autumn Autumn 2016

[Mapantz]

22 minutes ago, markyo said:

You have no idea have you what you have just said,what a totally selfish statement!! If i had one follicle of hair long enough to be disturbed even by a ruddy hurricane i would be sooo happy! You are such a lucky chap!

You could always get some rabbits tattooed on your head?!

[markyo]

23 minutes ago, cheese said:

I love my hair. If you want I can take some of my mine away from the rest of my body and donate it to you, I don't want it (well, not all of it!).

Many,many thanks,any donation is well appreciated!......Possibly slightly off topic but what the hell,i really need the donations!! Hopefully sunday looks a reasonably day,fingers crossed clear and not to chilly..oh and no wind.! Saturday i agree looks crap,not good at all.

[markyo]

26 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

You could always get some rabbits tattooed on your head?!

Yep good idea...very stylish!!

[damianslaw]

Yes we have a spell of polar maritime air for the first time in ages it feels.. very fresh feeling day, and cool maxima. Temp at 6pm a chilly 10.7 degrees, and we are at 9.5 degrees now despite the wind and rain, indicative of the marked cooler upper air temps.

The next 3 days will have a distinct mid autumn feel to them, maxima here unlikely to get above 13 degrees, with potential for our first ground frost on Sunday, which will be nice to see, pity low pressure looks like spoiling things on Saturday.

The leaves are still mostly green, but expecting some changes over the days ahead, a few have blown off today adding to the more mid autumn feel to things.

[summer blizzard]

As we bask in the high pressure next week (though i suspect cloudy for the east) i thought this chart would interest you all showing the cool surface air developing to our east.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Looks like a proper early October weekend coming our way. I'm particularly pleased to see predicted temps of 7-9c on Sunday when I'm running in a 10-mile road race. I did a half-marathon in July in about 25c conditions - hard work. I re-ran the HM course 3 weeks ago in 12c temps and managed 11mins quicker !!

Bring it on....

[markyo]

Best 5 months of the year weatherwise coming up,lovely cool sleep filled nights,great for work(so long as not outdoors),...bliss

[Summer Sun]

56 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Looks like a proper early October weekend coming our way. I'm particularly pleased to see predicted temps of 7-9c on Sunday when I'm running in a 10-mile road race. I did a half-marathon in July in about 25c conditions - hard work. I re-ran the HM course 3 weeks ago in 12c temps and managed 11mins quicker !!

Bring it on....

 

I guess you're talking about the early morning temps when you say 7c to 9c for most Sunday will be a decent day we'll be in between weather systems and should have plenty of sunshine with temps in the mid teens quite widely by early afternoon

[Turnedoutniceagain]

14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I guess you're talking about the early morning temps when you say 7c to 9c for most Sunday will be a decent day we'll be in between weather systems and should have plenty of sunshine with temps in the mid teens quite widely by early afternoon

Yes, a 9:30 start - mercifully

[iapennell]

On 9/28/2016 at 17:23, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Meanwhile in FI, signs of an Easterly developing. Not sure if its desperately cold but there's a fair amount of blocking around to the North and East of us. 

Bearing in mind this is T384, although it fits with the Express headlines with 'COLD AND SNOW REACHING THE UK IN JUST WEEKS' 

Yes, just wait! Depressions will (surprisingly!) deepen in the NE Atlantic about 6th October over waters which are (remember) warmer than normal for the time of year. The strengthening NE Trade Winds blowing off cooling North Africa and South Asia will increase the westerly AAM of the Northern Hemisphere general circulation and there will be an increased "Need" for stronger Westerlies in higher-latitudes to counter-balance them. Ergo the North Atlantic depressions will strengthen with strong west and SW winds to the south of them, 500 mb thickness heights will fall over Scandinavia and the "blocks" will be swept away!! There will instead remain just enough high-pressure over Europe to ensure the Westerlies sweeping in from the North Atlantic angle in more from south/south-west, by the 10th October stupidly muggy, damp south/SW winds will blow across England and Wales: There will certainly be some warm sunshine for London and SE England but a good deal of cloud associated with what I would call "Muggy Buggy Weather" because it is good weather for midges, slugs on cabbages and spiders!! All those hoping for cool crisp autumn weather from the east with air-frosts to bring out very nice colours on the trees will be sorely disappointed .

Sorry to sound a tad cynical...................but this sort of disappointment- after earlier long-range charts get one's hopes up- has happened before in recent autumns!!! 

[iapennell]

@Ross Andrew Hemphill, I tend to ignore sensational headlines that appear in the likes of The Daily Express. They make sensational predictions like this about this time of year and it so frequently proves completely groundless that most folk tend to ignore these!

Remember when they predicted -15C and heavy snow in November a few years back? I think it was 2013, but the fact is that they make outlandish predictions and get it wrong so often that people don't bother with their predictions (and thus tend not to remember them). Its best to stick with a good basic understanding of meteorological facts and recent experience of what has happened in the recent past with similar fundamentals of sea-surface temperature patterns, along with the global wind-patterns.

