it has failed to materialise. as you (and most of us) well know, nothing is guaranteed weather-wise in the UK. anyway, most of us hope for a 62/63 style winter but know its unlikely. i think the vast majority would really just be happy with a couple of weeks worth of decent snow. i think this year, despite any negative signs, there are many more positives than last year so the chances of a snowy outbreak are much higher. even if it takes until february, i think the journey there will be more fun this year. lets hope!

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, iapennell said:

However, in recent autumns I too, have looked at the long term outlook on Wetterzentrale and have got my hopes up looking at modelled Arctic plunges a fortnight out only to have my hopes dashed as the model changes to continued mild south-westerly winds nearer the time. Wetterzentrale tends, in my view,  to over-estimate the propensity for northerly or easterly airstreams during the winter half -year. I have often looked at this site in the past to get my hopes up when the Met Office gives a continuous mild wet and windy outlook. The number of times I have then been disappointed when the mild run shows no sign of abating is sizeable!! 

I'm thoroughly confused by this statement. WZ is just a weather site giving access to lots of model runs yet you talk of it as a single entity. Surely you look across all models and ensembles to get a more varied picture?

[Yarmy]

43 minutes ago, iapennell said:

We do have the quiet Sun and a weak La Nina, but the QBO is Westerly, sea-surface temperatures north and just west of Britain are rather warmer than usual and there is just enough pack-ice in the Arctic interior to encourage strong baroclinicity adjacent the warm seas but not enough ice-cover to encourage a strong Polar High to form.

Let's consider another year.

Quiet Sun? Check.

La Nina? Check.

Westerly QBO? Check.

SST temps North and West of Britain ? Toasty! Check.

 

Arctic sea ice extent? 3rd lowest on record. Check.

I give you 2010: the year of the coldest December in 100 years, chock-a-block (ahem) with high latitude blocking. Um?

Besides, despite the low sea ice extent, warm SSTs etc, behold the high latitude blocking on offer right now:

 

Now, I'm not for one moment suggesting that Dec 2010 is going to happen again (in fact, it's extremely unlikely), but the point is that you can't just list a bunch of half-understood metrics and come up with a forecast unless you are adept at solving the Navier-Stokes equations in your head.

 

[Gael_Force]

4 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Now, I'm not for one moment suggesting that Dec 2010 is going to happen again (in fact, it's extremely unlikely), but the point is that you can't just list a bunch of half-understood metrics and come up with a forecast unless you are adept at solving the Navier-Stokes equations in your head.

Spot on!

Now, something I didn't realise but the positioning of the cold Nina pool is just as important as the Nino one. The Modoki was discussed at length last year but new research, Ian F posted, shows the Nina profile could make a drastic difference to NW Europe winter temperature.

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z

 

[Methuselah]

I always take the default (a degree either side of average) as my starting point, as that probably accounts for around 90% of our winters anyway...Whatever tips the balance, either way, so to speak, ought to be something that's out of the ordinary?

If my memory serves, didn't our last snowy winter follow the lowest ever extent of sea-ice?

[weirpig]

Cohen is going for a a larger than normal eurasian snow cover this October  hence a stronger siberian high  and higer probability of lower temperatures in the NH   not guarranteed  but another tick in the box.

[Polar Maritime]

Hail here at Clumber Park.

[Summer Sun]

Hurricane Nicole to influence our weather next week?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37611803

[damianslaw]

On 05/10/2016 at 16:07, Summer Sun said:

Struggling to post replies here - so sorry about odd way this is constructed. Anyhow we are enjoying a very quiet autumn so far and a very sunny one. We've had barely a trace of precipitation so far this month. The autumn colours are coming on brilliantly, with deep oranges and reds appearing - autumn colour peaks late October, so fingers crossed we don't see a gale in the next couple of weeks to blow the leaves away - half term week could prove excellent for those seeking lakeland colours.

