autumn Autumn 2016

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Brr, cold in the countryside. 

[Weather-history]

A traditional autumnal start to the day: fog

 

[sundog]

A nice autumnal feel to this morning here with it being quite misty. Temp 9.2c

[markyo]

So much better start to the working week after last week,less tiring,more energy,no stuffy headache....need i go on! 

[Singularity]

For whatever reason, the latest from CFSv2 is keen on a very settled first half of October:

You may dream of chilly nights, foggy mornings and mellow sunshine, but you may not take this model too seriously 

Edited September 19, 2016 by Singularity

[damianslaw]

12 minutes ago, Singularity said:

For whatever reason, the latest from CFSv2 is keen on a very settled first half of October:

You may dream of chilly nights, foggy mornings and mellow sunshine, but you may not take this model too seriously 

I thought it was going for a westerly atlantic dominant month.. 

[Singularity]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

I thought it was going for a westerly atlantic dominant month.. 

The monthly looks more like that, albeit with a suggestion of the flow tending more toward the NW at times:

Big changes in the second half perhaps? 

[iapennell]

Remarkable general agreement between Matt Hugo's recent Autumn 2016 outlook and my (updated) outlook for the season at the beginning of this month :

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3400&title=Autumn+2016

[Singularity]

The chart Matt uses is based on a single run of the CFSv2 rather than a multi-run mean such is the chart I posted yesterday - but the general theme is similar so the model seems to be holding fairly steady at the moment.

There are hints of a generally north-westerly pattern from GloSea5 too. Just how soon it sets in, though, is far from clear. Note that by 'generally' I mean with the usual variations around, flows from the NW being the most frequent.

The question is then whether to place much stock in the models or not. That's where the research comes in and where I am seeing some very interesting signals - but as you know, I can't give those away, sorry!

[NorthYorksWeather]

Plenty of cloud cover over the last 36 hours resulting in not much daily temperature change. Yesterdays max/min was 15/13c, and so far today 13/12c, not much change over the coming days apart from Friday morning where I could see the coldest temp of the Autumn so far. Speaking of which a possibility for northern/western areas to see some ground frosts early next week as high pressure briefly topples over us.

Edited September 20, 2016 by vizzy2004

[Summer Sun]

 

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

 

very earlier signs maybe of a more average October on the horizon. Going forward Judah Cohen however with caution seems to think this winter will see more of a weaker polar jet  perhaps enabling more blocking, We shall see

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[Summer Sun]

Another cracking day here in the NE some patchy high-level cloud around but plenty of sunshine too and feeling very pleasant in it

[Nick L]

20 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Good, had enough of above average temperatures.

[MP-R]

Certainly feels autumnal out there today. Dull, slightly mist and only 13C. A far cry from last week's summery weather - in fact this time last week I was watching a bunch of thunderstorms trundle northwards towards Bristol. What a difference a week makes.

[Summer Sun]

15.1c and rising here in Darlington the sunshine makes all the difference this time of year

This time last week it was almost 30c in parts of the south the same areas 1 week on will be lucky to reach 20c

Edited September 20, 2016 by Summer Sun

[markyo]

The joy i felt today was something special,over 5hrs in 36c plus temps in a room with no ventilation ,no ac obviously,mosture dripping off the walls and to walk out to that loving wrap of cool 15c air was fantastic,long long may in continue.....very selfish i know.

[Weather-history]

Cumulus clouds hit a ceiling late this morning

 

[lassie23]

Looks like autumn is going to last into December again.

[Methuselah]

I don't know whether I have shingles or some kind of heat-rash? But, whatever it is, the cooler temperatures are most welcome. Thank you, God!

[Ian Ballinger]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Looks like autumn is going to last into December again.

Isn't that normal?

[Nick L]

45 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I don't know whether I have shingles or some kind of heat-rash? But, whatever it is, the cooler temperatures are most welcome. Thank you, God!

Lovely seeing the thermometer in my room read temperatures sub-20c!

[lassie23]

22 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

Isn't that normal?

yup lol

[Cheshire Freeze]

12 hours ago, Nick L said:

Good, had enough of above average temperatures.

I noticed the CFS runs I've been looking at over the past month or so have predominantly suggesting temps at or below average for October with a high pressure anomaly not too far away to the NW or NE.

With the anomaly being close to the UK it could be suggestive of frost/fog at night and pleasant days.

Edited September 20, 2016 by CreweCold

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

crooooooooo