What do we know: The far North Atlantic is warmer than usual- this encourages deeper depressions to move into the area.

The NE Trade Winds strengthen at this time of year in response to seasonal cooling over North Africa and southern Asia. This is because of a strengthening of the tropical and subtropical Hadley Circulation and it means stronger (and strengthening) of westerlies high-over the subtropics for which there must be a sink absorbing the excess westerly momentum. This also points to stronger westerlies at higher latitudes and a warm far North Atlantic will offer little "resistance" to these westerlies occurring there.

The fringes of the Arctic are also unseasonally warm so it is likely that deep depressions will travel further north than normal, but mild south-westerlies (as they are likely to be on reaching Britain) are not liable to miss this country.

Unless there is some major development, such as a patch of very cold water developing across the far North Atlantic and a strong Lá Nina episode seriously weakening the Hadley Circulation by cooling the Equatorial Pacific (or a powerful blast of cosmic rays seriously disrupting the subtropical jet-stream and thus removing temporarily the Need for surface Westerlies at higher latitudes)  that would give one cause to think high-pressure is more likely to occur to the north of Britain with any depressions deflected into the Mediterranean I would take any prediction of "weeks of bitter easterlies" and "-15C cold and snow" made in a sensationalist tabloid at the end of September with a big pinch of salt!      

[cheese]

Well thankfully tomorrow isn't look quite as bad as it was a couple of days ago.. now highs of 14C instead of highs of 12C, and dry instead of wet.

Liking the look of high pressure - keep the deep Atlantic lows and cold well away for now. No point in that kind of nonsense until November at the earliest.

Edited September 30, 2016 by cheese

[Nick L]

Never understood the concept of there not being a "point" to a given type of weather.

Edited September 30, 2016 by Nick L

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

23 hours ago, cheese said:

The wind is messing up my hair AGAIN. It did the same thing yesterday. CURSE THE WIND. It takes a long time to look this good so I don't appreciate the weather ruining things for me.

Thank God its not only me! Its hard enough trying to tame an afro never mind walking into school with it a complete mess! I cant even put my hood up because it flattens it 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

1 hour ago, iapennell said:

@Ross Andrew Hemphill, I tend to ignore sensational headlines that appear in the likes of The Daily Express. They make sensational predictions like this about this time of year and it so frequently proves completely groundless that most folk tend to ignore these!

Remember when they predicted -15C and heavy snow in November a few years back? I think it was 2013, but the fact is that they make outlandish predictions and get it wrong so often that people don't bother with their predictions (and thus tend not to remember them). Its best to stick with a good basic understanding of meteorological facts and recent experience of what has happened in the recent past with similar fundamentals of sea-surface temperature patterns, along with the global wind-patterns.

What do we know: The far North Atlantic is warmer than usual- this encourages deeper depressions to move into the area.

The NE Trade Winds strengthen at this time of year in response to seasonal cooling over North Africa and southern Asia. This is because of a strengthening of the tropical and subtropical Hadley Circulation and it means stronger (and strengthening) of westerlies high-over the subtropics for which there must be a sink absorbing the excess westerly momentum. This also points to stronger westerlies at higher latitudes and a warm far North Atlantic will offer little "resistance" to these westerlies occurring there.

The fringes of the Arctic are also unseasonally warm so it is likely that deep depressions will travel further north than normal, but mild south-westerlies (as they are likely to be on reaching Britain) are not liable to miss this country.

Unless there is some major development, such as a patch of very cold water developing across the far North Atlantic and a strong Lá Nina episode seriously weakening the Hadley Circulation by cooling the Equatorial Pacific (or a powerful blast of cosmic rays seriously disrupting the subtropical jet-stream and thus removing temporarily the Need for surface Westerlies at higher latitudes)  that would give one cause to think high-pressure is more likely to occur to the north of Britain with any depressions deflected into the Mediterranean I would take any prediction of "weeks of bitter easterlies" and "-15C cold and snow" made in a sensationalist tabloid at the end of September with a big pinch of salt!      

Don't worry, I know that the Express are just AWFUL!!!!

 

[Hocus Pocus]

2 hours ago, iapennell said:

@Ross Andrew Hemphill, I tend to ignore sensational headlines that appear in the likes of The Daily Express. They make sensational predictions like this about this time of year and it so frequently proves completely groundless that most folk tend to ignore these!

Remember when they predicted -15C and heavy snow in November a few years back? I think it was 2013, but the fact is that they make outlandish predictions and get it wrong so often that people don't bother with their predictions (and thus tend not to remember them). Its best to stick with a good basic understanding of meteorological facts and recent experience of what has happened in the recent past with similar fundamentals of sea-surface temperature patterns, along with the global wind-patterns.

What do we know: The far North Atlantic is warmer than usual- this encourages deeper depressions to move into the area.