[Mapantz]

It's nice to have a low-ish temp before the crack of dawn. It's currently 5.4 °C in this tropical part of the UK. Very nice!

[reef]

Its a bit of a funny easterly for October this. Due to the high SSTs (above 15C for the most part direct to the east) and low 850hPa temperatures (around freezing right now), there's actually enough of gradient to give sunshine and showers by day and clear, calm and cool conditions by night here. Its actually quite similar to a 'cold' easterly in winter, rather than the usual grey layer of stratus. In fact, the first 10 days of October have managed half of the average monthly sunshine hours.

Unfortunately, as the wind veers south-east through the week and imports warmer air over a shorter sea track we'll actually see worse weather than now. One of those annoying incidences in the cooler months. 

[Harve]

20 hours ago, iapennell said:

 

@bobbydog I am a realist. I don't like mild wet weather in Autumn or winter any more than you do. Infact I am really disappointed that this run of easterlies we are having has completely failed to bring any widespread clear frosty nights.

It's been one of the most pleasant Octobers I can remember here. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

9 hours ago, reef said:

Its a bit of a funny easterly for October this. Due to the high SSTs (above 15C for the most part direct to the east) and low 850hPa temperatures (around freezing right now), there's actually enough of gradient to give sunshine and showers by day and clear, calm and cool conditions by night here. Its actually quite similar to a 'cold' easterly in winter, rather than the usual grey layer of stratus. In fact, the first 10 days of October have managed half of the average monthly sunshine hours.

Unfortunately, as the wind veers south-east through the week and imports warmer air over a shorter sea track we'll actually see worse weather than now. One of those annoying incidences in the cooler months. 

I noticed that yesterday, the cumulonimbus clouds and the wind chill almost made it feel like a convective winter easterly at times albeit with rain. Here the over the last few days we've been seeing maxs of around 12/13c and mins around 4/5c which has been below average and I've found it quite enjoyable as a weather enthusiast. 

[cheeky_monkey]

22 hours ago, weirpig said:

Well the ever reliable CFS    is showing the next ice age for January next year  cold air galore   not a bad mean.

 

not sure that is right these are 850hpa so its not tht cold ..slightly below average at best ..certainly no ice age temps showing

[markyo]

Loving this Autumn so far,getting home to a 12c bedroom is bliss. That easterly breeze makes it fell so much fresher and more seasonal,won't last i know,dreading the return of the mild Atlantic crap,truly vile.

[MP-R]

11 minutes ago, markyo said:

Loving this Autumn so far,getting home to a 12c bedroom is bliss. That easterly breeze makes it fell so much fresher and more seasonal,won't last i know,dreading the return of the mild Atlantic crap,truly vile.

Nothing is nailed on though is it. If winds come from the S or SW, then yes, mild it is. Any other direction further into November and it won't be. Don't be too disheartened. Combination of decreasing light, not putting the heating on, wind from any direction and your location will ensure your house stays at your desired 'chill' level.

[markyo]

8 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Nothing is nailed on though is it. If winds come from the S or SW, then yes, mild it is. Any other direction further into November and it won't be. Don't be too disheartened. Combination of decreasing light, not putting the heating on, wind from any direction and your location will ensure your house stays at your desired 'chill' level.

Many thanks for that,us Northern cave dwellers love this time of year when it's like this,near enough proper Autumn. Just fear the Atlantic rearing it's ugly head and causing misery for so many as it has over the last few years with storm and flood damage,can deal with the mild even though i hate it but the distress it causes at this time and the following winter season with the battering it gives certain areas is more than many can bear i'm sure.....as for heating well that goes without saying,gas bill not effected for some time to come!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

On 10/10/2016 at 12:35, weirpig said:

Well the ever reliable CFS    is showing the next ice age for January next year  cold air galore   not a bad mean.

 

looks fairly normal that, seems to suggest PM air for north, milder Atlantic air for the south, low lying southern areas don't look all that cold

[Weather-history]

Showers can make to this side of the Pennines on an easterly