The NE Trade Winds strengthen at this time of year in response to seasonal cooling over North Africa and southern Asia. This is because of a strengthening of the tropical and subtropical Hadley Circulation and it means stronger (and strengthening) of westerlies high-over the subtropics for which there must be a sink absorbing the excess westerly momentum. This also points to stronger westerlies at higher latitudes and a warm far North Atlantic will offer little "resistance" to these westerlies occurring there.

The fringes of the Arctic are also unseasonally warm so it is likely that deep depressions will travel further north than normal, but mild south-westerlies (as they are likely to be on reaching Britain) are not liable to miss this country.

Unless there is some major development, such as a patch of very cold water developing across the far North Atlantic and a strong Lá Nina episode seriously weakening the Hadley Circulation by cooling the Equatorial Pacific (or a powerful blast of cosmic rays seriously disrupting the subtropical jet-stream and thus removing temporarily the Need for surface Westerlies at higher latitudes)  that would give one cause to think high-pressure is more likely to occur to the north of Britain with any depressions deflected into the Mediterranean I would take any prediction of "weeks of bitter easterlies" and "-15C cold and snow" made in a sensationalist tabloid at the end of September with a big pinch of salt!      

The EC seasonal and GLOSEA5 are seeing something at this stage of the Autumn Ian, now granted its early days and a lot can happen from now until winter but for the MetO chief forecaster to be quite bullish about the prospects of October through to December must mean  they're seeing something of importance?

[markyo]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

Well thankfully tomorrow isn't look quite as bad as it was a couple of days ago.. now highs of 14C instead of highs of 12C, and dry instead of wet.

Liking the look of high pressure - keep the deep Atlantic lows and cold well away for now. No point in that kind of nonsense until November at the earliest.

I think the correct phrase for this weekend is "useable". Probably will struggle by me to get much over 12c but still very pleasant for most. To be honest I feel a gradual run in to November looks on the cards,hopefully resulting in some decent cold for once for the start of best season of the year!

[Matthew.]

3 hours ago, iapennell said:

Unless there is some major development, such as a patch of very cold water developing across the far North Atlantic and a strong Lá Nina episode seriously weakening the Hadley Circulation by cooling the Equatorial Pacific (or a powerful blast of cosmic rays seriously disrupting the subtropical jet-stream and thus removing temporarily the Need for surface Westerlies at higher latitudes)  that would give one cause to think high-pressure is more likely to occur to the north of Britain with any depressions deflected into the Mediterranean I would take any prediction of "weeks of bitter easterlies" and "-15C cold and snow" made in a sensationalist tabloid at the end of September with a big pinch of salt!      

A SSW event in November could flush cold arctic air to mid-latitudes which is one possibility for this autumn season development causing a negative NAO. Longer range models hinting pressure high to the North as Autumn progresses. Is there a hint of a Atlantic Tripole developing?

[AderynCoch]

Gone warm again here. 23C today. I'll probably be in shorts tomorrow.

[Frost HoIIow]

Interesting how the Atlantic doesn't look like having a big impact going forward, all the more with October normally a pretty unsettled month here in the NW. Pressure remaining rather high to our east for a while. As the continent cools and as long as we keep dragging in east or se winds then temps will go below average after mid month giving a chilly feel to say the least. Obviously this all depends on how long the block to the east holds and ex-hurricanes thrown into the mix.

Edited September 30, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[cheese]

2 hours ago, markyo said:

I think the correct phrase for this weekend is "useable". Probably will struggle by me to get much over 12c but still very pleasant for most. To be honest I feel a gradual run in to November looks on the cards,hopefully resulting in some decent cold for once for the start of best season of the year!

It will certainly be usable but pleasant isn't the word I'd use. Chilly, seems more appropriate. People are starting to wear coats now and talk of the heating coming on is increasing day by day.. it's the bloody wind, that strips the house of heat.

Edited September 30, 2016 by cheese

[lassie23]

Now moving into the OFI season.

[markyo]

49 minutes ago, cheese said:

It will certainly be usable but pleasant isn't the word I'd use. Chilly, seems more appropriate. People are starting to wear coats now and talk of the heating coming on is increasing day by day.. it's the bloody wind, that strips the house of heat.

Definitions of pleasant we will always disagree about but the wind effecting the heat loss of a house,yep spot on,by far the biggest factor in heat loss from any exposed house,every bodies house is different so suffers differently. We should do well to take that in mind! As for the coats and heating....still in me shorts and heating well that's never going to happen in the near future!

[Nick L]

Still plenty of residual heat in our house. Can't imagine the heating will be needed for at least another fortnight or so.

[DAVID SNOW]

13 minutes ago, markyo said:

Definitions of pleasant we will always disagree about but the wind effecting the heat loss of a house,yep spot on,by far the biggest factor in heat loss from any exposed house,every bodies house is different so suffers differently. We should do well to take that in mind! As for the coats and heating....still in me shorts and heating well that's never going to happen in the near future!

When it does turn too cold for shorts, your gonna need an angle grinder to remove yours.